Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:08 AM EDT (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 322 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 322 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A boundary will slowly approach the waters from the mainland tonight through Friday resulting in an increase in winds and seas respectively. High pressure anchored well offshore and weak troughing across the central carolinas this weekend will result in light S to sw winds and fairly benign seas through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180718
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
318 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A trough approaching from the west through Friday will produce
a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the
hot and humid weather will continue thru the weekend and into
early next week. A cold front could push to and across the
forecast area the middle of next week, and possibly break the
string of hot and humid days.

Near term through Friday
As of 300 am Sunday...

main concern for the next 36 hours continues to be afternoon high
heat indices that could result in heat illnesses.

High pressure aloft remains in place with south southwest wind flow
at ground level. This set up will allow afternoon temperatures to
rise into the mid to upper 90s inland, with values closer to the
coast in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Regardless of how high
afternoon temperatures actually reach, the combination with dew
points in the mid to upper 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
up to 106+ for many locations. Heat illnesses are possible for
those spending time outdoors during the hours of 12 pm to 7 pm this
evening.

Afternoon instability remains across the area today with plenty of
afternoon heating, which will likely lead to another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the peak afternoon
heating. Latest short term high resolution guidance also hints at
precipitation development, but with lack of upper level wind, storms
are not expected to be severe.

Heat and chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue to
be the headlines in the forecast for Friday.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Though greatly diminished in coverage and
intensity, thunderstorms will still be possible Friday night.

Shortwave ripples of energy will be providing mid level ascent atop
piedmont trough induced surface convergence. Mid level trough axis
crosses on Saturday turning flow northerly and then easterly. The
piedmont trough also weakens and should serves as less of a focus
for convection. The sea breeze should be the primary mechanism. With
the weakened surface boundary and a slight rising of heights rain
chances should fall to minimal Saturday night. Temperatures by day
and night will run similarly elevated to previous days.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... What starts Sunday as a weakness in the
height field between two ridges will gradually transition into
bonafide troughniness in the east. This will lead to a gradual ramp
up of rain chances and a gradual abating trend in the heat. Surface
frontal passage is slated for Tuesday or perhaps a tad slower. Even
with some of the quicker solutions rain chances will linger into
Wednesday due to the proximity of the boundary. Temperatures will
finally dip below climatology.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 6z...VFR for the next 24 hours for area terminals. Light
patchy ground fog possible through sunrise. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible again this afternoon with greater confidence
in vicinity formation rather than directly affecting area runways.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection the first part of the upcoming
week.

Marine
As of 300 am Thursday... Light southerly winds with afternoon
gusts up to 20-25 kts as sea breeze circulation develops for the
next 36 hours. Wave heights between 2 to 4 feet and isolated 5
feet expected out of the southwest around 4 to 6 seconds with
swell from the southeast around 10 seconds.

Southwesterly flow so typical of the time of
year will weaken Friday night as piedmont trough does the same. They
will continue in the 10-15 kt range early in the weekend, which
should allow the 4 ft seas to be dropped out of the forecast. Later
in the weekend both the 20kt winds and 4 ft seas should make their
return as the trough restrengthens.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for scz017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Mck
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi39 min 84°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi61 min SW 9.7 G 16 80°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi59 min 80°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi61 min SW 12 G 18 82°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi75 min SSW 11 G 12 82°F 78°F1015.8 hPa
WLON7 28 mi75 min 82°F 86°F1016.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi39 min SW 14 G 18 84°F 84°F1016.6 hPa80°F
41119 29 mi79 min 84°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi61 min WSW 14 G 19 81°F 83°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi4.6 hrsSSW 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F78°F86%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalm------------CalmSW5S5S4S4S3S4SW5S5S5S6S4S3CalmS5
2 days agoW4CalmNW4NW6N3NW5N4N5CalmCalmSE4SE5S4SW7SW6SW5SW5SW6SW4CalmSW3SW4CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.90.80.20.41.12.133.74.143.42.51.60.70.20.31.12.23.34.24.84.94.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:08 PM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.21.10.40.20.71.62.63.33.83.93.52.81.80.90.30.20.71.72.83.74.44.74.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.