Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Forest, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Current visible satellite imagery shows low clouds have cleared out of the coastal basin, likely not to return until next week as offshore flow prevails through this weekend. Strong northerly winds will affect the usual areas through Friday as upper level flow becomes more north to south oriented. This includes south- facing coastal slopes and inland valleys north of San Diego County, where gusts 30-40 mph will be common with isolated gusts exceeding 50 mph. For today, strong wind gusts will also be common through the High Desert and through the Coachella Valley.

By Friday evening, a robust shortwave trough will begin to drag the longwave trough back to the southwest. Current guidance shows this piece of energy working to strengthen the upper flow as it moves across southern California sometime early Saturday. This in combination with a developing surface high over the intermountain west may cause for quite strong northeasterly winds to surface along coastal slopes and into inland valleys on Saturday. NBM probability of exceeding 60 mph gusts in areas surrounding the Cajon Pass is 60-90%. Thus, a High Wind Watch has been posted for Saturday along the San Bernardino County coastal slopes and into the northern Inland Empire. In addition, the northeasterly direction should allow gusty winds to expand to include all coastal slopes and inland valleys through the remainder of the weekend.

As the trough axis continues to dive southwest this weekend, it will begin to entrain moisture from the ocean. There is a slight chance for showers, mainly over San Diego County from Sunday night into Monday. However, guidance continues to trend drier as the low pushes further south and east with recent model runs.
Regardless, no impacts from precip are expected at this time.

Beyond Monday, there is good agreement that an upper ridge will move in from the west. Warm and sunny conditions should prevail through the middle of next week with no signs yet of unsettled weather, thereafter.

AVIATION
051835Z
Coast/Valleys
Mostly clear skies expected through the period. Gusts 20-30 kts in northern Inland Empire below mountain passes through 02Z this evening. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts expected. Winds picking up again after 15Z with gusts a bit stronger on Friday morning/early afternoon 14-20Z. Moderate confidence on winds reaching 35 kts at KONT and 25 kts at KSNA during this time.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions today and tonight. Gusty northerly winds expected: 25-40 kts with isold gusts to 55 kts through mountain passes and on coastal facing foothills.
Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts in lee (south of) mountains mainly in SBD County. Moderate confidence on KPSP gusting to 35 kts until 00Z this afternoon.

MARINE
Stronger northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts will develop today generating choppy and hazardous conditions through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory contains the details. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.