Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:38PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 10:55 AM EDT (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 953 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 953 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will slide farther off the southeast coast through mid week, bringing southwest winds to the local waters as a frontal boundary remains north of the area. A cold front crosses the area late Thursday, bringing northwest winds into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 071359 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. An weak disturbance aloft may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to the region this afternoon. A cold front arrives late Thursday with a return of seasonable weather for the end of the weak. Developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week.

UPDATE. Low-level dry air will still be a challenge for widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon and we should see only isolated T-storms. Areas of SC should see the first initiation between 2pm-3pm barring the effect of cirrus currently in place. Updated PoPs to reflect this thinking; no other changes necessary. Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Downtown Wilmington for this high tide and this evening's higher high tide.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered just off the FL/GA coast with a stalled frontal boundary just off to the N. The front is expected to stay N of the area today, allowing for temps to remain above normal . highs in the low/mid 80s inland with 70s right at the coast. Despite the front staying off to the N, small perturbations in the WNW flow aloft will allow for the development of shras/tstms this aftn/evening. Still capped PoPs in the 20-30% range chance due to plenty of dry air in mid levels limiting coverage. Any tstms that do form have the potential to be strong, due to very steep low-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt deep layer shear. Note that the area is now in a General thunder risk area from SPC, as the Slight severe risk area is confined to areas well N of the local area. Any rain dissipates overnight, with temps only bottoming out in the low/mid 60s.

Not much change in the overall pattern into Wed. Like today, SPC has the local area in just a General thunder risk area, as the better chance for severe wx will remain off to the N. In fact, a lot of guidance keeps the area dry so have capped PoPs at 20%. Temps Wed a bit warmer than today, with highs in the mid/upr 80s inland.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Weak surface high and flat flow aloft Wed night into Thu will lead to temps well above normal, but with limited rainfall chances. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the abundance of mid-level dry air and lack of strong forcing points to minimal coverage if convection develops. Cold front is pushed into the area late Thu or Thu night by northern stream 5h trough with cold advection setting up Thu night. Arrival of cold air is too late to affect highs Thu, which will approach 90 inland. Even lows Thu night end up above climo, though with temps falling overnight as cold air starts moving into the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Cold front well offshore Fri morning will end up stalling well south of the area late in the week as it becomes parallel to the flow aloft. Surface high building in from the northwest Fri, moves overhead Sat then off the coast early next week. This will set up a period of return flow, ahead of a southern stream shortwave emerging from the Southwest. The shortwave moves across the Lower MS valley Sat night into Sun, increasing rainfall chances early next week. Despite increasing clouds Sun and Mon temperatures will run well above climo, after running well below climo Fri through Sat.

- Rainfall chances increase Sun and linger into Mon.

- Temperatures well below climo Fri through Sat.

- Warm advection begins Sat night and continues through Mon pushing temperatures well above climo.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A couple of showers offshore will not affect the coastal terminals. Light southwest flow, with some speed shear during climb out. Isolated convection is expected this afternoon. No fog expected tonight, with continued speed shear.

Extended Outlook . Flight restrictions lift mid-week, and look clear through at least Thursday.

MARINE. SW flow continues today into Wed with sfc high pressure stationed offshore and a frontal boundary off to the N. Expect 10-20 kt winds, with an occasional gust up to 25 kt possible. Seas 3-5 ft, which includes a 1-2 ft 12 second Easterly swell component.

Increasing southwest flow Wed night and Thu will become offshore Thu night following the passage of a cold front. Ahead of the front winds will be 15 to 20 kt, decreasing to around 15 kt late Thu night and Fri. Northwest winds continue into Fri night, but drop under 15 kt, before winds slowly veer to northeast early Sat. Period of northeast flow is short-lived as high pressure moves off the coast and east winds under 10 kt develop. Seas 3 to 4 ft Wed night increase to 3 to 5 ft late Thu and Thu night with southwest wind wave being dominant. Offshore flow drops seas to 2 to 3 ft for Fri with light winds keeping seas 2 to 3 ft Sat. Seas Fri and Sat will be a mix of a southerly swell and a northerly wind wave.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . 21 NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . III LONG TERM . III AVIATION . 43 MARINE . III/MAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi55 min 64°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi47 min W 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 63°F1016.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi45 min 63°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi47 min W 9.7 G 14 66°F 64°F1016.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi55 min WSW 7 G 12 69°F 62°F1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
WLON7 28 mi55 min 70°F 65°F1016.4 hPa (+0.0)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi35 min WSW 21 G 27 71°F 71°F1016.9 hPa65°F
41119 29 mi35 min 64°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi47 min W 14 G 19 65°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi60 minW 910.00 miFair69°F59°F72%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE5E6E5E8E7SE7E6S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W11
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2 days agoE4E5E3S7S5S5SE4SE4SE4CalmCalmE3E4E4E4E3E4NE3NE4NE3N3NE5E4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:58 PM EDT     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.5-0.60.21.534.35.15.24.73.62.20.8-0.3-0.7-0.212.5455.65.44.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.2-0.6-0.212.43.74.654.73.92.61.20.1-0.6-0.50.51.93.34.55.25.34.73.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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