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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 337 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Through 7 pm..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft, then 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ200 337 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Westerly winds turn northerly tonight as chilly air spills into the region. High pressure moves across the area through Wednesday, after which return flow develops. A front will drop into the area this weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 281806 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 106 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold Canadian high pressure building in will bring well below average temperatures through mid week with freezing temperatures expected tonight. The high will push offshore later in the week with a return to milder temperatures and increased rain chances as another upper disturbance impacts the area.

UPDATE
Cloud cover is exiting as expected with temperatures increasing beneath sunny skies, although the shallow sun angle and strong subsidence inversion will limit afternoon maxes. Still expecting highs to reach the low 50s, with some 54-56F possible along and west of I-95.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Our coldest normal highs area-wide run roughly 54-57 degrees. This occurs around mid January, the middle of meteorological winter before they start rising again as January heads into February.

And that's where today's highs will wind up.

Reason: Low level cold advection behind yesterday's cold front paired with sunshine dimmed by extensive/thick cirrus being dragged across the area from the SW by a screaming 180kt jet at 250 mb. This jet streak exits the coast as the day wears on and the cirrus shield will exit with it. How quickly this occurs will modify our temps but only slightly, likely a degree or two. Heading into tonight with the sky clearing and wind fields lightening the stage is set for a radiational cooling night. The question is how idealized are the conditions. Sure enough forecast soundings show one of the calling cards of a rad night with a deep isothermal layer that extends up to about 8kft. What they do not show however are light/calm winds through any depth through this layer, nor the classic wintertime skin layer of even colder temperatures. Sometimes early season cold pushes like this are held back from the numbers- busting lows because of soil temperatures and this may very well be the case tonight. Didn't stray too much from the previous forecast and have not incorporated some of the lower end of some probabilistic guidance (though I would have had this been say, January). Even so, confidence certainly high enough to upgrade Freeze Watch to a Warning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Sprawling surface high will be the dominant feature Wed and Thu while the 5h trough overhead Wed exits to the east leaving flat flow for Thu. Cold start Wed morning and weak nature of developing warm advection in the afternoon will keep highs around 10 degrees below climo. Despite full sun, temperatures breaking 50 degrees will be a tall order and many areas end up in the upper 40s. Minimal air mass modification as the center of the high shifts east Wed night, but the increase in low level moisture and potentially some high cloud will lead to somewhat warmer lows Wed night compared to Tue night.
However the region will remain well below climo.

Center of the high moves farther offshore Thu with coastal trough gradually developing during the day. Temperatures warm considerably from Wed with most areas ending up a few degrees below climo on Thu.
Clouds will start increasing along the coast then spread inland as the trough takes shape late Thu and Thu night. Weak isentropic lift may generate some light rain along the immediate coast around daybreak Fri, but currently seems a low probability and most likely region remains dry. Lows end up near to slightly above climo due to cloud cover and the developing warm advection.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
End of this week and the start of the next look unsettled as the southern stream becomes active. A little more clarity compared to last night with respect to surface features and the overall mid- level pattern. Shortwave emerging from the Southwest tracks through the TN Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Fri into Fri night. Clouds and isentropic rain may spread over the forecast area, but the overall impact of the system will be limited.

Unsettled conditions continue through the weekend with a front, associated with the Fri system, stalled in the region. A series of waves develop along the front and move east-northeast late Saturday night through Sun night. Rain begins with enhanced isentropic lift Sat night into Sun then becomes more dynamic/convective as a series of waves move across the area. At this time the front is pushed north and west, putting the region in the warm sector. Inland areas may remain within the isentropic shield with rainfall enhanced by elevated convection.
Highly amplified trough diving south across the Plains kicks the stalled front offshore late Mon with dry air spreading in from the southwest and west as the period ends. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs running close to 10 degrees above and lows around 15 degrees above.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR expected through the TAF period with the only concern being a northerly wind shift arriving this evening with a dry cold frontal passage. Abnormally cold and very dry air will arrive behind this front. Although the dry dewpoints should preclude much in the way of icing on aircraft, local moisture sources may support frost formation.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues until Friday, when showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions through the weekend.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Cold air pours into the area today into tonight keeping wind out of the NW today and then N tonight due to the large high building in from the west. Wind direction alignment in the vertical is poor due to the signature backing with height in a cold advection regime. This probably keeps momentum transfer capped at 925mb supporting gusts of about 20kt and so no headlines expected. Seas 2-3 ft in a choppy 5 second (and occasionally shorter) wind wave.

Wednesday through Saturday: Surface high and relaxed gradient Wed and Thu will keep winds under 10 kt with direction varying. The high shifts east Thu night with coastal trough developing by Fri. Trough lifts northwest during Fri with southerly winds developing and then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late Fri into Sat morning. Southerly winds continue Sat, but gradient weakens with speeds dropping to 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft Wed through Thu night build to 3 to 5 ft Fri and Fri night in response to increasing southerly winds. Seas start to subside on Sat, but drop is slow with 3 to 4 ft continuing though the afternoon. An easterly swell will be present all week with a wind wave from the north through Thu becoming southerly on Fri.

CLIMATE
Some record lows tonight/Wednesday morning could be in trouble.
Here are they are:

ILM: 24 set in 1996 FLO: 23 set in 2002 CRE: 26 set in 1955 LBT: 19 set in 1938

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ106>108-110.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Fear
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Tue -- 01:32 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 AM EST     5.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:16 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:18 PM EST     4.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

Fort Caswell
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Tue -- 01:55 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:39 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:39 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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