Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bucksport, SC

UPDATE
Going forecast this morning in good shape for the day. No changes were needed.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cold this morning due to high pressure overhead. Most of the area will start the day in the lower 20s with a few of our typical cold spots currently well into the teens. High pressure will maintain below normal temperatures today. As the center of the high drifts southward toward the Gulf coast, winds will turn southwesterly and the associated weak warm air advection should push highs close to 50 before sunset.

Southerly flow tonight will gradually increase as a low deepens over southern Ontario and Great Lakes region. The combination of light surface winds and advection will keep overnight lows around 30.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Airmass really begins to moderate, with high pressure pushing offshore. Southwesterly flow starts becoming a bit more apparent in the low levels, which aids in the WAA from the Gulf. Clouds very gradually build in Sunday, but the rain chances don't kick in just yet. Highs in the low-to-mid 60s expected, generally near or just above normal for early-mid December.

Trends will continue to lean warmer through Monday night. A shortwave will eject plenty of upper energy and forcing to the area, carrying deeper southwesterly flow with it. Gulf moisture spills into the Carolinas, allowing for precipitable water values to escalate to near an inch by Monday afternoon. As a result, rain chances increase late Sunday night through Monday and Monday night.
Highs Monday around the same as the day before, perhaps a degree warmer in some spots. Lows Monday night in the low-to-mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Even more moisture dumps into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. Middle 50% of probabilistic guidance suggests precipitable water values continue to crank up to near 1.5", with the 90th percentile up to 1.75". In any case, this is certainly more moisture than what we're used to seeing in December. However, latest data suggests rainfall totals generally in the 0.75-1.00" neighborhood, which is not necessarily inspiring confidence in relieving the ongoing drought (virtually the entire area is in the D1 "Moderate Drought" category).

Tuesday will feel rather muggy, with highs in the lower 70s, and Tuesday night's lows in the upper 50s to near 60 at the coast. Cold front moves through Wednesday, which may set up a bit of a temperature gradient across the area. Current forecast shows highs in the lower 60s in the SC Pee Dee region, increasing to the upper 60s at the coast.

The cold front quickly dries things out, and we turn cold again.
Wednesday night's lows suddenly dip below freezing again, a trend set to continue into the weekend. Sunny skies Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR. Light and variable winds become SW this afternoon, remaining below 10 knots.

Extended Outlook...An approaching front and low pressure system from the west has a low to moderate chance of bringing MVFR ceilings and visibility in rain to the area Monday into Tuesday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Expect light winds today as the center of high pressure is nearly overhead. The high will gradually drift southward this afternoon and light winds will turn southwesterly. As low pressure deepens over southern Ontario and high pressure remains stationary across the southeastern US, southerly winds will increase in response the tightening gradient overnight. S and SW winds 15-20 knots could gust up to 25 knots late tonight and Sunday morning.
Seas 1-2 feet today, building to 2-3 late tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday...WSW winds initially at 15-18 kts come back down to near 10 kts by Sunday evening. Winds back slightly to the southwest by Monday ahead of a cold front. Seas at 2-3 ft drop back slightly to 1-3 ft. More significant winds and seas start building in Tuesday night through Wednesday, easily hitting Small Craft Advisory criteria. Front moves through late Wednesday, so watch the wind shift from southwesterly to more due westerly by day's end. Seas at 4-5 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm from shore.

CLIMATE
Record lows for Saturday morning (12/7):

Wilmington, NC (KILM): 20F (1954)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 20F (1954)
Florence, SC (KFLO): 17F (2010)
Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 16F (1984)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.