Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A few high clouds are beginning to make their way into northern Texas well-ahead of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, which is currently positioned just off the coast of Baja California. To the east across the Mid-South, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will continue to progress ENE, departing through the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the day on Monday. Subtropical ridging will build across the southern CONUS in its wake, which will be the primary driver of our region's weather in the short term.

06Z objective RAP analysis depicts a now-closed 1016mb surface high over the northern Gulf, with further strengthening expected as the aforementioned subtropical ridge builds. Aloft and to the west, southwesterly southern-stream flow will accelerate through the southern Rockies in advance of an amplifying western CONUS trough, driving lee troughing and eventual lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. A resultant tightening of the surface pressure gradient between the lee pressure falls and the northern Gulf high will induce breezier southerly surface flow and low- level moisture advection across the region. Guidance is suggesting a seasonal over-performance of this moisture; it appears that the evolving high pressure across the northern Gulf will orient return flow with origins from a deep plume of tropical moisture pulled along the eastern flank of the cyclonic circulation of Isaias. Adequate diurnal mixing keeps surface dewpoint values relatively lower today and Monday, but the arrival of deeper moisture from the Tropical Pacific on Tuesday may inhibit the diurnal drop-off in dewpoints via vertical mixing to some extent on Tuesday. Surface dewpoint values in the mid-70s coupled with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s would drive apparent temperatures towards the triple digits for the day on Tuesday.

Diurnally driven convection may also make a return across central Texas on Monday and the Brazos Valley on Tuesday as diabatic heating of the moist airmass promotes adequate instability. Forecast soundings show subtle warm nosing around 700mb as synoptic subsidence lingers, however convective allowing guidance initiates isolated showers and thunderstorms nonetheless. Any development would be pulse in nature given the weak ambient kinematic fields.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Attention then turns to the progression of the upper trough that will advance east towards the Plains during the middle of the week. While there is good agreement amongst the 00Z global suite in the trough's position through Wednesday afternoon (the closed mid/upper level circulation being centered over eastern Utah), considerable variability is present thereafter. The ultimate progression of the trough will come down to how the upper air pattern evolves across the northern Pacific.

The ECMWF depicts greater amplification of the upstream ridge which effectively pinches the trough off from the primary branch of the polar jet. It subsequently stalls and allows for prolonged air modification behind the cold front, which would result in a muted temperature departure with eventual frontal passage.

The GFS depicts a continued progressive translation of the trough, as the upstream ridge effectively fails to pinch it off from the jet. It gets swept up into a separate system diving south out of Canada, which would push a more "aggressive" cold front through the region.

Regardless, large-scale ascent begins to impinge on the region on Wednesday, with increasing precipitation chances following suite.
The greatest QPF signal exists from the Metroplex north and west on Wednesday, lingering into Friday morning. If a more progressive system is realized, the potential for a few organized storms would exist towards the Red River Thursday night into Friday along the advancing cold front, where ~30kts of 0-6 BWD would reside.
As mentioned, considerable uncertainty remains and details will continue to be worked out as confidence increases.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds of 10-15KT with occasional gusts up to 25KT will prevail through the rest of today. Wind gusts should diminish after sunset, then begin once more after 15Z tomorrow.
Tomorrow morning around 11-12Z, low clouds are expected to stream northward into Central TX, perhaps as far north as the Metroplex.
Given uncertainty in the coverage of these low clouds and the low (20-35%) probabilities of MVFR cigs in text guidance, we have opted not to mention MVFR cigs in the 18Z TAF cycle.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 70 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 91 67 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 Paris 89 66 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 91 69 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 90 67 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 92 70 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 91 66 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 91 67 90 73 / 0 0 10 0 Temple 92 68 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Mineral Wells 91 66 91 71 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.