Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albany, OK
May 20, 2024 7:09 AM CDT (12:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:54 PM Moonset 3:28 AM |
FXUS64 KOUN 201108 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 608 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Thunderstorm activity should exit the eastern portions of our forecast area between 4 am and 6 am, but with satellite/radar trends continuing to develop mid-level cloud/shower enhancements just east of I-35, will continue some low pops over Hughes down into Atoka counties for an hour or so past sunrise. No severe weather will be expected by that time. Thereafter, 850-700mb jet streak will shift to our east and we should see modest height rises through the day. Forecast will not include any thunderstorm chances, at least greater than 10 percent, but with at least upper 60 dewpoints and broad lower level convergence east and southeast of northwest Oklahoma surface low, cannot rule out a stray storm this afternoon across northern Oklahoma. Something we will monitor and hopefully CAMs can give us a headsup on the potential.
Mild night again tonight with winds staying up and mid to upper 60 dewpoints not going anywhere, except maybe far northwest/west central Oklahoma near the dryline.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Models continue to trend slower with the cold front, which is now progd to arrive on Wednesday. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, veering flow will allow a dryline to mix eastward and orient itself from western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, northeastward through central/north-central Oklahoma. This dryline will be the focus for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong instability and shear yielding all hazards. Additional severe storms will be possible as the mentioned cold front enters the region Tuesday night and continues slowly southward through Wednesday morning. This front is forecast to stall near northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on Wednesday, where additional severe storms and heavy rain will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday. As broad upper trough approaches during the day Thursday, the stalled front is forecast to retreat northward and keep the chances for severe weather going, at least across the eastern-half Oklahoma.
Models begin to diverge on timing/latitude of shortwave ejections and resulting positions of dryline/frontal boundaries, so overall confidence is low on exact location and timing of severe weather through the weekend. Currently, models depict the best chances for daily severe weather east of Interstate-35 where deeper moisture and weaker cap will be in play. However, expected amount of moisture/instability and at least moderately strong southwest flow over a larger area could result in greater coverage in severe weather potential next weekend than currently forecast by models.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
MVFR cigs will be included near KWWR through the morning, with cigs occasionally just above MVFR expected over toward KPNC down toward KSWO and KOKC. There is a chance for MVFR at these locations after some heating takes place this morning, but confidence not high enough to mention in initial forecast. Winds will become more southerly and increase toward and after 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 90 73 92 65 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 98 72 96 62 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 94 74 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 94 65 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 88 72 92 60 / 0 0 10 40 Durant OK 87 72 88 73 / 20 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 608 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Thunderstorm activity should exit the eastern portions of our forecast area between 4 am and 6 am, but with satellite/radar trends continuing to develop mid-level cloud/shower enhancements just east of I-35, will continue some low pops over Hughes down into Atoka counties for an hour or so past sunrise. No severe weather will be expected by that time. Thereafter, 850-700mb jet streak will shift to our east and we should see modest height rises through the day. Forecast will not include any thunderstorm chances, at least greater than 10 percent, but with at least upper 60 dewpoints and broad lower level convergence east and southeast of northwest Oklahoma surface low, cannot rule out a stray storm this afternoon across northern Oklahoma. Something we will monitor and hopefully CAMs can give us a headsup on the potential.
Mild night again tonight with winds staying up and mid to upper 60 dewpoints not going anywhere, except maybe far northwest/west central Oklahoma near the dryline.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Models continue to trend slower with the cold front, which is now progd to arrive on Wednesday. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, veering flow will allow a dryline to mix eastward and orient itself from western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, northeastward through central/north-central Oklahoma. This dryline will be the focus for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong instability and shear yielding all hazards. Additional severe storms will be possible as the mentioned cold front enters the region Tuesday night and continues slowly southward through Wednesday morning. This front is forecast to stall near northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on Wednesday, where additional severe storms and heavy rain will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday. As broad upper trough approaches during the day Thursday, the stalled front is forecast to retreat northward and keep the chances for severe weather going, at least across the eastern-half Oklahoma.
Models begin to diverge on timing/latitude of shortwave ejections and resulting positions of dryline/frontal boundaries, so overall confidence is low on exact location and timing of severe weather through the weekend. Currently, models depict the best chances for daily severe weather east of Interstate-35 where deeper moisture and weaker cap will be in play. However, expected amount of moisture/instability and at least moderately strong southwest flow over a larger area could result in greater coverage in severe weather potential next weekend than currently forecast by models.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
MVFR cigs will be included near KWWR through the morning, with cigs occasionally just above MVFR expected over toward KPNC down toward KSWO and KOKC. There is a chance for MVFR at these locations after some heating takes place this morning, but confidence not high enough to mention in initial forecast. Winds will become more southerly and increase toward and after 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 90 73 92 65 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 98 72 96 62 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 94 74 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 94 65 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 88 72 92 60 / 0 0 10 40 Durant OK 87 72 88 73 / 20 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDUA DURANT RGNL EAKER FIELD,OK | 22 sm | 14 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 64°F | 78% | 29.90 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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