Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Briarcliffe Acres, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong storm system will bring a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for isolated severe storms through tonight and an enhanced (3 out of 5 risk near coast) to moderate (4 out of 5 risk inland)
threat for scattered to possibly widespread severe storms Monday afternoon and early evening.

2) Near-freezing temperatures are possible Monday night and subfreezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong storm system will bring a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for isolated severe storms through tonight and an enhanced (3 out of 5 risk near coast) to moderate (4 out of 5 risk inland) threat for scattered to possibly widespread severe storms Monday afternoon and early evening.

A strong storm system will bring a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for isolated severe storms through tonight and an enhanced (3 out of 5 risk near coast) to moderate (4 out of 5 risk inland)
threat for scattered to possibly widespread severe storms Monday afternoon and early evening.

A very active period is expected through Monday as anomolously strong/deep upper trough to the northwest clips the region. A surface warm front will shift north through SE NC and NE SC today with the region solidly in the pre-cold frontal warm sector tonight into Monday. There will be a low risk for a few severe storms w/ damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and/or mainly weak tornadoes through tonight.

The strong surface cold front will approach SE NC and NE SC from the west later Monday morning before pushing through the area and offshore through the afternoon into early evening. Generally expect more isolated storms early in the day which will bring a risk for damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes (possibly strong). Then a squall line ahead of the cold front will impact the area from west to east in the afternoon through possibly early evening with the main hazard being damaging straight-line wind gusts, although isolated tornadoes (maybe strong) are also possible. However, it should be noted that there is still some uncertainty in the severe weather risk, especially near the coast up into the Cape Fear where there should be a decent marine influence that would limit instability there. Much will likely depend on how intense the squall line becomes as the stronger it is the more likely it will be able to penetrate the marine layer and bring stronger winds to the surface, especially the farther inland you go.

Also, even outside of any strong to severe storms there will be a risk for wind gusts up to around 50 mph Monday, especially if any breaks in the clouds occur, and this could prompt a Wind Advisory when/if confidence increases.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near-freezing temperatures are possible Monday night and subfreezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night.

Temps are expected to bottom out in the 30s Monday night.
Although some guidance indicates temps aob freezing, favored the warmer guidance due to winds staying up through the night and guidance is typically too warm in this scenario. The wind should also preclude areas of frost. A freeze is likely though Tuesday night for most areas except perhaps right at the coast, with light wind and good radiational cooling conditions as the center of sfc high pressure resides close to the region. Another freeze is then possible Wednesday night but confidence is lower for that ones as it may be just confined to typical colder spots.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Moderate confidence through the 18Z TAF period. A warm front is expected to move north through the area later today and this evening followed by the approach of a strong cold front from the west on Monday which will lead to periods of showers/storms.
Mainly VFR to MVFR conditions expected, although IFR or worse conditions are possible at times due to low clouds/heavier precip. Also, winds will be a significant concern due to gusts (mainly after daybreak Mon) and LLWS (overnight, possibly into Mon near the coast).

Extended Forecast... A passing strong cold front Mon will bring showers/storms/gusty winds. Gusts of 50+ knots are possible with a likely squall line late Mon. After the CFP, VFR conditions should return late Mon night and prevail thru Thu.

MARINE
Through Monday... No big changes to the previous forecast with moderate to high confidence through the period. Hazardous marine conditions are expected through the period with gale force gusts possible, although not likely enough to prompt a Gale Watch or Warning due to the cool nearshore waters which will limit instability and vertical mixing down of stronger winds aloft.
At the very least gale to storm force wind gusts will likely occur in any strong to severe storms, along with the potential for waterspouts. Sea fog could also develop later today and continue into Monday, possibly becoming dense, as warmer and moister air moves in ahead of a strong cold front due to strong southerly winds.

Monday Night through Friday... The SCA continues through Tuesday morning with frequent gusts around 30 kt expected. Gale- force gusts are possible as well, but mainly confined to convection and can be handled with Special Marine Warnings.
Fairly benign marine conditions thereafter through Friday with wind no higher than 10-15 kt at times and seas consistently in the 2-4 ft range.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256.