Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

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Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday August 25, 2019 1:49 AM EDT (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 844 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early this evening. Showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers and tstms likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Thu..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 844 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will slowly move just offshore Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, some gradual development is still possible with an area of low pressure to move ne from the bahamas and florida Sunday and Monday. Mariners should Monitor the forecast closely for potential changes. A weaker pressure pattern is expected to develop over the area by midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 250049
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
849 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will nose down the east coast this weekend into
mon. Mainly cloudy skies are expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible as a stalled front remains just
south and east of the area. A tropical low over southern florida
tonight will slowly push off the florida east coast and track
northeastward Sun thru the mid-week period of next week. It's
closest approach will occur late Sun thru mon, and will remain
well offshore as it passes by.

Near term through Sunday night
A cold front resides offshore although it has most likely
become distorted as a modest sea breeze has formed. There is an
east west 850mb front which the area just off CAPE fear seems to
like from a convection standpoint. And for good measure there
is some upper level jet dynamics that is or will be moving
across the area shortly. For all of these features, not a lot
happening with some thunder along the sea breeze and light
showers elsewhere. There is just little instability to work
with. I have trimmed back pops considerably for the overnight
hours and through Sunday as the forcing exits and drier air
pushes in. There is really no high resolution or global guidance
showing much (if anything) after the late afternoon hours.

Little change with the temperature forecast although I think
upper 60s is a bit low for tonight with all the cloud cover
lingering.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Models have come to a better agreement in the slow development
of a tropical subtropical system, well offshore from the ga and
sc coasts at the start of this period. It hooks up with the old
frontal boundary or baroclinic zone during Mon and tracks ne
along it, and gaining some speed as it begins to come in
contact with the westerlies aloft. By Tue morning it's progged
to be well offshore from CAPE hatteras, and even further
offshore from norfolk by Wed daybreak. The bulk of the pcpn
should stay off the ilm CWA coast even at it's closest approach
directly from this is progged to early this period.

Synoptically, models have dry sfc high pressure wedging down
the east coast of the u.S Monday into tue, with the pressure
pattern quite similar to winter-time pattern. Dry air is
noted in the mid-levels thru Monday, with low levels having
ne winds and moisture from off the atlantic, thus more clouds
than sun. Low chance pops will be advertised for both days for
mainly showers with possible thunder during daylights hrs. An
eastward moving sfc cold front will reach the western carolinas
late Tue night. Low chance pops ahead of the cold front will be
advertised with moderate chance east of the i-95 corridor.

Temps this period will run at or below climo thruout this
period.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The start of this period will feature the tropical subtropical
entity well offshore from the mid-atlantic states and tracking
off to the ne. The main concern for Wed thru Fri will be the
amplifying upper trof and the actual passage of a sfc cold
front thru the entire ilm cwa. The main upper trof axis will
either lie overhead or remain just west of the fa. With the
latter likely to occur, resulting in the sfc front stalling
across portions of the fa rather than pushing it entirely
across the fa and off the carolina coasts. Still too early for
a clean cfp at this time of the year. Will indicate pops in
the low chance except moderate chance in the vicinity of the
cold front. Over land areas, will indicate showers at night
with daytime heating supporting thunder. And the adjacent atl
waters where thunder will be advertised thruout the day. Temps
thru this period will run near normal for daytime highs and at
or slightly above normal for daily lows.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... A challenging period for aviation concerns as a cold
front and wedging high pressure will be the main players. For
tonight expect ifr CIGS to develop via the abundant moisture and
overrunning setup. Expect a slow mixing out of ifr conditions Sunday
morning as the Sun angle creeps ever lower with the passing days. A
few passing showers are possible at terminals tonight and isolated
thunder is possible aft 18z depending on how much insolation can get
through cigs.

Extended... Front will likely move just off the coast into
Sunday but lingering moisture likely to lead to additional
restrictions. Also watching potential tropical system moving ne
just off the coast into early next week. Confidence low on
related specifics at this time.

Marine
Tonight thru Sun night:
kind of a lazy northeast flow across the waters this afternoon
as high pressure pushes in from the northeast. I havn't seen
much more than ten knots or so. This will gradually change as
the flow becomes better defined in time as troughing offshore
and the high team up. This sets the stage for sustained winds of
15-20 knots and embedded higher surges especially late Sunday
into Sunday night. These winds could spawn a small craft
advisory later Sunday into Sunday night. Will go ahead and issue
the advisory
mon thru thu:
all eyes will be on the tropical subtropical entity moving off
to the ne, and remaining over the adjacent offshore waters at
it's closest approach to the local waters early mon. Will be
partially under the isobaric pattern associated with the
"entity" early this period. NE winds will peak late Sun night
into mon, possibly reaching SCA levels, mainly in gusts. In
addition, seas will have already built to SCA levels of 6+ ft at
the start of this period. Seas will be dominated by NE wind
driven waves at 5 to 6 second periods... With an underlying 7 to
possibly 8 second period SE "pseudo" or "fresh" swell. For mon
night thru wed, looking at diminishing winds and subsiding seas
in the wake of the departing "entity" and ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front from the west. Modest chance for
convection will occur early on this period with diminishing pops
there-after. Will see diurnally induced convection over the
warm waters at night, adding to the convection already along
that baroclinic zone early on this period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Sunday to noon edt Monday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... 31
marine... Dch shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi49 min 83°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi41 min NNE 16 G 21 74°F 83°F1017.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi39 min 83°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi41 min NE 16 G 19 73°F 84°F1017 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi49 min N 14 G 16 72°F 84°F1017.4 hPa (+0.0)
WLON7 28 mi55 min 73°F 85°F1018.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi29 min E 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 84°F1015.9 hPa74°F
41119 29 mi59 min 84°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi41 min NE 19 G 25 75°F 84°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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S7SW7SW7SW7--SW8--SW6SW7SW7SW8SW7SW6SW8SW7SW8SW9
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2 days agoSW7W7SW7SW6S8--SW6SW4--------------------CalmCalm--SW9--W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Sun -- 01:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:47 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.43.843.83.32.51.710.60.61.22.23.34.24.84.94.63.932.11.411.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.233.53.83.73.32.71.91.20.70.50.91.72.83.84.44.74.543.22.31.61.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.