Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A much quieter couple of days is in store for North and Central Texas as we head into the latter half of the week. The majority of our earlier storms have fully exited the region to the northeast, with a few lingering light showers in East Texas and a rogue storm still tracking east south of the I-20 corridor. This activity will continue to shift east as its upper-level shortwave swings through the Midwest. All remaining rain should come to an end later this morning as upper-level ridging builds into the region in the wake of the departing shortwave. With the dryline remaining to our west and subsident air increases overhead, expect this afternoon to be fairly warm in the 80s to near 90 in some spots.

A deepening upper low currently located in the PAC-NW will traverse along the US-Canada border going into Friday, with shortwaves digging further south into the Plains as the system as a whole moves east. This will offset the ridge and send a strong cold front southward through the Plains on Friday. This front is not expected to impact the region until the overnight hours into Saturday, so Friday will be another warm day as we remain east of the dryline. A lee-side low is expected to develop and shift into the Panhandles by the afternoon, promoting increasingly breezy conditions with gusts to 25-35 mph in the afternoon.

We may observe a few showers and storms in our northwest on Friday as increased lift out ahead of the incoming system spreads further east into Texas and Oklahoma, and have continued to advertise isolated chances during the day. Just how much convective initiation we will see is uncertain as most CAMs and medium resolution guidance have an elevated cap in place during the afternoon, which would ultimately inhibit storm development.
However, we will need to remain cognizant as forecast soundings show efficient instability and shear along with steep lapse rates in the warm sector environment. All this being said: during the day most of us will likely remain dry, but if a storm is able to develop and break through the cap, it would have the potential to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The highest severe threat is currently displaced to our north closer to the triple point of the surface low and various surface boundaries/fronts.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The front will move through North and Central Texas overnight into Saturday morning, bringing cooler conditions and gusty north winds. With ample moisture out ahead of the incoming boundary, showers and storms are expected to develop along and behind the front through Saturday as it advances south. While the overall severe threat with the frontal activity is low, the aforementioned pre-storm environment in the short term discussion above would allow for the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe storms along the front mainly capable of hail and wind gusts.
Again, the higher severe threat remains out of our CWA to the north where better lift resides. Anything that lingers behind the front would be elevated in nature, with potentially some small hail falling out of any more robust cores. Post-frontal showers will gradually shift south of our area, eventually coming to an end by Sunday. Sunday morning is progged to be the coolest part of the forecast, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler post- frontal conditions in the 60s and 70s are expected to persist into this next week, though building ridging will call for a warm up towards the end of the forecast. Additional chances for rain continue to be present the first half of next week as shortwave disturbances travel across the Plains, but it is too early to go into specifics.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A much quieter 24-30 hours is in store at the airports. VFR will prevail for the next handful of hours before a deck of MVFR stratus spreads across the TAF sites just prior to daybreak (10-11Z). MVFR cigs will persist through the morning, gradually lifting and scattering back to VFR by the afternoon. Southerly winds between 10- 15 kts and SCT low clouds around 3-4 kt will generally prevail the rest of the period. Another stratus deck will spread across the airports Friday morning, but is just beyond the extended TAF and will be included in later issuances.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 67 85 58 / 0 10 10 50 Waco 85 66 86 60 / 0 0 0 20 Paris 83 65 83 56 / 10 10 10 50 Denton 86 66 83 53 / 0 10 10 60 McKinney 85 66 83 56 / 0 10 10 60 Dallas 88 67 85 57 / 0 10 10 50 Terrell 85 66 85 60 / 0 10 10 40 Corsicana 87 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 87 66 88 62 / 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 88 65 85 53 / 10 10 10 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.