Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

The coastal basin contains partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning overall, but a band of organized convection produced nuisance showers in southwest San Diego County earlier this morning. The band extended from just off Newport Beach southeast into downtown San Diego. Interestingly, San Diego got 0.02 inch for the weekend system, but 0.14 inch between 6-8 AM today. This band has disbanded, and no additional precipitation is in our forecast. Today we'll remain in cyclonic flow aloft and marginal instability, so shallow cumulus clouds will continue today from coast to mountains. Slightly higher pressure aloft develops Tuesday and Wednesday. This will trend us back to the more typical and stable marine layer situation with sunnier and warmer days after the coastal clouds nights and mornings. Temperatures will climb noticeably Tuesday, and settle a little cooler for Wednesday through Friday. For the weekend, we're watching a trough of low pressure, very much like the one we had go through last weekend. Model guidance is coming into better agreement, and there is more certainty than usual about the overall pattern six to seven days out. Details are still uncertain on timing, precipitation, if any, and wind strength. It will be cooler and the precip and wind details should be coming into greater focus in the next few days. The best chance of showers appears to be Sunday at the moment. Today we are reasonably confident that at least through Friday hazardous weather is not likely. So enjoy the spring weather pattern that's quite seasonal as we head into May.

AVIATION
281524Z
Coasts/Valleys
Areas of BKN-OVC clouds with variable bases 1800-5000 ft MSL will continue through 19Z Mon, with a gradual transition to SCT-local BKN clouds 2500-4000 ft MSL 19Z-22Z Mon.
ISOLD -SHRA will occur through 23Z Mon. Most VIS will be unrestricted below the cloud bases. Only local BKN low clouds are expected to develop Mon evening. Bases will lower to around 1000- 1500 ft MSL for the coastal areas, and 1500-3000 ft MSL inland after 29/12Z.

Mountains/Deserts...Areas of terrain obscurations below 6000 ft MSL will still occur over the coastal slopes and higher peaks due to clouds. After 28/23Z, clearing skies and unrestricted VIS will develop. Areas of west winds with gusts 25-40 kt will continue through 12Z Tue from the mountain crests through the desert slopes and east of passes.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday, though strong winds, possibly gale-force in the outer waters, could develop Friday night into Saturday.

BEACHES
Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet will occur through Wednesday. Highest surf will occur on south facing beaches. Strong rip currents are expected. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday evening for the elevated surf.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.