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FXUS64 KBMX 180016 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 716 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase again during the overnight hours, mainly in southern and southeastern counties. A QLCS/squall line is expected to traverse parts of South Alabama and will need to be monitored closely as to the northward extent of this activity into the southeastern counties. Patchy fog is possible in some areas overnight, especially north and east.

Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Activity should initiate during the midday hours across the northwestern counties and move eastward/southeastward across Central Alabama into the late afternoon. Potential for SBCAPE values of 1000- 1500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0-7.2 C/km will support strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds.

12

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

An upper level short wave will rotate across north Alabama Saturday night. Models indicate scattered storms developing across north Alabama Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover on Saturday may limit diurnal based instability, but cooling 500mb temperatures will help produce surface based CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Will maintain a marginal risk of severe storms for all of Central Alabama Saturday afternoon and early evening, but areal coverage of storms will be higher along and north of I-20. Rain should dissipate by midnight Saturday night with mostly rain free conditions Sunday through Wednesday. A building ridge early next week will produce above normal temperatures.

58/rose

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2024

Early this evening, the terminals were at a reprieve from the active weather. But the unsettled weather will continue into Saturday. All terminals were reporting MVFR ceilings and these ceilings will lower further during the evening hours. Mainly between 05-10z, IFR ceilings and the mention of some showers/storms reenter the forecast. These lower ceilings and rain chances remain in through 16-19z and then we see the ceilings rise to mainly MVFR. There may be a period where a few sites reach VFR for a stretch. Showers/storms remain in through the end of the period. Showers/storms finally trend downward Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds will remain light throughout with a combination of variable and southwest.

75

FIRE WEATHER

Lingering showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will track across south Alabama after midnight. An upper level short wave trough will bring a chance of thunderstorms to north Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. Max RH tonight above 90 percent and Min RH on Saturday 65 to 70 percent. Decreasing rain chances on Sunday along with warmer daytime temperatures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 62 81 60 85 / 40 80 40 20 Anniston 64 81 62 84 / 40 80 40 30 Birmingham 65 82 64 86 / 40 80 40 10 Tuscaloosa 65 83 63 87 / 40 80 40 10 Calera 65 81 63 85 / 40 80 40 10 Auburn 66 79 65 83 / 70 70 30 20 Montgomery 67 82 65 86 / 70 70 20 10 Troy 68 80 63 84 / 70 70 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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