Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stuckey, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid and upper level ridge over the Southeast with surface high pressure just offshore will maintain quiet weather for the end of the week. Slightly above normal high temps today in the low 80s, with upper 70s near the coast courtesy of the sea breeze, with plenty of sunshine through a few diurnal cu clouds. South winds today will be a little breezy, with gusts of 20-25 mph possible. WAA increases tonight along with lingering winds, leading to above normal lows in the upper 50s by Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Surface and mid-level ridging will maintain temperatures above normal while keeping the region dry this weekend. Mostly sunny skies on Sat with just a few patches of thin high cloud. Moisture above 300mb starts to increase Sat night into Sun, as the center of ridging aloft shifts offshore. High clouds will increase Sun, although how thick the cirrus ends up remains in question. Forecast soundings point to it being thicker, which could lead to slightly cooler highs Sun. Sea breeze will keep the coast cooler both days, but the slightly stronger southwest synoptic flow may lead to less of a sea breeze influence along portions of the SC coast Sun.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface and mid-level ridging just off the Southeast coast Mon will keep the region warm and dry. The surface high weakens into Tue as the 5h ridge axis is suppressed to the south. This will open the door for the arrival of a weak cold front, associated with a stacked low in southeastern Canada, on Tue. Limited forcing as the front moves into the area leaves surface based instability as the main driver for convection. Surface based CAPE on Tue will approach 1k J/kg and precipitable water will be over the 90th percentile. More importantly the mid-level dry air related to subsidence from the 5h ridge is all but gone. Due to the lack of forcing coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the typical 30-40% with afternoon and evening timing favored. The front ends up parallel to the flow aloft which leads to the decaying boundary stalled across the region. The overall environment Wed/Thu will not be much different from Tue with temperatures above normal and SBCAPE in the 500-1k J/kg range. Expect similar coverage of diurnal convection each day.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence VFR through 6z TAF period. Really shallow moist layer is present across coastal areas, including KILM, KCRE, and KMYR, but with abundant dry air right above it, it will be tough for anything more than ground fog to develop before this morning. Therefore have removed low vsbys from ILM TAFs. Mostly clear skies with a few diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Calm winds through morning become southerly after daybreak, with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR daytime Friday through the weekend. Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions early next week.

MARINE
Through Tonight...
Benign marine conditions continue with high pressure just offshore. Southerly winds increase a little late this morning, with winds 10-15 kt this afternoon through tonight. As a result, 1-2 ft seas this morning increase to 2-3 ft tonight with the slowly building S wind wave.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Bermuda High will maintain south to southwest flow across the waters through the middle of next week. Static gradient will keep speeds 10- 15 kt outside of any afternoon sea breeze influence. Minimal variation in the wind field, both speed and direction, keeps seas 2- 3 ft with a south to southeast wind wave gradually increasing in period to the point where it may be more of a swell by Mon or Tue.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.