Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 4:15 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 191051 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 551 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

There's a wide variety of fog and low clouds across Central Alabama this morning, mainly in the wake of exiting rain last evening. Fog has been spatially disorganized, and only a few obs have indicated visibility 1/2 mile or less at times. It's for this reason a dense fog advisory has not been issued overnight. Either way, both fog and low clouds should improve after sunrise today thanks to heating & mixing.

Overall, we're on the back side of an exiting shortwave trough this morning. A weak low-level ridge is now moving toward the Mississippi Valley, and we'll start a period of drier, warmer weather today. The exception will be some isolated showers (or a storm) east of I-65 this afternoon. There's enough lingering tropospheric moisture & instability across this area (despite subsidence) for some diurnal convection. Highs this afternoon will be in the 80s, though some upper 70s in the higher terrain is possible in the east. Tonight will be calm and clear, perhaps with some patchy fog, with lows in the 60s.

Upper-level flow will be split, but more amplified on Monday, as a deep-layer ridge strengthens across the eastern CONUS. I've favored warmer guidance and have highs in the mid to upper 80s advertised with no mentionable PoPs.

40/Sizemore

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

A drier and warm pattern continues through much of next week as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf through the Ohio River Valley and into New England. A weak front will drip into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, as a low rotates near Hudson Bay. The front stalls before reaching Central Alabama, but showers and storms could make it as far south as the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon.
Friday, convection expands southward in response to a southern stream shortwave riding along the surface front, and moving eastward through the region. Given uncertainty in timing and weak shear fields, will hold off on any mention of strong to severe storms at this time.

14

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

We're mainly dealing with IFR cigs this morning, and most vis issues have improved (with exception of TCL). IFR conditions are forecast to improve by ~15z, with perhaps an hour or so of MVFR cigs, before VFR conditions return for the rest of the day. Winds will be northerly to northwesterly at 5-8 kts this afternoon, with isolated convection east of I-65. Probs were too low for TAF inclusion at ASN and ANB. Clear, calm conditions are forecast tonight, but will watch trends for patchy fog.

40/Sizemore

FIRE WEATHER

Fog and low clouds remain scattered across Central Alabama this morning. These should improve shortly after sunrise. Conditions today will be warmer and drier overall, with northerly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph. Isolated showers or storms are possible this afternoon east of I-65. We'll remain warm and dry tomorrow with an easterly to southeasterly 20 ft wind at around 5 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 84 61 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 83 62 88 62 / 20 10 0 0 Birmingham 85 65 88 64 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 84 65 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 81 64 85 64 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 84 65 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 Troy 83 64 86 62 / 10 0 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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