Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Myrtle Beach, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Clearing and Colder Through Thursday.

2) Stout frontal system brings a good dose of rain to the area Saturday night through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Clearing and Colder Through Thursday.

A cold front associated with a modest mid level trough will continue to push southward this afternoon into/through the evening hours. Residual pops are in place for just the next few hours. While the cold air advection seems modest especially with regards to recent events 850mb temperatures will drift toward freezing. Lows early Thursday will dip to the lower 30s with highs slowly recovering and benefiting from mid February timing reaching the middle to upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Stout frontal system brings a good dose of rain to the area Saturday night through Sunday night.

Forecast guidance differs greatly on the timing and intensity of this system aloft, but generally speaking, a shortwave trough exits south of ArkLaTex early Sunday, quickly moving eastward through the Gulf and into the Atlantic sometime Monday.

Meanwhile, at the surface, the cold front that is moving through our area today will have a chance to push as far south as north or central Florida over the next few days. It will eventually stall out and change characteristics, acting more like a warm front. The increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow this front to surge northward all the way back to the Carolinas early Sunday. This puts us thoroughly in the warm sector, ahead of a surface low and associated cold front that will be pulling through the Deep South and Gulf coast. Plenty of deep moisture fills the atmosphere, with precipitable water values climbing up to near 1.15" or so. This is just shy of the 90th percentile of all historical sounding data taken at the CHS and MHX RAOB sites.

This moisture will combine with some good jet dynamics to deliver us some of the better rainfall we've seen in months. Longer range guidance suggests most areas should see at least half an inch, while some may see over an inch of rain. Rain gradually starts picking up from west to east Saturday night, last through all day Sunday, and potentially even into Monday morning.

This would most certainly be a welcomed sight, but likely won't do much for our ongoing drought. Per the U.S. Drought Monitor, the grand majority of the area is sitting in a D1 "Moderate Drought".
Other parts of the Pee Dee region along with the northern portions of Robeson and Bladen Counties are in a D2 "Severe Drought". This rain is a step in the right direction, but we've got a long way to go. Drought conditions are likely to continue into the spring at this point.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Potential residual MVFR ceilings, AOA 2500 ft, possible at the coastal terminals thru 01Z. Not enough probability to place MVFR in the TAFs themselves but warrants a mention here.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the entire 00Z Taf Issuance Period. Cold front will sink further south of the area this evening with stratocu/altocu cloud decks, 5k to 12k ft, giving way to thin cirrus overnight thru Thu. Drier air. lower dewpoints, along with CAA, will infiltrate the area later this evening and overnight. Remote possibility of fog prior to the drier air but the window of observing is small given those lower dewpoints already infiltrating portions of SE NC and NE SC and continuing to sink SSE. Winds generally WNW-NW 6 kt or less, becoming NNW-N 6 to 10 kt once the CAA and drier air encompass the area. Winds will back to the NW 5 kt Thu aftn.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions dominate Thu night thru Sat with high pressure prevailing. Flight restrictions possible later Sat night into Mon as a potential low pressure system affects the area.

MARINE
Through Thursday...Winds will quickly switch to a northerly component this evening as a cold front moves across. While there may be a gust or two at or slightly eclipsing 25 knots this will be the exception and a headline is not needed/warranted at this point. Sustained winds will be 15-20 knots. Significant seas will be on the lower side of winds noting the fetch change with 2-4 feet.

Thursday Night through Monday...Northwesterly winds at 5-10 kts gradually veer to the northeast through Friday, with gradient winds temporarily increasing to 10-15 kts for a time. This gradient quickly drops off Friday evening, with speeds decreasing towards 5 kts. Veering continues to the southeast through Saturday night, with winds remaining around the same.
Seas are 1-2 ft throughout this entire time. Next frontal system will move through Sunday and Monday, with plenty of rainfall on the way. Southerly winds and seas increase significantly, reaching Small Craft Advisory thresholds sometime Sunday afternoon. After the front moves through Sunday night, winds will continue to veer westerly and then northwesterly through Monday. Advisory conditions appear to stick around into Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.