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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 942 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Overnight..NW winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 942 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will bring minimal wind and seas through Thursday. Southerly flow returns on Friday ahead of a cold front that will stall near the waters over the weekend, bringing unsettled weather through Monday.

FXUS62 KILM 300514 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1214 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold Canadian high pressure will push offshore on Thursday with a gradual return to milder temperatures into the weekend. Rain chances will increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area through the weekend. A cold front will move through by Monday with drier air making its way in.

UPDATE
Previous forecast remains on track for a great radiational cooling night of below freezing temps.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure presently overhead will gradually shift offshore through Thursday. Light and variable winds this afternoon will likely go calm for most of the night, permitting better radiational cooling than the previous night amidst clear skies and very low dewpoints. As a result, have opted to go on the lower side of guidance for lows. Meanwhile, mid-level troughing will shift eastward in favor of ridging building in from the west. This will result in a quick warmup on Thursday up to around 60F after cold morning lows mainly in the 20s inland and low 30s near the coast. With a very weak pressure gradient in place, winds will remain light and variable through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
A change of airmass will occur through this period with a transition to warmer, cloudier and wetter weather into Friday.
The center of sfc high will be off the NC coast by Thurs eve leading way to a warmer and moister southerly return flow. The airmass will continue to warm into Fri as SW flow increases through the low levels as coastal trough/warm front lifts northward. A fairly zonal flow in the mid levels late Thursday will become slightly more amplified as shortwave rounds the base of the trough and H5 trough digs down from the Upper Midwest and ridge builds up from the western Caribbean through Fri. This will lead the way to a deeper return of a warm and moist air into the Carolinas. Pcp water down close to a quarter of an inch Thurs will increase by over an inch through Fri aftn.

Overall, clouds will increase into late Thurs. Weak isentropic lift in coastal trough/warm front initially will produce increasing clouds into Fri morning and then deeper southerly flow will increase rain chances through Fri with with temps warming through the 60s and remaining warm Fri night. Some elevated instability will exist late Fri, but main forcing will remain west of local area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley up to New England on Sat will drag a cold front eastward toward the Carolinas on Sat. Local area will remain in between deep positively tilted mid to upper trough to the west and ridge building to the east which will maintain a deep SW flow of warm and moist air but will also keep front running parallel to the flow and not get much of a push eastward. Therefore, deep layer moisture will continue with some mid to upper level perturbations riding through the Southeast as front makes slow progress eastward.
Overall, expect unsettled weather through the weekend with intermittent pcp with potential for some moderate to heavier rain associated with better lift as shortwave energy passes by and front makes its way into the area. Temps will remain above normal through the weekend with most places reaching around 70 with dewpoints up near or above 60.

Mid to upper trough finally moves through pushing front off the coast along with clouds and pcp on Monday. A deeper drier W-NW flow will develop with pcp water values dropping off from near 1.75 inches over the weekend down less than a half inch by Mon aftn. An overall cooling trend will take place behind front, but a more progressive flow may push another system through into midweek. Overall expect drier weather into early to midweek with temps trending back down to normal by Wed.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. As high pressure prevails winds will be light with a south to a southeast wind of 6 knots expected mainly from 16 to 22 UTC.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues into Friday, when scattered showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions at times through the weekend and into Monday.

MARINE
Through Thursday...High pressure will remain in control through the period with light and variable winds below 10 kts. Remnant 1-2 ft northeasterly wind waves at 3-4 sec will decline through this evening with 1 ft seas dominating through Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...High pressure will shift farther off the coast Thu night into Fri as a weak coastal trough/warm front lifts north into Fri. Light and variable flow will become southerly and increase through Fri. A deep southerly flow will continue through the weekend with sfc winds remaining S-SW up to 10 to 15 kts. This will push seas up from a meager 1 ft Thurs night up to 2 to 3 ft by Fri and up to 3 to 4 ft for most of the weekend as a cold front makes slow progress eastward through the Carolinas. Winds will increase up to 15 to 20 kts out of the west as front moves through into Mon. The offshore flow will keep greatest seas offshore with most waters in the 3 to 5 ft range on Mon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina, Tide feet

Dunn Sound
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Wed -- 02:52 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:11 AM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:36 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:30 PM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
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Dunn Sound, west end, South Carolina, Tide feet

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