Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pell City, AL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025

This AM, satellite is indicating some scattered cirrus and isolated stratus clouds across C AL. At the surface, there is weak onshore flow around the base of a surface ridge to the E over the WRN Atlantic. Low pressure is situated over Quebec with a front extending out of it to the SW into W TN. The surface front will not have the upper support required to push far enough SWD to reach AL just yet. C AL will see SRLY low level flow today as onshore flow increases around the retreating ridge. In the upper levels, there is a weakening ridge extending from the Carolinas SWWD into Mexico and a shortwave trough digging across NM with SW flow into C AL around the base of the NM trough. This shortwave is expected to swing EWD into the TX Panhandle today and then push to the NE toward IL by late Thursday.

For today, we will continue with a warm onshore flow into AL and only some isolated diurnal convection possible for this afternoon with heating along with above normal temperatures. By Thursday, the upper shortwave will be close enough to have more of an effect on our weather. Outflow activity from storms to our NW on Thursday (closer to the shortwave) should be able to reach us by afternoon.
While we could see some isolated convection during the morning, the storms of greater concern and coverage will be focused later in the day and into the evening. Storms will be arriving in the NW counties in the late afternoon to be greeted by a hot and unstable atmosphere. There should be enough instability for some strong to severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging straight line winds with a lower but non zero hail threat. The severe threat will continue into the evening hours into more of the area.

08

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025

Showers and storms that arrive Thursday afternoon to areas northwest of the 59/20 corridor are forecast to move southeastward during the evening. South of the 20 corridor, waning instability after sundown and weak flow should allow for this activity to commence a weakening trend though a couple storms could still reach severe limits before totally succumbing.

Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday ahead of a surface front and trough swinging across the central U.S. A few storms could be strong from afternoon to early evening given moderate instability and light shear. If wind shear values trend upward a tad, then a level 1 severe risk may be warranted.

The deterministic GFS and ECMWF remain at odds regarding the progression of the 500 mb trough from Friday night into Saturday.
This results in a faster frontal passage and end to showers/storms for the GFS whereas the ECMWF is slower with another round of activity for the first-half of the weekend. GFS ensembles are wetter as are ECMWF ensembles, supported by other model data.
Thus, the official forecast has heightened shower/storm chances on Saturday for most of central Alabama.

Quieter weather conditions will return on Sunday and last for several days as we enter a post-frontal air mass. Dew points will be 10-15 degrees lower than this week, making for a little less humid conditions with warm afternoons and mild nights.

89^GSatterwhite

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025

There is some patchy ground fog in a few spots this morning. The worst is a MGM with LIFR conditions, but this should not last long. Some MVFR patchy fog may be around in a few other spots for an hour or so. Winds will be generally light for early this morning. Then if they have a direction, winds will be SW-SRLY ~ 4-8kts during the day with mixing thanks to onshore flow around the surface ridge over the W Atlantic. Isolated diurnal afternoon convection is possible today, but it is too low to pinpoint to mention in the TAFs ATTM.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Afternoon minimum RHs will hold above critical thresholds over the next several days. There is a low chance of showers and storms for parts of central Alabama today. A batch of showers and storms is forecast to arrive to west Alabama Thursday afternoon and then spread southeastward through the evening while it begins to weaken. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity will occur on Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds will be from the south near 5 mph today, increasing to between 5-10 mph on Thursday, then southwest near 5 mph on Friday. Fair weather and a post-frontal air mass is expected starting on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 85 63 84 61 / 20 10 40 60 Anniston 84 63 84 63 / 20 20 30 60 Birmingham 86 67 84 64 / 20 10 50 60 Tuscaloosa 87 66 84 64 / 10 10 60 60 Calera 84 65 84 65 / 20 10 50 60 Auburn 84 65 84 64 / 20 10 10 30 Montgomery 87 65 87 64 / 20 10 20 30 Troy 85 62 86 63 / 30 10 10 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.