Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with only minor adjustments made to the area/timing of the precipitation Tuesday afternoon.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday Morning/

High pressure will be in control, leading to no significant weather expected through Tuesday morning. This morning's sunrise temperatures in the lower 50s will give way to highs in the upper 70s to mid 80 with mostly clear skies.

The area of high pressure will loosen it's grip Monday night as it gradually shifts eastward. The combination of the high's eastward migration and a surface low developing in the Front Range, a northward surge of moisture is expected by sunrise Tuesday. Clouds will return on Tuesday ahead of our next rain- making system.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 1242 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ /Tuesday Afternoon Onward/

Largely zonal flow aloft will be in place on Tuesday, allowing for a train of shortwaves to line up with their trajectories projected to be atop the Southern Plains. This will set the stage for a period of active weather as thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, return to the region.

Our first shortwave will arrive Tuesday afternoon, igniting thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. This thunderstorm activity will likely initiate along the dryline with a potential for upscale growth into North and Central Texas.
Should the West Texas activity migrate into our region, there will be a risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm complex to impact areas west of I-35 late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

Rain chances will then continue through the day on Wednesday as an unstable, moist and warm atmosphere remains in place. Even though forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest 1800-2200 J/kg of CAPE, shear profiles will remain rather weak. This should preclude any widespread severe weather on Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, shortwaves will continue to pass atop our region, introducing periods of precipitation with each shortwave.
As of the latest model guidance, a stronger disturbance will arrive late Thursday evening into Friday. This could set the stage for yet another round of strong to severe storms.

Precipitation totals from Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week will likely average out to around 1-3 inches. Although higher localized rainfall totals are expected, there is too much uncertainty to accurately forecast location, timing and intensity.
Additional details will become available in the coming days.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Clear skies and light winds continue throughout the region this early Monday morning. Heading into the late morning hours, winds will become southeasterly at around 5-8 knots. Clear skies will continue atop our region.

Weather changes are on the horizon as our next system approaches our region. The first signs will be the arrival of low clouds across our TAF sites. Initially, MVFR can be expected at KACT around 09Z Tuesday, followed by DFW Metroplex TAF sites closer to 13Z. The low clouds will linger through Tuesday morning before cloud heights increase beyond 18Z tomorrow.

Hernandez

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 59 84 66 79 / 0 0 5 60 90 Waco 83 59 87 66 80 / 0 0 10 50 90 Paris 78 53 82 63 78 / 0 0 0 30 80 Denton 79 52 83 61 79 / 0 0 5 60 80 McKinney 78 54 83 64 79 / 0 0 5 50 80 Dallas 82 59 86 66 81 / 0 0 5 50 90 Terrell 79 56 84 65 79 / 0 0 5 40 80 Corsicana 82 61 87 67 81 / 0 0 10 40 90 Temple 85 61 88 66 82 / 0 0 20 50 80 Mineral Wells 81 54 85 62 80 / 0 0 5 60 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.