Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX

UPDATE
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Minor adjustments were made to this morning's probability of precipitation as an outflow boundary continues to progress southeast out of western Oklahoma. Although a few storms currently accompany the outflow boundary, the expectation is for storms to gradually dissipate in the coming hours. A mention of showers and isolated storms was added generally along the immediate Red River west of Gainesville to account for an isolated shower or storm that may impact that area this morning. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level riding will be in control across North and Central Texas today with hot and precipitation-free conditions expected across the region. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to around 104 degrees. A few heat index readings may reach the 105-106 range, however, those will remain fairly isolated in nature. If you plan on spending time outdoors today -- make sure to stay hydrated and seek shade if possible.

The mid-level ridge will begin to break down as we head into tomorrow evening/night as a shortwave traverses from northern NM into the Texas Panhandle. This shortwave will induce a cluster of storms that will develop well to our north and likely send an outflow boundary southward towards our region. There is still some question as to whether the outflow boundary will reach North Texas, however, if it does, it would be sometime between 2 to 7 am. With a strengthening low-level jet in place, localized convergence will promote a few showers and thunderstorms. The latest guidance keeps the bulk of the precipitation north of the Red River prior to sunrise Sunday, however, a few showers and storms cannot be ruled out across the Texoma region.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A more active weather day is expected across the region Sunday as outflow boundaries from Oklahoma surge southward into North Texas. In addition to the outflows, a cold front will be sliding south in response to a passing shortwave. The combination of the outflow boundaries and cold front will lead to scattered thunderstorm activity, especially in the afternoon. Exact location of thunderstorm activity remains uncertain given the dependency on the placement of the outflow boundaries, however, the latest guidance places the surface boundary near the I-20 corridor as daytime heating reaches its maximum. With CIN eroding through the day, sufficient instability will be in place for at least a few strong storms near the I-20 corridor. Forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest low-level dry air will be in place, increasing the potential for strong downburst winds.

The front will likely stall somewhere south of the I-20 corridor late Sunday before it slowly meanders to the north Sunday night into Monday morning. Another shortwave will be moving over North Texas on Monday with height falls taking place across the region.
With the front still atop North & Central Texas, forcing for ascent will increase with another round of showers and storms moving across the region. With most of the precipitation occurring north of the front on Monday, the overall severe weather threat will remain low.

Rain chances will gradually shift south on Tuesday as an amplifying trough to our east drives slightly drier air into our region. Temperatures by the middle of the week will be in the mid to upper 90s, with a few triple digit readings expected near Graham to Breckenridge to Comanche. The dry air will be rather short-lived as lee cyclogenesis induces southerly flow by the middle of the week. This will lead to Gulf moisture once again returning to the region with rain chances returning by next weekend. The increasing moisture will slightly reduce afternoon temperatures, however, given higher moisture content, heat index values will rise into the triple digits.

Beyond next weekend, model consensus leans towards a continuation of above normal temperatures through the rest of the month as mid-level ridging strengthens across the Southern and Central Plains. Rain chances will likely become more limited, however, this will continue to be assessed through the next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds are ongoing across North and Central Texas at this time. For D10 -- expect continued VFR conditions through the rest of today with winds gradually picking up this afternoon. For Waco, periodic MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning with a return to VFR by this afternoon.

Looking ahead, MVFR probabilities increase Sunday morning as outflow boundaries approach the D10 airspace. Additionally, rain chances will return to the forecast late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, leading to increased impacts to North Texas TAF sites. Additional details to come in subsequent TAFs.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 79 90 69 / 0 10 50 80 Waco 93 77 92 72 / 0 0 40 90 Paris 91 76 84 67 / 0 30 70 80 Denton 94 78 87 66 / 10 20 60 80 McKinney 93 78 87 67 / 10 20 60 80 Dallas 97 80 92 70 / 0 10 50 90 Terrell 94 77 91 69 / 0 0 60 90 Corsicana 96 77 95 72 / 0 0 40 90 Temple 93 76 93 72 / 0 0 40 90 Mineral Wells 95 76 89 66 / 0 10 70 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.