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FXUS64 KOUN 090431 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1031 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Sfc low and cold front will continue to move across the area the rest of this afternoon and tonight. Winds will shift to the NW/N with cooler air moving in behind the front. Models show that a shortwave in the base of the upper trough will move across the southern Plains tonight and Saturday.

Previous forecasts had a low chance for a few showers/storms in far SE portions of the fa this evening. Right now, can not completely rule out a shower or storm in the far SE but chances are very low with any activity expected to be east of the fa so there currently is no mention in the fa.

There is a change to the forecast with some low precipitation chances now in NW/W parts of the fa late tonight into Saturday morning. With the shortwave approaching/moving across the area and some associated mid level moisture, there is a low chance (20-30%)
for light precipitation. Light rain will be the initial precip type but as colder air moves in and the column cools, the rain could mix with and/or change over to light snow early Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected so no major impacts are currently anticipated but a some locations in NW and west central OK could see some snowflakes before the precipitation ends later Saturday morning.

Otherwise, breezy/gusty north winds are expected across the area tomorrow with temperatures around normal for this time of year. Near elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in western parts of the fa Saturday afternoon due to the breezy/gusty winds.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Winds are expected to shift towards the south on Sunday with around average highs (50s) once again. A slight warm up is expected Monday/Tuesday with above average highs (50s/60s) but not as far above average as temperatures were the last few days.

The next chance for precipitation will be towards the middle to end of next week. Models show a closed low that develops over the SW U.S. and slowly moves towards the region before finally moving into the Plains as a trough which looks like it will happen towards the end of next week. This system will bring a chance for precipitation to at least parts of the area for several days next week, starting on Wednesday, although this could change due to differences in timing of the upper system. Right now, it looks like temperatures will remain warm enough for the most part for the majority of the precipitation to be rain but obviously that could change over the coming days so something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 952 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions are expected until 100600. North to Northwest wind will become gusty Saturday morning and last throughout the day, diminishing during the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 38 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 35 52 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 38 57 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 30 50 22 54 / 20 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 50 25 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 44 61 32 53 / 10 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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