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FXUS64 KFWD 112109 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 309 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ /Through Tuesday/

Quiet weather will continue through Tuesday as we await the arrival of our next storm system later this week. Sunny skies are expected today with south to southeast winds and afternoon temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s. Tonight will be another chilly night, though we'll start to see a few clouds move in from the west beginning this evening. The increase in cloud cover along with a slight increase in low-level moisture will keep overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, with only a few locations east of I-35 expected to fall into the low 30s.

Similar weather is expected on Tuesday, but a deepening upper level trough over the western CONUS will bring a steady stream of Pacific moisture into North and Central Texas. As a result, dense cirrus will increase across the region throughout the day, which will keep temperatures very close to today's values.

Barnes

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

The upper level pattern will amplify during the mid to late week period as an upper low deepens while dropping from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest, and a ridge strengthens over the Mississippi Valley. The resulting southwest flow aloft will generate a pipeline of Pacific moisture and thickening mid and high clouds starting Wednesday, halting our brief daytime warming trend. At the surface, southeast winds will back to the east Tuesday night/Wednesday as the axis of a Mid Atlantic ridge stretches west across the Ohio Valley. This shift will limit low level moisture return, capping surface dewpoints in the 30s and lower 40s for the rest of the week.

The upper low will advance east through the Southern Rockies Wednesday night-Thursday, then pick up speed as it crosses into Northwest Texas Thursday night. A zone of strong isentropic lift will precede the upper low, bringing a broad swath of light to moderate rain to the Big Country Wednesday-Wednesday night, the western third of North and Central Texas Thursday-Thursday night, then to Central and eastern portion of the region Friday-Friday night. The strong surface ridge over the CONUS and surface front over the central Gulf will keep all of Texas in the cool sector and preclude any surface destabilization. The result will be a cool rain for most of the CWA with little in the way of thunder.
A few rogue storms may still occur where any pockets of elevated, low-end CAPE exist, but deep convection and any heavy rain threat will be largely unnoticed over Gulf waters.

For our forecast area, the most likely result regarding rainfall storm totals will be 1-2 inches somewhere over our west or southwest counties, half an inch to an inch over the central zones and less than half an inch across the northeast where the (unusually) lower PWATs will reside. There still remains some uncertainty regarding exact rainfall totals, however, which may depend on how fast the low moves across the region. In any case, rain will exit to the east on Saturday as the upper low heads for Louisiana, while surface winds shift to the north in the wake of the departing system. Cold air advection and wrap-around moisture/clouds will make for a cool Saturday with highs generally in the lower 50s. Warmer and drier weather is then expected as an upper ridge builds in from the west early next week.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR and south to southeast winds near 10 knots or less will continue through the period. Cirrus will begin streaming into the region tonight, with an increase in upper level clouds expected throughout the day Tuesday.

Barnes


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 62 45 59 43 / 0 0 0 5 5 Waco 37 64 46 61 44 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 34 60 39 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 35 62 42 59 39 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 35 62 41 59 40 / 0 0 0 5 5 Dallas 40 62 45 60 44 / 0 0 0 5 5 Terrell 36 62 41 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 39 65 44 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 37 65 45 63 42 / 0 0 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 36 64 45 58 41 / 0 0 0 20 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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