Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irvine, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This afternoon...Sfc pressure gradients remain offshore but are beginning to trend a little weaker, with -5.4 SAN-DAG. Currently there are several locations reporting wind gusts of 45-55 mph and one location reporting gusts to 61 mph. Temperatures are generally a few degrees warmer than at this time yesterday.

From previous discussion...
Areas of northeasterly to easterly Santa Ana winds will continue into Wednesday afternoon, with winds of 25 to 35 mph along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains gusting to 55 mph and isolated higher gusts. Lowest humidity for inland areas will fall to around 10 percent this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, with poor overnight recovery and only a slight recovery on Thursday with weaker winds.

High temperatures will be warmer for today and Wednesday, then a little cooler for the coast and valleys on Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be around 5 degrees above average for the coast and valleys and a few degrees below average for the mountains and deserts with most areas within a few degrees of average on Thursday.

A closed upper low currently about 700 miles southwest of San Diego off the coast of northern Baja will move inland across northern Baja and far southern California on Thursday night bringing onshore flow and cooling for Friday and Saturday. The low is currently producing convection with lightning but the chances for those elements reaching SoCal is low at this time.

There is greater model spread in weak upper level low pressure systems moving southward in the mean flow along the California coast from just off to just inland from the coast. One or more of these weak systems could bring some light precipitation over the weekend, but with low confidence in the details. NBM has a slight chance of showers over the weekend, mainly across San Diego County from the coast to the mountains, with a 15 to 25 percent chance of 0.01 inch or more of precipitation and around a 20 percent chance for 0.10 inch or more of precipitation. The snow level will be around 5000 feet.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will likely return early next week but with some model differences in timing and a wider and fairly even distribution in intensity from weak to strong.



AVIATION
142130Z...Clear skies will continue today and Wednesday.
Areas of gusty ENE/east winds 20-35 kt, locally to 45 kt, will continue mainly in all foothills, parts of the northern Inland Empire, and inland Orange County, along with local LLWS and locally moderate to strong up/downdrafts. Strongest winds will generally be through 15/00Z. After 00Z, areas of gusty winds will become more isolated and confined to foothills. Stronger winds will spread west again into similar areas as this afternoon after 17-18Z Wednesday, but will then gradually diminish in strength through the day Wednesday.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Areas of gusty northeast to east Santa Ana winds will continue through Wednesday along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains, with winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 55 mph and isolated higher gusts. Lowest daytime humidity will fall to around 10 percent for inland areas, with poor overnight recovery.
It will continue to be very dry inland on Thursday, but with weaker winds and the potential for a sea breeze in the afternoon.
Cooler on Friday and Saturday with a recovery in humidity as a weak low pressure system moves inland somewhere in the vicinity of northern Baja.

There is a slight chance of light precipitation for the weekend, mainly for San Diego County from the coast to the mountains, with the chance for wetting precipitation around 10 percent. Periods of gusty Santa Ana winds will likely return early next week, but with some model differences in timing and a wider and fairly even distribution in intensity from weak to strong.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The Inland Empire-San Diego County Inland Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains- Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest.

PZ...None.