Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Murrells Inlet, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:34PM Saturday January 18, 2020 1:44 AM EST (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 12:43PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1128 Pm Est Fri Jan 17 2020
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E around 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 1128 Pm Est Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A slowly relaxing pressure gradient will result in slowly diminishing winds and subsiding seas late this evening and overnight. The high will slide offshore Saturday, resulting in a brief period of lighter winds. A cold front will push off the coast and across the local waters Sunday morning, and to well offshore during Sun. In it's wake, a strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will affect the local waters through the early to mid-week period of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Murrells Inlet, SC
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location: 33.54, -79.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 180514 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1214 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slip offshore late tonight, allowing for a brief weekend warmup prior to the next cold frontal passage Sun morning. Scattered showers will occur ahead of the front from late Sat afternoon up until it's passage Sunday morning. Much colder temperatures will follow during the upcoming work-week as air, of Arctic origin, dips into the Carolinas.

UPDATE. Public: Latest fcst looking aok. No major changes needed or expected. Will however tweak a few elements based on latest observations and resulting trends, but again no categorical changes needed.

Marine:

Latest winds and seas across the ILM NC Waters have dropped below SCA thresholds and as a result the SCA has been allowed to expire at 6 pm. This overall diminishing and subsiding trend will continue, with the ILM SC Waters still progged to fall below SCA thresholds by Midnight tonight. The elongated center of sfc high pressure will drop into the Carolinas tonight, resulting in the sfc pg relaxing-some. Significant seas will peak early this evening followed by a subsiding trend due to the reduction and size of the short period wind-driven waves. An underlying 2 to 3 foot Easterly swell at 9 to 11 second periods will persist overnight into Sat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Dry wx continues through tonight with strong sfc high pressure centered just NE of the local area. With diminishing winds, temps will bottom out in the low/mid 30s most areas, except upr 20s in the normally coldest spots. As the high slides eastwards, the NE flow tonight will transition to SE on Sat allowing for warmers temps and dewpoints than today . highs in the 50s to near 60. After a dry morning, rain chances will increase a bit through the day as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Not much in the way of forcing during the daytime period, so PoPs are capped in the 20-40% range, highest near the coast where low-level convergence will be greatest. Better chance for rain arrives after midnight Sat night (50-60% PoPs everywhere) with the fropa, but not expecting heavy pcpn.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Majority of the rain will be offshore by Sunday morning, with a few lingering light showers possible. Cold front moves through Sunday morning with winds shifting to the NW and dewpoints dropping fast throughout the day. Cold advection, however, lags behind and doesn't really set in until Sunday night, allowing temps Sunday to rise to low 60s under clearing skies. Temps drop fast to around 30 degrees Sunday night as surface high pressure builds in over Central US. Temps around 10 degrees below normal Monday and Monday night due to strong cold advection of arctic air, with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Tuesday and Tuesday night is setting up to be one of the coldest days so far this season, with highs in the low 40s and lows around 25 degrees. A strong upper level trough digs down across the SE US Tuesday into Tuesday night, that may lead to some clouds and a possible flurry or two. Will be pretty tough though given very dry air in place at the time. The European model has a low pressure system develop off the east coast Wednesday through Thursday keeping precip close to our coast, but favoring a more dry forecast for now. Air mass will begin to modify Wed night into Thurs as ridge builds over the Southeast and surface high shifts slowly eastward. Overall, will see a rebound toward normal or above normal temps Thurs into Fri, with any rain holding off until possibly this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with MVFR ceilings possible later in the period as warm front lifts north ahead of an approaching cold front. Main concern is the possibility of low level speed shear from the SSW at 2000 feet at between 40 and 45 kts. Any developing shower activity is low confidence at this time, but a vicinity shower cannot be ruled out.

Extended Outlook . Showers possible Saturday night into early Sunday, could briefly lower ceilings and vsby to MVFR early Sunday. Wind shift to the north/northwest Sunday with VFR conditions early next week.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening, with gusts to 25 kt and 6 ft seas continuing out 10-20 nm. Improving marine conditions then for late tonight and Sat as sfc high pres retreats to the E and CAA ends. Winds and seas then ramp up again Sat night ahead of the next cold front, with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions expected by the evening hours, with SW winds gusting to 25 kt and seas again up to ~6 ft. Dominant periods in the 5-6 second range.

Small Craft conditions likely continue through at least Sunday afternoon. SW winds early Sunday around 20 kts become NW by the evening around 15 kts, with seas 5-7 ft slowly decreasing to 3-5 ft by Sunday night, a 7 sec SW swell. High pressure builds over central US Sunday night, setting up northerly winds across our area Mon- Thurs. Some guidance hinting at a development of an offshore low late Tues into Wed that would lead to winds increasing to possible SCA criteria, but confidence low. Winds veer to northeasterly Thursday and then easterly on Friday as the aforementioned surface high shifts north of our area and then further offshore to the northeast allowing return flow to develop. Seas 2-4 ft Monday through Friday, with occasional 5 footers late Tuesday and again on Thursday, predominantly 5-6 sec NE wind wave.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ254-256.

SYNOPSIS . DCH UPDATE . DCH NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . MK MARINE . DCH/MAS/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 13 mi57 min 41°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 14 mi120 min E 11 48°F 1036 hPa33°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi97 min E 14 G 19 41°F 55°F1037.6 hPa
41119 39 mi55 min 55°F2 ft
SSBN7 39 mi53 min 2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC14 mi49 minNNE 610.00 miFair40°F21°F49%1036.5 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC20 mi70 minNE 310.00 miFair37°F24°F60%1036.9 hPa
Georgetown County Airport , SC20 mi50 minN 610.00 miFair37°F24°F60%1036.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6W6W8W9W7W7W106W9W12
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2 days agoW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE4CalmCalmE3SE5S7SE5CalmCalmSE4S7S7SW4SW4SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Wachesaw Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wachesaw Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.311.82.42.82.82.521.50.90.50.20.30.81.52.12.52.52.31.91.30.80.3

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:03 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:16 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.44.24.54.33.72.81.80.90.40.30.81.82.83.643.93.42.61.70.80.1-0.20.21.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.