Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:27PM Friday July 10, 2020 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 10:17AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1011 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Rest of today..Variable winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw to S around 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt early, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1011 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Tropical storm fay near the delmarva coast this morning will continue to move northward through tonight. A slow moving front will be near or just west of the waters Sunday into early next week. The front is expected to dissipate by midweek, allowing offshore high pressure to gradually retake control of local weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 101400 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1000 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay near the Delmarva coast this morning will continue to move northward through tonight. A slow moving front will be near or just west of the area Sunday into early next week. The front is expected to dissipate by midweek, allowing offshore high pressure to gradually retake control of local weather.

UPDATE. Lower precipitable water values found across the northern zones and higher across the southern zones today. Convection is expected to be less in coverage this afternoon, with the best chances across the far southern areas. Otherwise expect a heat index in the upper 90s to around 100F most locations during the afternoon. No major changes made with the morning update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. A trough will linger at the surface and aloft over the area through Saturday, though the column will dry somewhat through the period. In combination with warm temperatures, this should result in mainly diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and storms both days. Maximums will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lower to middle 90s on tap for Saturday. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, the result will be heat index values peaking around 100 degrees today and up to 104 degrees Saturday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The bulk of the NWP guidance has the area fairly dry Sat night into Sun as a slug of drier mean layer RH air moves over the area from the west. That said, really hard to rule out diurnal convection with offshore high pressure/inland front pattern expected and have kept in 20-30 percent PoPs as a result. Slightly higher precip chance are advertised for Monday, as an upper trough axis and associated short wave activity tied to a system moving through the Great Lakes approach from the west. Better instability also expected on Mon, which should also help yield a little more coverage of showers/tstms. Temps in the short term expected to be a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 90s for highs and lows mid 70s except upper 70s coast. Heat index values will reach upper 90s to low 100s for a few hours both Sun and Mon, but expected to be below advisory criteria at this time.

Another thing we'll need to watch for is an increasing rip current threat through the period, as a long fetch of 15-25kt S winds develops off the SE US and Florida coasts between offshore high pressure, allowing SSE swell to come up along area beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. H5 trough axis will slowly slide offshore through Tue and Tue night, with ridging eventually taking over the mid/upper pattern as we move into the second part of the week. At the surface, the front/troughing just inland from the coast early in the long term will get taken over by offshore high pressure later in the week. This pattern will gradually limit convection potential as we move through the middle and back half of the workweek. Some potential for below climo coverage with this pattern and have made a slight trend in that direction based on latest guidance, but not enough confidence to go much below low chance PoPs at this time. Current forecast has heat indices below advisory criteria each day of the long term, but will need to watch as the deep layered ridging builds. The rip current threat mentioned in the Short Term section is anticipated to continue into midweek before easing late week as the ridging takes control and swell subsides to more typical summertime values.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Predominantly VFR throughout the 12Z TAF period. Typical convection will create a cloud ceiling at around 4000-5000ft late this morning. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the area today, with highest chances along the coast, thanks to the seabreeze. Indicated VCTS in the TAFs, but confidence is lower on where/when storms will pop up. Winds generally back towards the SSW today, and calm by the evening. MVFR fog possible, especially inland, and will reevaluate chances at 18Z TAF issuance.

Extended Outlook . Diurnal convection will continue, especially near the coast, with brief MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the weekend.

MARINE. Expect NW winds of 10 KT or less to become SW tonight into Saturday with an increase to 10 to 15 KT on tap for Saturday. Seas of 2 to 3 feet today and tonight will build to 3 to 4 feet Saturday.

Some potential for Small Craft Advisory criteria to be met, mainly in seas, Sun night into Mon as a long fetch of 15-25kt S winds develops off the SE US Coast. Best chance for advisory criteria being met is off our NC waters, esp. SE of Cape Fear. This is in response to offshore high pressure interacting with a slow moving front just to our west. Associated 6-8s SSE swell will come down to the 3-4ft range into Tue. Winds will also trend more Wly around 10kts as weak front/trough drifts towards the coast in the morning, before trending to a sea breeze in the afternoon. Expect a period of decent boating conditions mid to late next week as high pressure impacts the area, with a couple of days with winds/seas mostly below 15kt/3ft possible.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . MCW UPDATE . SRP NEAR TERM . 31 SHORT TERM . MCW LONG TERM . MCW AVIATION . IGB MARINE . MCW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi53 min 84°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi75 min E 1.9 G 3.9 82°F 83°F1012.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi46 min 86°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi75 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 84°F1012.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi53 min ESE 5.1 G 6 84°F 1011.8 hPa
WLON7 28 mi53 min 92°F 1012.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi163 min NNW 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 74°F
41119 29 mi66 min 85°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi75 min N 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 84°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi28 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F72°F64%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N8
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N6N9CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW4NW3CalmNW3NW5N3N3N3N3N4CalmCalmNW3NW5SE3
1 day agoE3N7E3E4CalmN3SE3CalmN4NW3N4N5N6N4N3N5N5N6N5NW5NW7NW8N9N7
2 days agoSE5SE5SE5SE7S7S5S4S3CalmSE3SE4S4CalmCalmE5CalmNE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmN5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:15 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.33.52.51.50.70.40.61.42.33.13.743.93.42.61.81.10.70.91.52.43.23.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:14 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.34.23.62.81.80.90.40.411.82.73.33.73.83.42.721.20.80.71.222.83.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.