Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic Beach, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Much colder and drier weather will continue to arrive behind a strong cold front this afternoon through tonight.

2) A strong cold frontal passage Monday and Monday night will bring another sharp cooldown through mid next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Much colder and drier weather will continue to arrive behind a strong cold front this afternoon through tonight.

A good 20 to 30 degree temperature drop will take place by this evening across much of the Carolinas as plenty of dry and cold air moves in behind exiting cold front. Pcp water values up around 1.5 inches ahead of front will drop to less than a quarter of an inch by this evening. Temps will be down in the 40s by this evening across the area and down in the mid 30s most places for lows. Skies will clear and winds will drop through the night as high pressure migrates overhead, and any wind sheltered spots could see temps drop below freezing. Frost is also possible in spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Monday and Monday night will bring another sharp cooldown through mid next week.

A big change in the weather pattern is expected starting Monday as an anomolously strong deep upper trough develops to the west around the MS Valley and then shifts eastward through mid week, albeit in a weakening state. Temperatures will go from above normal Monday to below normal Mon night and stay that way through Thursday. There looks to be a very low risk for a light freeze well inland Mon night, with a better risk for a widespread freeze Tue night. Temps should be a bit warmer Wed night but still in the mid 30s with some frost potential. Note that our local frost/freeze program does not typically start until Mar 21 so unless that changes we will not be issuing any frost/freeze headlines through this period.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The last of the low level stratus is clearing out of Southeast NC, with VFR conditions area wide for the 0z TAF period. There is a low chance of MVFR visibilities for a couple of hours for inland SE NC terminals near morning, but confidence is low due to lingering winds and dry air just above the surface and therefore have kept out of KLBT TAF. Northerly gusts up to 20-25 kts will linger for a couple more hours at coastal terminals before winds become light tonight as high pressure quickly builds in. Winds become southeasterly Friday morning, continuing to veer throughout the day with SSW winds forecasted by Friday afternoon around 10-15 kts.

Extended Forecast...VFR is expected Friday through the first half of the weekend. Flight restrictions are possible due to increasing rain chances Sun into Mon as the next frontal system affects the area.

MARINE
Through Friday...Tightened gradient flow and CAA will keep Gale conditions ongoing through late this evening as cold front moves through. SW winds ahead of the front will gust to 35 kts or so and will continue with N winds behind the front into this evening. Winds will diminish and continue to veer to the N and then E as high pressure moves closer overhead. Seas up to 4 to 7 ft with a few 8 fters in the outer waters will diminish as winds drop off overnight tonight. By Fri seas will be down to 2 to 4 ft with winds becoming onshore 15 kts or less.

Friday night through Tuesday...No big changes to the previous forecast with moderate confidence through the period. High pressure will give way to a strong cold front late Monday and Monday night.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible from late Sunday into early Tuesday. There is also a low risk for gale force gusts, especially Monday/Monday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-254-256.