Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pell City, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 5:41PM Friday February 28, 2020 12:40 PM CST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pell City, AL
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location: 33.61, -86.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 281813 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1213 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

UPDATE. For 18Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 355 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/ Through Saturday.

The first in a series of quick hitting waves is moving across north Alabama early this morning, with an increase in mid and high level clouds. Area radars show weak returns across north Mississippi and west Tennessee, but have to look back to the Arkansas/Tennessee state line for obs reporting precipitation. Overall column remains dry outside of the moisture associated with the cloud deck around 700mb. Will not rule out a slight chance of light rain across the north around sunrise through early morning. Given the low level temp profile and evaporative cooling potential, a few snowflakes are also possible. The next, stronger, wave moves through mid day, and will maintain the chance of isolated light rain showers across the far north through the day. This wave will push a weak cold front southward through much of the area by sunset. Only noticable change with the front will be increased winds from the west this afternoon. Highs today will be in the 50-60 degree range.

Tonight, the final wave moves through the area as the western side of a longwave trough finally begins to push east of the area. Like the others, this wave is moisture-starved, and will limit rain chances to the far north tonight. There could be a brief window early Saturday morning where a few snowflakes could mix with light rain across the extreme northeast. Lows will be in the mid 30s.

Saturday, clear skies and dry conditions return as surface ridging builds into the region. Highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM. /Updated at 355 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/ Saturday evening through Sunday.

High pressure will be in control across much of the Southeast for the weekend. Thus, conditions across Central Alabama appear to be pretty quiet with a warming trend by Sunday afternoon due to a transition to southerly low-level flow. However, isentropic ascent will foster increasing cloud cover from the west during this time with a transition to more westerly flow aloft. A persistent fetch of southwesterly 850 mb flow will eventually lead to enough moisture advection to support light rain showers Sunday night as an axis of at least weakly confluent flow establishes from the ArkLaTex into the TN Valley. Thus, PoPs begin to increase Sunday night from the northwest, with light rain showers becoming more widespread thereafter.

Monday and Tuesday.

After an initial round of showers Sunday night and into Monday morning, a low amplitude ridge will continue to develop across the Gulf Coast region, with continuance of warm/moist advection across the Deep South. With a frontal boundary now in place from near the ArkLaTex into the Ohio Valley, moisture will continue to surge northward Mon afternoon and into Tuesday where rain chances really get going just to our north and west near axis of better forcing. A broad strengthening low-level jet and ample low-level warm advection is progged Tuesday afternoon and evening downstream of a southern stream disturbance ejecting into the Southern Plains. Thus, kept rain chances somewhat elevated across Central Alabama with best chances along/north of I-20 through Tuesday night. Kept mentioning of thunderstorms Mon and Tue as enough instability may be present across the establishing warm sector to get a few embedded thunderstorms going as well.

Wednesday and Thursday.

Guidance is struggling with the evolution of the disturbance progged to eject across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Unlike previous solutions, many members are now suggesting a bifurcation of the phased northern and southern stream trough axes. This would invite a scenario where the southern stream feature cuts off from the Polar jet & generally weakens, slows down, then subsequently flattens & lifts out. This would lead to a less amplified system & weaker cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary - now farther south with a more southerly propagation thereafter. If the low remains more along the I-10 corridor or Gulf Coast as now suggested, the favorable warm sector supportive of severe weather would remain mostly out of our area. A switch to a more heavy rainfall event may evolve instead. Due to these recent inconsistencies, confidence in the HWO will not be increased as once expected. If these trends continue, heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding would become the more likely impact across the area. Nonetheless, will keep the low-confidence severe threat as- is until run-to-run trends can be established. In the end, a severe threat could still evolve across the region in some manner and area, while also accompanying heavy rain/flooding. Thus, will closely watch trends in subsequent updates and adjust HWO items as necessary.

40/Sizemore

AVIATION. 18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. There will be a couple of waves moving across North Alabama this afternoon through late tonight into early Saturday morning. However, mainly mid/upper clouds are expected for some of the northern TAFs sites associated with it. Westerly winds are noted across Central Alabama at this time ahead of the weak trough approaching. We may see a few gusts. Winds will turn more northwest later today post trough, but should go lighter tonight as the trough is weak. A low level jet late tonight could create some LLWS issues at a few TAFs. Another boundary should push south on Saturday with more northwest winds expected. Only small precipitation chances are possible on this afternoon and tonight, and those chances are all north of the TAFs.

08

FIRE WEATHER.

A couple upper-level disturbances are forecast to move across the area which may result in a few isolated instances of light rain across the north today and tonight. Winds should remain out of the west to northwest at 10-15 kts, with higher gusts. Otherwise, most areas remain dry today with this trend to continue into Saturday. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values remain above ~30% today and tomorrow, with increasing moisture and southerly flow expected on Sunday. Our next widespread chance for rainfall returns early next week, with strong storms and heavy rain possible on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 49 33 52 31 62 / 20 20 0 0 0 Anniston 52 34 53 33 63 / 20 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 52 36 55 37 64 / 10 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 56 36 59 39 67 / 0 10 0 0 0 Calera 54 36 56 36 64 / 10 10 0 0 0 Auburn 55 36 56 34 62 / 0 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 37 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 60 38 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anniston Metro Airport, AL23 mi4.8 hrsWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F27°F65%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KANB

Wind History from ANB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10W9
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W10--W6SW10W7W10SW7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W7
1 day agoSW3W8SW6W8W9W13W14
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2 days ago------SW6W4W5W7W6W3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.