Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX
September 15, 2024 10:40 PM CDT (03:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:04 AM Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 5:17 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 152327 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 627 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening Through Tuesday Morning/
Over the last few hours, scattered showers and storms have spread near and south of a weak surface boundary that is draped across western North Texas and Central Texas. This will continue over the next couple hours as peak diurnal heating begins to be lost.
Severe weather is unlikely, though a few more strong storms capable of gusty downburst winds, frequent lightning, and brief, heavy rain will be possible through sundown. Any lingering shower or storm across Central Texas and the Big Country will dissipate later this evening. The aforementioned weak front will continue to meander southwest across the rest of Central Texas overnight, putting the entire region into east-to-northeast flow at the surface and low-levels. The upslope component of the easterly winds will help to keep us a tad cooler than the previous night, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s expected.
Over the day Monday, the broad mid-level ridge to our west will continue to sharpen and build further east into the Southern Plains. This will promote dry conditions and near-to-above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas through the rest of the short term forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Some guidance highlights isolated convection to our east during the afternoon hours. While majority of guidance keeps this activity out of our CWA, have included a silent 10% for our East Texas and eastern Central Texas counties to account for the low potential for a stray shower to venture further west. We'll keep an eye on future model guidance for more certainty and adjust as necessary.
Otherwise, the forecast period will end quietly with another lukewarm, muggy morning on Tuesday. Morning lows will once again bottom out in the mid-upper 60s for most, while areas in the urban heat island of the DFW Metroplex will only drop to the low 70s.
Prater
LONG TERM
/Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/
Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period, resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are currently expected through the end of the work week.
There is a glimmer of hope that we'll return to a more active pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus over the next several days.
Barnes
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and storms have blossomed across western North Texas and throughout Central Texas over the last several hours.
While coverage will begin to wane through the evening, this activity will continue to impact ACT through around 2Z, but remain west of the D10 TAF sites. Northeasterly winds at D10 and westerly winds at ACT will settle out of the E-SE later this evening, but speeds should stay around 5 KTS or less to preclude flow changes.
A deck of MVFR stratus is likely to spread across East Texas overnight, approaching the eastern D10 sites (GKY/DAL/DFW) near daybreak. While probabilities of MVFR cigs at the terminals remain below 30-40% and guidance is not keen on bringing them to the TAF sites, have introduced a TEMPO between 13-16Z at the aforementioned sites to account for any further westward expansion.
Otherwise, winds are expected to shift back to the northeast by 12Z Monday, with afternoon conditions remaining VFR.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 71 93 69 94 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 86 68 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 0 Denton 67 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 67 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 70 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 67 89 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 70 91 70 92 72 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 94 69 95 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 92 67 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 627 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening Through Tuesday Morning/
Over the last few hours, scattered showers and storms have spread near and south of a weak surface boundary that is draped across western North Texas and Central Texas. This will continue over the next couple hours as peak diurnal heating begins to be lost.
Severe weather is unlikely, though a few more strong storms capable of gusty downburst winds, frequent lightning, and brief, heavy rain will be possible through sundown. Any lingering shower or storm across Central Texas and the Big Country will dissipate later this evening. The aforementioned weak front will continue to meander southwest across the rest of Central Texas overnight, putting the entire region into east-to-northeast flow at the surface and low-levels. The upslope component of the easterly winds will help to keep us a tad cooler than the previous night, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s expected.
Over the day Monday, the broad mid-level ridge to our west will continue to sharpen and build further east into the Southern Plains. This will promote dry conditions and near-to-above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas through the rest of the short term forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Some guidance highlights isolated convection to our east during the afternoon hours. While majority of guidance keeps this activity out of our CWA, have included a silent 10% for our East Texas and eastern Central Texas counties to account for the low potential for a stray shower to venture further west. We'll keep an eye on future model guidance for more certainty and adjust as necessary.
Otherwise, the forecast period will end quietly with another lukewarm, muggy morning on Tuesday. Morning lows will once again bottom out in the mid-upper 60s for most, while areas in the urban heat island of the DFW Metroplex will only drop to the low 70s.
Prater
LONG TERM
/Issued 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/
Summer-like weather will continue for much of the upcoming work week as weak upper level ridging prevails aloft. High temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping out in the mid 90s for most locations each day. Gulf moisture will be especially prevalent during the mid to late week time period, resulting in warm and muggy mornings with low temperatures only falling into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values may surpass the triple digit mark for many locations, particularly Wednesday through Friday. No chances for showers and thunderstorms are currently expected through the end of the work week.
There is a glimmer of hope that we'll return to a more active pattern heading into next weekend as an upper level trough works to break down the ridge over the southern CONUS. The NBM brings low storm chances back to the region Friday evening, with storm chances possibly lingering through the weekend. Stay tuned (and keep your fingers crossed) as these details come more into focus over the next several days.
Barnes
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
Scattered showers and storms have blossomed across western North Texas and throughout Central Texas over the last several hours.
While coverage will begin to wane through the evening, this activity will continue to impact ACT through around 2Z, but remain west of the D10 TAF sites. Northeasterly winds at D10 and westerly winds at ACT will settle out of the E-SE later this evening, but speeds should stay around 5 KTS or less to preclude flow changes.
A deck of MVFR stratus is likely to spread across East Texas overnight, approaching the eastern D10 sites (GKY/DAL/DFW) near daybreak. While probabilities of MVFR cigs at the terminals remain below 30-40% and guidance is not keen on bringing them to the TAF sites, have introduced a TEMPO between 13-16Z at the aforementioned sites to account for any further westward expansion.
Otherwise, winds are expected to shift back to the northeast by 12Z Monday, with afternoon conditions remaining VFR.
Prater
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 71 93 69 94 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 Paris 67 86 68 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 0 Denton 67 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 67 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 70 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 67 89 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 70 91 70 92 72 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 94 69 95 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 92 67 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPRX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPRX
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPRX
Wind History graph: PRX
(wind in knots)
Shreveport, LA,
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