Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bucksport, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Potential record-tying or breaking high temperatures today along with continued drought and fire weather concerns.

2) A strong cold front, accompanied by scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms, is expected to move from west to east across the area during Sunday morning, before shifting off the coast by early afternoon and to well offshore by late afternoon. A period of slightly below normal temperatures is expected to follow Sunday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential record-tying or breaking high temperatures today along with continued drought and fire weather concerns.

Mid-level ridging nearly overhead Saturday, allowing for temperatures to get just a little bit warmer than Friday.
Record-tying or breaking high temperatures expected away from the immediate coast as an active sea breeze should develop by noon and progress inland during the afternoon, reaching a Florence to Lumberton line prior to sunset. Here's a look at the current records across the area for Sat April 18:

Wilmington,NC (KILM)......93 in 1976 N Myrtle Beach,SC (KCRE)..89 in 1967 Florence,SC (KFLO)........93 in 1981 Lumberton,NC (KLBT).......91 in 1941

A little more moisture builds into the column Saturday, allowing for a few/sct cumulus clouds to pop up at 5000-8000 ft. Other than that, extremely dry weather continues. Diurnal mixing midday thru mid-afternoon will bring dewpoints down at the surface inland, resulting in RH values down to 25-30%.
However, an active inland progressing sea breeze will push hier sfc dewpoints inland and should counter this mixing later in the aftn and into the evening. The severe to extreme drought across southeast NC and northeast SC combined with the continued dry conditions has resulted in the bi-state burn ban remaining in effect until further notice. Its getting to the point where even an improperly disregarded cigarette butt could ignite a fire.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front, accompanied by scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms, is expected to move from west to east across the area during Sunday morning, before shifting off the coast by early afternoon and to well offshore by late afternoon. A period of slightly below normal temperatures is expected to follow Sunday night through Tuesday night.

H5 trough moving across the Eastern U.S. on Sunday will drive a sfc cold front across the forecast area, and off the mainland to well offshore during Sunday afternoon. POPS for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the 20 to 40 percent range. Only isolated thunderstorms possible given the weak tstorm parameters progged. Limited moisture will also result in QPF less than 0.10 inches, which this may even be too high. This will not even satisfy the thirst of the vegetation of the ongoing growing season. In essence, the severe/extreme drought across portions of Southeast NC and Northeast SC will continue to worsen.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, CAA under gusty NW-NNE winds will overspread the area Sun afternoon and night becoming neutral advection Mon. The end result will see below normal temperatures overspreading the area Sunday night and continuing thru Tuesday night. This time of year, normal highs are in the mid to upper 70s and normal lows in the lower 50s. The sheltered/cold spots could drop down into the upper 30s for lows early Tuesday morning given winds possibly decoupling up to several hrs prior to sunrise. Temperatures will rebound back above normal Wednesday thru the end of the upcoming work-week.
And with continued dry conditions with no pcpn in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR thru the 24 hr fcst period. FEW Altocu early this morning, otherwise SCT/BKN deck of thin/opaque cirrus will dominate this period. Thrown in during the midday hrs thru early this evening will be a FEW/SCT high Cu or low Altocu. Calm to SW winds AOB 5 kt to dominate this morning. By late morning and thru the aftn, the coastal terminals will see the development and inland progression of the sea breeze with gusty southerly winds dominating. SSW 25 to 30 kt LLJ later tonight will keep the boundary layer mixed in turn negating any fog development.

Extended Forecast...VFR into Sun morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may accompany a cold frontal passage from late morning thru late afternoon Sun with brief MVFR possible.
Northerly winds behind the front could gust to 25 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through Wednesday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...SSW-SW winds at 10-15 kts expected through Sat evening, except pushing 15g20kt across the nearshore waters, ie within 10 nm of the coast, Sat aftn and evening due to an active sea breeze. Later Sat night, an active SSW-SW 25 to 30 kt LLJ (925mb) to develop, which will further increase winds overnight especially across the warmer ATL waters offshore. Seas generally in the 2 to 3 ft range this morning, building to 2 to 4 ft thru the day. And 3 to 5 ft tonight, with the hier end of this range occurring across the 20-60 nm out offshore waters. Short period wind driven waves to dominate the seas spectrum but with a continued ongoing and underlying 8+ second period SE swell.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night...Looking at SW winds increasing Sat night into Sun from both a LLJet with 25-30 kt SW winds just off the deck up to 925mb and a tightening sfc pg ahead of the approaching cold front from the west.
Expanding/pivoting upper trof extending from Hudson Bay will help drive the cold front to the Carolina Coasts by midday Sun and to well offshore by late afternoon/early evening. Will see scattered convection accompanying it, further blossoming as the activity reaches the warmer Atl waters. Looking at a decent windshift, from SW-NW then to the NNE-NE at SCA thresholds Sun night as sfc ridging builds in from the west behind the departing cold front. The gradient relaxes during Mon with winds diminishing below SCA thresholds. The upper trof's axis will swing across the area late Mon, allowing for a secondary CFP Monday evening accompanied with less fanfare than its predecessor. Sfc high to follow and ridge in from the north Mon night thru Tue.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.