Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Balboa, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Morning Update
Light NE and E winds have made it to the coast this morning. Winds will turn back onshore by this afternoon. We will see another warm day out there with high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average. Communities with the highest chances (60-85%) to hit the 80 degree mark will be Palm Springs, Lake Elsinore, and El Cajon vicinities. Onshore flow will increase into Sunday leading to cooling and an increasing chance for dense fog near the coast by Sunday morning.

The forecast for the Santa Ana wind event this coming Monday through Wednesday looks to be on track. Confidence is increasing on more elevated winds to impact northern areas (IE and OC), so forecast winds have gone up some in these regions with gusts 25-45 MPH. Latest hi-res guidance bringing in these winds a bit earlier as well, but still some discrepancies on model data when winds will increase either Monday morning or a bit later in the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this event for all mountains areas, the IE, and the San Diego valleys. If in these areas, please prepare for gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions, most notably in passes and foothills.

.Previous Discussion (314 AM Saturday)...

Weak Santa Ana winds are expected this morning, with peak gusts up to 30 mph. Highs today will be 7 to 15 degrees above normal for inland locations. The pattern changes slightly for Sunday, with the ridging aloft weakening as an area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. That will result in temperatures 5 to 8 degrees cooler than Saturday. Another round of fog is likely over portions of the coastal waters and along the immediate coast into Sunday morning.

By Monday the upper level low pressure over the northern United States will dig into the Intermountain West. In addition, a surface high will build over the Great Basin, sparking another round of moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds. East to northeast winds are expected with peak gusts up to 60 mph on mountain foothills and through passes. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible into the valleys. Very dry air is expected in conjunction with the winds, bringing a period of critical fire weather conditions. Winds are expected to peak late Monday night into Tuesday, becoming more localized into Wednesday. Temperatures west of the mountains will generally stay above normal, with Wednesday the warmest day of the week. Thursday will be a few degrees cooler west of the mountains, and with a few degrees of additional warming for the mountains and deserts.

For the end of the week, there remains some uncertainty in the upper level pattern. For Thursday, about 66% of ensemble solutions show an upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest, with the other solutions indicating some degree of ridging. For Friday and Saturday, the ridging solution becomes the minority with only 13% of solutions showing ridging on Friday and 18% on Saturday. The remainder of solutions show some degree of troughing aloft although there is uncertainty surrounding the strength and position of the trough. Most ensemble solutions are indicating dry conditions through Friday. By Saturday, 30 percent of ensemble solutions are trending wetter. Current forecast has less than 15 percent chance of precipitation for the end of the week and a gradual cooling to near normal temperatures.

AVIATION
071645Z
Coasts
Light offshore flow has helped clear out clouds and decrease low level moisture/haze this morning, with clear skies and VFR conditions prevailing throughout the day.

Low clouds are expected to redevelop around 03-06z this evening, and push 5-10 miles inland. Cloud bases will be 200-400 ft MSL and vis to be 0-2 SM, with areas of dense FG with vis to 1/8-1/2 SM at times, especially for the higher coastal mesas. Highest confidence for CIGs /FG at KSAN (60-70%), followed by 50-60% for KSNA, and lower confidence for impacts at KCRQ (30-40%). Clouds/fog should begin to lift/clear around 16-17z, with full clearing to the beaches by 18z.
Low clouds/fog could linger at the beaches into the afternoon hours.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies and VFR prevail through Sunday morning.

MARINE
More widespread fog with visibilities around 1SM or less is expected to develop around 03-06z this evening, continuing into Sunday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather conditions expected through Wednesday.

BEACHES
Dense fog is expected to roll in sometime this evening, likely bringing visibility below 1 mile, with 0 to 1/4 mile visibility at times. Clouds/fog should lift/thin some by late Sunday morning, but some spots could see foggy conditions linger into the afternoon.



SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through late Tuesday night for Riverside County Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The Inland Empire-San Diego County Inland Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains- Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest.

PZ...None.