Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday January 19, 2020 12:06 PM EST (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:19AMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 912 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 912 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will push off the carolina coast early Sunday afternoon and bring chances for rain showers and Thunderstorms out beyond 20 nm. Increased winds and waves will continue through Monday as high pressure settles into the region. Small craft advisory conditions possible again mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 191623 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1126 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold and dry conditions will develop today and persist for much of next week as arctic high pressure builds in.

UPDATE. Weak line of showers from Florence to Bladen counties is quickly moving towards the coast. Line will have moved offshore shortly after noon, with no rain behind it. Slightly slowed down decrease in POPs and dewpoints. Otherwise, no major changes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Light rain showers this morning ahead of a cold front that will push through the Carolinas this afternoon. Before the onset of cooler air moving into the region, high temperatures today will reach into the low to mid 60s before dropping this afternoon and evening. Below freezing temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 20s inland to lower 30s near the coast.

High pressure returns Monday with cool northerly winds across the area with highs reaching into the low to mid 40s, which is about 10 degrees below normal for mid January.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Cold and dry conditions for the short term period as arctic high pressure builds in. Expect widespread lower to middle 20s for actual temperatures Tuesday morning with similar values Wednesday. The boundary layer winds remain elevated both mornings so guidance could be a little cool. Highs Tuesday will be a grind to reach north of 40 degrees most areas. Its worth watching the evolution of the strong vort max moving across Tuesday as albeit rare these, can with pure dynamic lift, crank out a little qpf.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mid level ridging will follow the early week trough with a warmup in store. It will take a little time however as Wednesday and Thursday will remain cold. A cold front late in the work week or early in the weekend will be the next significant system to move across. Global/medium range guidance still has some timing differences so prudence calls for a day or two of pops this far out in time.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Some MVFR ceilings along the coast with perhaps a sprinkle, otherwise VFR. Look for a cirrus ceiling this afternoon with gusty northwest winds. Clear skies tonight with no fog expected. Monday, nearly clear skies with a north wind.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions thru next week. Arctic high pressure will dominate.

MARINE. Small craft advisory continues until this afternoon as a cold front passes and brings a wind shift from the southwest to the northwest around 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and seas between 4 and 8 feet at 6 to 8 seconds. High pressure returns Monday with much cooler temperatures and wind/wave conditions improving.

Blustery and rugged marine conditions still expected for the first few days of the short term and extended forecast periods. North winds between 15-25 knots will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday probably highest Wednesday. Guidance has ticked up with speeds so gale conditions are now at least a remote possibility with almost certain small craft conditions. Significant seas, with the higher values across the outskirts of the forecast zones will be reaching or just above small craft criteria during this time as well. Elements relax considerably with a return flow late in the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . SHK UPDATE . VAO NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . MCK MARINE . MCK/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi37 min 58°F9 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi59 min W 14 G 18 60°F 56°F1013 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi27 min 57°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi59 min SSW 12 G 21 57°F 55°F1014.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi55 min 64°F 56°F1012.3 hPa
WLON7 28 mi55 min 62°F 56°F1013.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi27 min WSW 31 G 39 69°F 68°F1013.2 hPa63°F
41119 29 mi77 min 55°F5 ft
SSBN7 29 mi45 min 3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi59 min W 21 G 27 60°F 60°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi72 minWSW 12 G 225.00 miOvercast with Haze61°F56°F86%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:50 AM EST     4.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:02 PM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.84.54.74.33.52.51.40.60.20.51.22.233.743.73.12.21.20.3-0.100.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:11 AM EST     4.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:27 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:23 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.34.14.44.33.62.71.70.80.30.30.91.72.63.33.73.73.22.41.50.6-0-0.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.