Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newport Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday November 17, 2019 10:15 PM PST (06:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 12:11PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 816 Pm Pst Sun Nov 17 2019
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds, building to 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 816 Pm Pst Sun Nov 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1024 mb high was located 700 nm W of point conception, extending north and then inland to the northern great basin. There was an weak trough across the coast of california. Light offshore winds will affect the nearshore waters late tonight into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newport Beach, CA
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location: 33.59, -117.91     debug


Area Discussion for - San Diego, CA
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Fxus66 ksgx 180408
afdsgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service san diego ca
808 pm pst Sun nov 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring another dry
and warm day on Monday, but major changes are in the works. A
disturbance is topping the east pacific ridge and will dive south
over california on Tuesday with a dollop of cold, unstable air in
tow. To complicate matters, another storm system to the west of baja
may be drawn far enough northward to contribute moisture to the
southbound canadian system. Tuesday will be a transition day, it
will be much cooler with clouds increasing, and a chance of showers
breaking out. The first widespread, beneficial rainfall of the
season ensues for Tuesday night and Wednesday, tapering to showers
on Thursday. It will be much colder with some snowfall possible over
the higher mountains. Dry and warmer weather returns on Friday
through next weekend.

Discussion For extreme southwestern california including orange...

san diego... Western riverside and southwestern san bernardino
counties...

skies were clear across socal this evening. It was a warm day with
no less than 10 record high temperatures tied or set. These
records have been headlined on our web page. It remained quite warm
(given the time of year) in some areas this evening where
temperatures were some 10-14f above values observed yesterday at 7
pm pst. There was no inversion on the 00z miramar sounding, and east
winds were howling aloft, ranging from around 20 kts at 5k ft, to 75
kts at 30k ft. The offshore sfc pressure gradient was holding around
10 mbs from SW nv to ksan but peak wind gusts were only in the 25-30
mph range in the windiest spots. Skies will be clear overnight and
the dry air and light wind should help temperatures fall rapidly
later.

It will be another roaster tomorrow with temps well into the 80s and
a few more 90s too. Winds will be mostly light and swing back
onshore in the afternoon, although with little cooling effect
inland. No changes were made to the current forecast, although
considerable uncertainty remains with regard to the storm systems
unfolding for midweek. The water vapor loop shows our northern
stream system wrapping up 1000 miles due west of seattle, and the
southern cut-off low retrograding about 460 miles SW of san diego. A
weakening ridge separates the two and will keep us quite warm and
dry on Monday. MAX temps may be close to values observed today
before gusty onshore flow makes it all a distant memory on Tue wed.

The latest model guidance continues to suggest a side-swipe for us
with moisture from the south as the cut-off low is drawn NE in
response to the incoming northern system. The interplay between
these two systems will be key for gauging precip accumulations.

The cut-off is tapping high pw values from the sea of cortes, while
the northern trough provides the spark and instability for
convective showers and even thunderstorms. All interests should
monitor later forecasts for QPF updates. The greatest potential for
heavy rainfall at this time looks like the tijuana river valley.

From previous discussion...

Highlights
* few showers develop Tuesday, becoming widespread Tuesday night
* brunt of precipitation occurs Tuesday night-Thursday morning
* widespread, beneficial rainfall; low risk of flash flooding
* snow level lowers to 6000 ft with several inches possible above
big changes occur on Tuesday. A cut off low that has been
positioned off baja california will finally begin to eject
northeast. Remnant moisture from post-tropical storm raymond
will be pulled north over baja on the east and north side of the
upper low. Some of this moisture will pull into our southern
areas, mainly san diego county on Tuesday afternoon-evening. Right
now the forecast favors light showers, but some guidance suggest
convection is possible near the international border. Something to
keep a close eye on. That low moves east ahead of a winter storm
arriving from the north Tuesday night.

The winter storm will move in from the north with rain chances
increasing Tuesday night. Confidence is high that this will be the
first widespread, beneficial rainfall of the season. Gfs
continues to show the mid level low slightly further east than the
ecmwf, though a notable change today is that the ECMWF has
trended towards the gfs. The model ensembles have closed the gap
somewhat with the higher end totals knocked down quite a bit.

That's good news in terms of the flash flood risk. We currently
favor this being a widespread, beneficial rainfall with a low risk
of flash flooding. However, a few cells could produce locally
heavier rainfall, especially if thunderstorms can develop.

Tstorms were not included in the forecast given a slightly less
over-the-water trajectory trend in the models, but this will be
something for later shifts to assess.

The official forecast today exclusively follows wpc QPF guidance
(in collaboration with surrounding offices).

Forecast precipitation totals (moderate confidence):
san diego county coast and valleys: 1.00-1.50 inches
coastal mountain slopes: 1.00-1.75 inches
orange county and the inland empire: 0.50-1.00 inches
high desert: 0.25-0.50 inches
lower desert: 0.10-0.25 inches
these totals are higher than the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean
at most locales, especially the drier gfs.

Snow levels start off high near 10,000 ft Tuesday evening, but
lower to around 6000 ft by Wednesday evening.

Forecast snowfall totals (moderate confidence):
6000-6500 ft: 1-2 inches
6500-7000 ft: 2-5 inches
above 7000 ft: 6-10 inches
a winter storm watch may be needed in time.

A change from yesterday is that the storm is faster, so the bulk
of the precip will occur on Wednesday into early Thursday morning
with only lingering showers on Thursday before clearing out. High
pressure aloft will build in for the weekend with a return to
tranquil conditions and slowly warming temperatures.

Aviation
180400z... Mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis through Monday
evening except for increasing mid-level clouds at above 10000 ft msl
Monday afternoon and evening.

Marine
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday. Stronger
west winds with gusts around 20 knots could occur Tuesday night
through Wednesday, with showers at times Tuesday night through
Thursday.

Fire weather
Widespread rh of 15-20% continues inland this evening, but winds
have decreased most areas and no critical fire weather conditions
were being reported as of 6 pm this evening. Peak wind gusts of 25-
30 mph in the most wind-prone spots will weaken further overnight,
allowing some modest rh recovery.

Mostly light easterly winds are on tap for Monday, but minimum rh
will still be near 10% inland along with well above average
temperatures. A weak sea breeze will develop by afternoon.

Humidity will surge on Tuesday on gusty south winds. Showers may
break out, with wetting rain expected for Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Much colder by midweek.

Skywarn
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Sgx watches warnings advisories
Ca... None
pz... None.

Public... 10 gregoria
fire weather... 10
aviation marine... Maxwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46253 14 mi46 min 66°F3 ft
46256 17 mi46 min 65°F3 ft
PRJC1 18 mi46 min NNE 7 G 7
PFXC1 19 mi46 min NE 5.1 G 6
AGXC1 20 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1
PFDC1 20 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1
BAXC1 21 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 6
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 21 mi52 min 65°F1013.9 hPa
PSXC1 21 mi46 min NNE 7 G 7
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 22 mi23 min 65°F3 ft
PXAC1 22 mi58 min Calm G 0
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 37 mi46 min 65°F2 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 43 mi20 min 66°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 43 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 68°F 64°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Los Angeles Pier J, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Wayne-Orange County Airport, CA7 mi23 minNE 39.00 miA Few Clouds69°F39°F35%1013.1 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA16 mi78 minENE 310.00 miFair64°F36°F37%1013.5 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA20 mi23 minE 310.00 miFair66°F34°F30%1013.2 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA21 mi23 minNNW 310.00 miFair64°F36°F35%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNA

Wind History from SNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW8S9SW5SW7S9SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW45SW4SW5S4SW6S6S5SW3S3S3S3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN4E5W35SW4SW5SW9SW3CalmSW3SW3S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Balboa Pier, Newport Beach, California
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Balboa Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:47 AM PST     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:27 AM PST     3.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:21 PM PST     4.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM PST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.23.53.53.43.33.23.23.43.74.14.54.74.74.33.72.921.20.60.20.20.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Los Patos (highway bridge), California
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Los Patos (highway bridge)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM PST     3.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:00 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:30 PM PST     4.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM PST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:38 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.22.7332.82.42.122.22.63.23.7443.83.32.61.91.10.50.20.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Diego, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.