Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stuckey, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:05PM Thursday February 20, 2020 10:07 AM EST (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:13AMMoonset 3:26PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 353 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm est this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
AMZ200 353 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will develop offshore from the carolina coasts today and will rapidly intensify as it accelerates ne away from the carolinas tonight. Gale warning is in effect for this afternoon through Friday with storm conditions offshore. Cold canadian high pressure will follow late Friday through the upcoming weekend with winds and seas subsiding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stuckey, SC
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location: 33.6, -79.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 201459 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure developing offshore today will intensify as it accelerates away from the area tonight through Friday. Cold rain will transition to snow tonight with some accumulation possible, mainly across Southeast NC, before coming to end Friday morning. Cold and dry high pressure will dominate this weekend. Warmer weather will arrive on early next week ahead of next frontal system. Cold and dry high pressure will build in behind cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

UPDATE. Forecast on track for a cold rain today transitioning to snow into tonight. Winter weather advisory remains in effect for NC, excluding just along the coast of Brunswick and New Hanover counties. Temps will be slowly dropping through the day, remaining in the 40s. As northerly winds pick up this afternoon into tonight, temps will feel much cooler, with wind chill values down below 30 many places by this evening. As northerly winds increase this afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory will transition to a Gale Warning for our local waters.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold front is currently analyzed south of Jacksonville, FL but will be making a resurgence over northern FL as a warm front within the next 12 hours. This will provide the fuel for a low pressure system to develop off the coast of GA this afternoon. The low will quickly intensify through the late afternoon and early evening which will push a large swath of precipitation over the thin wedge of cold air near the surface. Precip will begin as rain as the warm nose in the mid-levels pushes inland from the warm Atlantic Ocean waters.

The GFS and ECMWF show an intensifying low that tracks closer to the coast ahead of a positively tilted long wave trough over the central US and moves ENE away from the US coastline. Over previous model runs, the low has tracked slightly toward the north and this has led to an increase in cold air over the area. This is likely to degrade the warm nose from north to south quicker than previous model runs suggested. We will see a transition period from rain to a wintry mix of rain/sleet then to snow Thursday night into Friday morning. This minuet addition of cold air has increased the potential for snow totals across the northern counties. A Winter Weather Advisory has been raised to cover the snow totals of 1-2" in Robeson, Bladen, and Pender county and up to an inch in Columbus, Brunswick, and New Hanover county. The advisory also advises of hazardous travel due to snowfall during the Friday morning commute in all of our NC counties. Its worth noting that soundings (and now a couple of hi- res models) keep lingering moisture behind the low pressure system over our area with a saturated dendritic growth zone. This could lead to a period of snowfall along the coast through as late as mid- morning. Frigid during the day on Friday with some of the coldest air of the season. Highs will struggle to make it to 40 under clearing skies as the low exits.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Cold and dry Canadian high pressure to dominate this period with temps running 5 to 10+ degrees below normal, especially the lows for both Sat and Sun mornings. There will be a slight breeze Sat morning keeping min temps from totally bottoming out. Widespread 50s expected for Sat highs as the center of the cold high parks itself overhead. Decent radiational cooling expected Sat night which will result in temps dropping nicely after dusk. Have gone with Sun morning mins below guidance given sfc dewpoints will have only recovered into the 20s from the teens that occur Fri night into Sat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mid-level s/w ridge will affect the FA Sun into Mon with continued dry conditions at the sfc and overall temps moderating to near normal both Sun and continuing thru Mon. Return SE-S flow around the departing sfc high offshore during Mon and the passage of a warm front Mon night will result in the atm moistening up with the threat for showers Mon thru Mon night. The mid-level ridge breaks down late Mon and models generally want to carve an upper trof across the Central part of the U.S. Models indicate that weak mid-level s/w trofs or vorts will rotate thru during the early to mid-week period of next week, further amplifying this upper trof with it's North to South trof axis remaining west of the FA. As a result, expect milder temps this period with temps running close to 10 degrees above normal. Will have the threat for showers especially when 1 of these vorts rotate thru late Mon into Tue. Models not as robust for pcpn Wed but given the time-line will continue to mention low chance POPs.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. MVFR ceilings are starting to infiltrate the area this morning, moving from south to north. MVFR will be short-lived before widespread IFR conditions develop by this afternoon. A cold rain will continue throughout the day, before transitioning to snow late tonight. Snow continues through the overnight hours and tapers off Friday morning. Ceilings lift back into MVFR before sunrise Friday morning.

Extended Outlook . Low pressure off the coast that is causing the rain and snow will lift away from our area. Conditions improve to VFR midday Friday, and will persist thru the weekend as cold, dry Canadian high pressure prevails.

MARINE. Hazardous conditions to continue today through Saturday as low pressure develops off the coast of GA and moves ENE and out to sea by midday Friday. Small Craft Advisory in effect now through 3pm Thursday. A Gale Warning is in effect from 3pm Thursday through 6pm Friday for all coastal waters. NE winds increase to around 20-25 knots today with gusts approaching 30 knots. As the low intensifies, winds will further increase to 25-35 knots and gusts to 40 knots on Thursday night and Friday. Seas peak at 7-10 feet on Friday before beginning to improve as the low moves out to sea late Friday. Conditions will continue to improve overnight Friday into Saturday as high pressure moves overhead, but conditions will remain hazardous.

For Fri Night thru Mon: SCA conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of this period. However, this time period will be highlighted with an overall diminishing and subsiding trend in both winds and seas respectively. Winds and seas will finally drop below SCA thresholds during early Sat. The center of high pressure will park itself across the Eastern Carolinas Sat into Sun and will move off the coast and offshore Mon. Light winds 10 kt or less Sun will become SE-S around 10 kt Mon due to the return flow around the departing high offshore. In addition, there will be a threat for showers.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ087-096-099-105>107-109. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . DCH LONG TERM . DCH AVIATION . IGB MARINE . DCH/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 22 mi83 min NE 11 48°F 1025 hPa43°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 28 mi50 min 46°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC21 mi73 minNE 610.00 miLight Drizzle45°F37°F76%1026.1 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC23 mi93 minNE 610.00 miLight Rain45°F33°F66%1026.4 hPa
Kingstree Williamsburg Regional Airport, SC24 mi73 minN 310.00 miLight Rain45°F32°F61%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGE

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4
2 days agoNE3E6NE7NE6NE7E9E8E5NE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E3NE4NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:27 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.310.60.2000.30.71.21.61.921.91.61.20.80.40.20.30.611.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:18 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:40 PM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.30.90.50.2-00.10.40.81.31.8221.81.51.10.70.40.20.40.71.11.41.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.