Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:40PM Monday October 14, 2019 10:31 PM EDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Overnight..N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Wed..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Dry high pressure builds down from the north tonight into early Tuesday. Rain is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front lifts north. Cooler and drier air is then expected Wednesday night through this weekend behind a cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 142314
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
714 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Dry high pressure will build in from the north through Tuesday.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
warm front lifts north. Cooler and drier air is expected
Thursday and Friday with temperatures moderating for the
weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary across the area
with 1019 mb high pressure across the tn valley. The high slides
east into the area tonight, leading to dry wx and a mostly clear sky
with light N winds. This will allow for temps to cool much further
than last night... Lows range through the 50s.

Main forecast change was to slow down timing of pops on Tuesday.

Although models have been known to be late with the onset of pcpn
associated with weak WAA ahead of an approaching warm front, most
guidance has slowed the timing of arrival of pcpn to the aftn over
sw areas, and after dark over NE areas. Otherwise, just some
increasing clouds with high temps in the mid upr 70s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Weak surface wave will move east along the front stalled across the
southeast Tue night into wed. The wave becomes a more defined surface
low Wed morning, passing west of the area and lifting the stalled
boundary north as a warm front. Rainfall chances ramp up Tue night
as deep moisture arrives. Instability is limited due to nocturnal
timing, but combination of convergence and mid-level forcing from
southern stream shortwave should ensure healthy coverage of
rain showers Tue night into wed.

Warm front will be north of the area with surface based instability
marginally increasing through midday wed. Cold front moves across
the forecast area Wed afternoon, ending any rainfall and ushering in
a cooler and drier air mass. Precipitable water in excess of 1.5
inches for an extended period, and in excess of 1.8 inches at times,
will help generate some healthy rainfall totals Tue night and first
part of wed. Many areas will see in excess of an inch of rain, which
should fall over an extended period of time.

Although cold advection following the cold front will be robust, not
expecting much in the way of strong severe storms Wed afternoon.

Limited MLCAPE and low shear will not produce an environment
supportive of strong severe storms. Temperatures well above climo
tue night and above climo Wed will end up near to slightly below
climo Wed night as cold advection kicks in.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Deep 5h trough Thu into Fri gives way to shortwave ridging Sat into
sun. Surface high builds in from the west as deep northwest flow
dries out the region. Deep mixing could make Thu afternoon breezy as
cold air continues spreading over the region. Moisture starts to
increase early next week as southern stream system moves along the
gulf coast. Unsure how far north the system will end up, lowering
confidence in rainfall chances. Pattern would tend to keep the
system farther south, crossing northern fl and moving out to sea sun
into mon.

-strong cold advection Thu into Fri will drop temps 5 to 10
degrees below climo to end the week.

-air mass moderates for the weekend with temperatures becoming
more seasonable.

-weak low moving along the gulf coast may spread clouds and
increase rain chances Sun night and mon.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
A large range of dew points across a cold front stationed just west
of the forecast area's coastline. Afternoon cumulus that developed
east of the front will dissipate overnight and the elevated dew
points in this area will help the formation of patchy fog along the
coast tonight. Moisture near the surface is shallow, so don't expect
ifr conditions, but a few areas of MVFR br are possible. For our
inland terminals, it will remain too dry on the western side of the
front for fog with dew points holding in the low 50s tonight.

Afternoon cumulus possible tomorrow ahead of mid-level clouds
developing late in the afternoon announcing the arrival of the next
storm system to affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Extended outlook... Ifr MVFR conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday with an improvement to cooler and drier conditions and
vfr through the remainder of the period.

Marine
Nw flow becomes N tonight at ~10 kt as high pressure builds in from
the w, and seas remain at 1-2 ft. Seas become 2-3 ft then for tue
with 10-15 kt NE winds ahead of an approaching warm front. This will
be primarily 3-4 second NE wind wave, but also includes a ~1 ft 9-10
second E swell.

Southwest flow will be increasing Tue night and Wed as warm front
lifts north of the waters and cold front approaches from the west.

Front moves across the waters later Wed with strong cold advection
resulting in offshore flow in excess of 20 kt Wed night. Small craft
advisory conditions are possible Tue night through Wed night,
although confidence on timing and duration is low. Gradient relaxes
as high pressure builds in from the west. Speeds drop to 10 kt or
less later Thu with offshore flow slowly become onshore Fri into
sat. Seas build from 2 to 3 ft Tue night to 4 to 6 ft on wed.

Offshore flow Wed night into Thu will drop seas for the end of the
week. Seas will be a mix of 4 to 5 sec wind wave, with a southerly
wind wave through Wed becoming a northerly wind wave Thu through
sat.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 21
marine... Iii mas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi31 min 76°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi83 min W 7.8 G 12 74°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi51 min 76°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi83 min W 9.7 G 12 74°F 76°F1017.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 72°F 76°F1017.5 hPa
WLON7 28 mi43 min 69°F 75°F1018.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi31 min W 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 1018 hPa (+1.4)66°F
41119 29 mi41 min 76°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi83 min W 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1016 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
S13
S11
SW5
W3
NW8
G14
NW8
G12
S3
G6
SW4
SW10
W3
W5
W4
G7
NW3
SE3
SE5
SE6
SE9
S10
S11
G14
S13
S12
S12
SW7
SW6
1 day
ago
SW8
SW9
SW6
SW5
SW5
SW6
W5
SW4
W4
SW2
NW1
W4
SE3
S3
SE7
S11
S14
S15
S13
S13
S13
S14
S14
S15
2 days
ago
NW5
NW4
NW3
NW5
W5
W5
W6
NW5
NW4
W5
G9
W7
G10
W7
G12
W8
G12
NW9
NW7
G11
NW6
G9
N2
S12
S12
S12
S16
S14
SW8
SW8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F92%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrSW5SW7SW7SW7SW10
G14
W6
G14
W4SW6CalmCalmN3N3CalmSW4S6S3S6SW5SW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW4SW5SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6S6S5S5S6S6S7S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW5NW4NW5NW10NW8NW7SW7S7SW5SW5S7SW6SW5SW5SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:49 PM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.11.10.50.51.32.53.74.65.15.14.63.62.51.50.80.61.12.13.24.14.74.84.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.41.30.60.40.923.24.14.74.94.63.82.81.80.90.50.81.62.73.64.34.64.43.8

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.