Tempe, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tempe, AZ

June 24, 2024 5:32 AM MST (12:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM
Moonrise 10:26 PM   Moonset 7:51 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 241149 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 449 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

UPDATE
12Z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Daily thunderstorm chances will persist through most of this week due to enhanced moisture levels lingering across the region, as temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal.
Building high pressure will warm temperatures by a few degrees going through the middle of the week, resulting hot and humid conditions over the next week.

DISCUSSION
Showers and some thunderstorms continue to persist early this morning across central to southern Arizona. Water vapor imagery shows continued mid to high level clouds draped across the region, as subtropical ridging centered over Texas is advecting in enhanced moisture levels from the subtropics from a previous tropical disturbance that has moved onshore of central Mexico.
PWATs continue to run upwards of 200% of normal, as latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts PWAT's as high as 1.90" across southcentral and southwestern Arizona.

These enhanced moisture levels will result in more shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening once again across the region. However, relative to the previous several days, the potential is trending downward as the anomalous moisture axis migrates westward today. More scattered to mostly clear conditions should be in store today, so diurnally driven convection could become more of a factor. The latest HRRR shows mean surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg over the higher terrain areas of southcentral Arizona, so there is sufficient instability. However, boundary layer capping and subsidence aloft will be limiting factors towards convective development as we progress through the week. For today, shower and thunderstorm chances continue to run around 25-45% across the higher terrain, but only 10-20% for the lower deserts across southcentral Arizona. The mean low to mid- level flow is much weaker today, so the potential of showers and storms migrating into the lower elevations will be dependent on cold pool maintenance, which, given the elevated moisture levels, will not be favorable to pack much of a punch should any outflows reach the lower deserts (similar to what happened overnight, where only weak showers developed across the valley floor of the Phoenix metro). That being said, there are a couple of HRRR members painting 40+ dbZ cores that migrate from the east into the Phoenix metro late this evening, so will have to keep an eye on how things evolve throughout today. Strong outflow wind probabilities continue to run low as HRRR probabilities of 35+ mph wind gusts remain around 10-30% across the higher terrain and lower elevations of southcentral Arizona.

Shower and storm potential is anticipated to continue to diminish going through this week, as the aforementioned strong ridging centered over Texas will continue to build westward across the region. The peak height anomalies, as depicted by the ensembles, is set to occur Tuesday into Wednesday, as mid-level heights build between 594-597 dam. Temperatures will trend warmer as a result, with most lower desert locations seeing highs in excess of 110 degrees by the middle of this week. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will continue, with localized (>10% areal coverage) of Major HeatRisk across the region. Despite PWAT's generally in excess of 1.50" across the region, this stronger ridging will again inhibit daily thunderstorm activity going through the middle of the week, as NBM PoP/thunderstorm chances decrease to around 20-30% for higher terrain areas of southcentral Arizona and 5-15% for lower desert areas by Wednesday. As moisture levels continue to wane going through the rest of the week, shower/storm chances diminish to less than 10% (10-20%) for the lower deserts (higher terrain) by Friday.

These moisture levels will diminish due to a troughing feature that will skate across western CONUS mid to late week, ushering in more dry westerly flow to the region. Ensembles are in much better agreement of this trough lowering heights through at least Friday, with slight cooling going into this weekend. Cluster analysis shows mid-level heights beginning to rebound over the weekend, with generally good agreement through at least Saturday.
There is more spread regarding a secondary wave moving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday onward, which will dictate whether the building heights will continue into next week, or if temperatures may remain moderated, but still above normal, during this period.

AVIATION
Updated at 1150Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Expect a few hrs of light and variable winds at KPHX early this morning before westerly flow becomes reestablished by 15Z-16Z. Westerly winds will continue throughout the day at all metro terminals.
Convection is expected to develop again this afternoon and early evening across the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix.
There is a low chance (<20%) that outflows from distant storms will reach KPHX later this evening, however most model guidance suggests winds will continue to remain westerly tonight. Abundant mid to high lvl clouds will slowly become FEW to SCT through this afternoon before thickening up again this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

At KIPL, winds should remain light out of the southeast through much of the day before shifting out of the southwest around sunset. At KBLH, expect southerly winds to prevail with gusts reaching 20 kts at times this afternoon. Any convection that develops this afternoon should remain east of the Colorado River.
FEW-SCT cirrus will continue to pass over the area into tonight.

FIRE WEATHER
Monsoonal moisture will continue to result in daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity, with the best chances for activity across the higher terrain areas. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish throughout the week, as high pressure builds into the region. With the elevated moisture in place, MinRH values through early this week will range between 30-40% across the far eastern districts to between 15-25% across the western districts before slowly drying into the middle to latter half of next week. Winds will follow their typical daily tendencies, with gusty outflows from any thunderstorm activity anticipated over the next several days. Temperatures through today will average near to slightly above normal before increasing some heading into the middle of this week. Chances for wetting rains will generally remain around 10-20% for the higher terrain areas and 5-10% for the lower deserts of south-central Arizona through the first half of the week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.




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