Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kennedy, AL
December 5, 2023 7:05 PM CST (01:05 UTC)
Sunrise 6:41AM Sunset 4:46PM Moonrise 12:32AM Moonset 1:38PM
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 052354 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 554 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region as it moves east across New England through tomorrow. Broad ridging over the western US will move eastward with high pressure building over Central Alabama. Winds will take on more of a northwesterly heading as the ridge builds eastward producing a couple days of region-wide cold air advection.
Some high clouds will accompany the shortwave passage to our northeast, but otherwise skies will be sunny with a moisture-starved airmass in place. Temperatures will trend cooler tomorrow behind the shortwave with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today then in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south for tomorrow. Winds will be a bit breezier than normal tonight and some high clouds will exist across the northern portions of the area, but still leaned on the colder side of guidance due to the strong cold air advection. Lows will range from the lower to upper 30s with locally cooler spots in the valley locations.
86/Martin
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A ridge axis is forecast to transit the region Thursday into Friday, allowing for continued fair weather.
Meanwhile, a jet streak across the Intermountain West should amplify 500mb troughing with downstream surface cyclogenesis. On Saturday, increasing PWAT values and mid-level ripples ahead of the main trough and front should produce some shower activity by the afternoon hours. It'll also be breezy from the southeast through the day. Though timing differences still exist amongst 12z guidance, the brunt of rain and thunderstorms still looks to favor late Saturday into early Sunday.
Strong wind shear will occur due to deep-layer jet dynamics and veering, though forecast soundings continue to indicate limited instability. Given the amount of forcing, we could see a line of convection evolve in addition to preceding showers. A narrow ribbon of weak instability may occur against the line, possibly becoming increasingly stunted with eastward extent. If this scenario pans out, we could end up with a low-end severe risk sometime late Saturday for part of central Alabama -- a typical high shear/low instability weather system. This is something we'll pinpoint as we get closer.
High pressure will quickly build across the region behind the Saturday weather system, with quiet weather conditions forecast as we start the new work week.
89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A cold front will move through central Alabama this evening. Winds will start off west southwest4-9kts and swing around to the northwest overnight. These winds will increase to near 10kts with some gusts 15-20kts. Winds veer even more on Wednesday to the north northwest and remain near 10kts with some gusts. Behind the front, winds around 2k ft increase to near 35kts. It appears that these winds will stay below LLWS criteria late tonight and early Wednesday. Overall, the airmass stays rather dry. But a few MVFR clouds will encroach on BHM and added brief tempo group for ceilings. Otherwise, VFR.
75
FIRE WEATHER
Fire weather elements are not forecast to hit criteria over the coming days. 20-foot winds should average between 5-10 mph during the daytime hours with rain-free conditions. A widespread rain looks to occur Saturday and Saturday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 34 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 35 52 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 36 51 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 35 54 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 36 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 37 53 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 37 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 39 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 554 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region as it moves east across New England through tomorrow. Broad ridging over the western US will move eastward with high pressure building over Central Alabama. Winds will take on more of a northwesterly heading as the ridge builds eastward producing a couple days of region-wide cold air advection.
Some high clouds will accompany the shortwave passage to our northeast, but otherwise skies will be sunny with a moisture-starved airmass in place. Temperatures will trend cooler tomorrow behind the shortwave with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today then in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south for tomorrow. Winds will be a bit breezier than normal tonight and some high clouds will exist across the northern portions of the area, but still leaned on the colder side of guidance due to the strong cold air advection. Lows will range from the lower to upper 30s with locally cooler spots in the valley locations.
86/Martin
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A ridge axis is forecast to transit the region Thursday into Friday, allowing for continued fair weather.
Meanwhile, a jet streak across the Intermountain West should amplify 500mb troughing with downstream surface cyclogenesis. On Saturday, increasing PWAT values and mid-level ripples ahead of the main trough and front should produce some shower activity by the afternoon hours. It'll also be breezy from the southeast through the day. Though timing differences still exist amongst 12z guidance, the brunt of rain and thunderstorms still looks to favor late Saturday into early Sunday.
Strong wind shear will occur due to deep-layer jet dynamics and veering, though forecast soundings continue to indicate limited instability. Given the amount of forcing, we could see a line of convection evolve in addition to preceding showers. A narrow ribbon of weak instability may occur against the line, possibly becoming increasingly stunted with eastward extent. If this scenario pans out, we could end up with a low-end severe risk sometime late Saturday for part of central Alabama -- a typical high shear/low instability weather system. This is something we'll pinpoint as we get closer.
High pressure will quickly build across the region behind the Saturday weather system, with quiet weather conditions forecast as we start the new work week.
89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A cold front will move through central Alabama this evening. Winds will start off west southwest4-9kts and swing around to the northwest overnight. These winds will increase to near 10kts with some gusts 15-20kts. Winds veer even more on Wednesday to the north northwest and remain near 10kts with some gusts. Behind the front, winds around 2k ft increase to near 35kts. It appears that these winds will stay below LLWS criteria late tonight and early Wednesday. Overall, the airmass stays rather dry. But a few MVFR clouds will encroach on BHM and added brief tempo group for ceilings. Otherwise, VFR.
75
FIRE WEATHER
Fire weather elements are not forecast to hit criteria over the coming days. 20-foot winds should average between 5-10 mph during the daytime hours with rain-free conditions. A widespread rain looks to occur Saturday and Saturday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 34 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 35 52 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 36 51 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 35 54 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 36 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 37 53 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 37 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 39 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
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Wind History from CBM
(wind in knots)
Columbus AFB, MS,
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