Desert Center, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

June 19, 2024 10:53 PM PDT (05:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 6:09 PM   Moonset 3:18 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 200541 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1041 PM MST Wed Jun 19 2024

UPDATE
Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Another day of quiet weather and near normal temperatures today before we get our first taste of monsoonal moisture and strong high pressure building back over the region tomorrow. An Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect tomorrow for portions of South Central Arizona. On Thursday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a line east of Phoenix extending south southeast through central Pinal County and down to Tucson. Strong, gusty outflow winds are anticipated with the thunderstorms that develop tomorrow, and with this there will be the potential for blowing dust in the eastern deserts. Daily chances for mainly mountain and some isolated lower desert thunderstorms will exist Friday and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Troughing still dominates much of the Western US, with 500 mb heights over the region ranging from 583-587 dam according to RAP analysis as of late this morning. As a result, temperatures across the lower deserts will once again hover near normal in the 100-107 degree range this afternoon. However, these quiet conditions and near normal temperatures will be very short lived. Overnight tonight, some large-scale flow features are expected to set up in a way that will allow moisture to surge into southeastern AZ.

A broad area of abundant low-level moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Alberto moves westward into central Mexico tonight, high pressure currently centered over the East-Central US elongates westward, and a trough digs south along the California Coast. Strong easterly winds along the northern periphery of the tropical system will begin to wrap around the anticyclone to the north, move over southeastern AZ, and are also enhanced by height falls to the west thanks to the trough along the California coast. ECMWF EFIs associated with the moist east southeasterly flow tomorrow morning and Thursday night exceed 0.9, indicating a significant signal.
These strong ESE gradient winds will diminish during the day, but are expected to pick back up Thursday night. Wind gusts in Southern Gila County during this time are expected to peak between 40-50 mph (HRRR 50th percentile gusts are at or above 40 mph through much of tomorrow morning and Thursday night.) As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the populated high terrain areas of Southern Gila County tomorrow morning through Friday morning.

Tomorrow afternoon, several weather hazards are expected to impact South-Central AZ. Localized areas of Excessive heat will develop as ensemble mean H5 heights increase to around 591 dam along our eastern CWA Forecast highs range from 110 to 114 across the Phoenix Metro Area, and an Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect for much of Maricopa and Northern Pinal Counties from 10 AM - 8 PM MST. In addition to the excessive heat, thunderstorms will begin to initiate during the afternoon along a line connecting Tucson, through central Pinal County, to just east of Scottsdale. This is because a pseudo dryline sets up here, as strong, moisture-laden southeast flow (as discussed previously) meets dry, southwest flow at the mid levels overhead. A strong gradient in SBCAPE is apparent early tomorrow afternoon, with HRRR mean values peaking in excess of 1000 J/kg to the east of the aforementioned line, and dropping off to near zero as you travel west towards Buckeye. The main threats associated with these storms will be gusty outflow winds and the potential for blowing dust, with HRRR probabilities of 35+ mph winds between 50- 70% and probabilities for 58+ mph winds around 10-30% centered over eastern Pinal County. Steering flow will be south southwesterly tomorrow, so storms will move away from the Phoenix Metro Area after forming, and the associated outflows will not be quite as strong as they would be otherwise. Rainfall accumulations will be light, if any, over the lower deserts, however, some very localized areas (particularly over the high terrain to the east) will have the potential to see up to 0.5".

Thunderstorm chances continue Friday and through the weekend. The trough positioned along the California Coast will begin to recede to north and progress eastward on Friday, with a jet streak downstream of the base of this trough. The upper level divergence over AZ from this jet streak should create a favorable synoptic setup for the development of thunderstorms, particularly over the high terrain of South-Central AZ. Thunderstorm chances range from 40-60% over Southern Gila County on Friday, and have increased up to 20-40% over portions of the eastern lower deserts. With LREF mean dCAPE values still reaching up to 2000 J/kg on Friday, strong, gusty outflow winds will likely be a concern for Friday as well. With a south southwesterly steering flow continuing on Friday, Phoenix will not see much activity unless decent convection over the higher terrain of southern Maricopa and southwest Pinal County, and/or colliding outflows from convection from the east and southeast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Moisture levels should continue to improve into Saturday as ensemble mean PWATs increase to between 1.6-1.9" over much of southwest and south-central Arizona. However, the upper level ridge will also be strengthening and shifting right over the region this weekend causing increasing subsidence. Forecast confidence this weekend is fairly low due to placement of the ridge. We will most likely have afternoon higher terrain convection over the weekend, but it may struggle to survive into the lower deserts. That doesn't mean we can't have a very good and fairly widespread thunderstorm day with the set-up like we are expecting this weekend, but it would take considerable colliding outflows. For now, the NBM shows 10-20% PoPs this weekend over La Paz and Yuma Counties, 20-30% PoPs over Maricopa County, and 30-45% PoPs over the eastern Arizona high terrain. Any convection in this higher PWAT environment this weekend will have the potential of bringing localized heavy rainfall.

Hotter temperatures will also spread westward Friday into the weekend with highs topping 110 degrees across much of the southeast California lower deserts to near 110 degrees across southwest and south-central Arizona. The increased moisture will also exacerbate the heat with temperatures feeling even hotter given the increased humidities and keeping overnight lows well above normal. In fact, overnight lows near 90 degrees in the Phoenix area will be possible as early as Thursday night before lows increase areawide by Saturday night with readings mostly staying in the low to mid 80s or higher. The temperature forecast for this weekend is of lower confidence compared to usual due to the potential convection and cloud cover. By early next week, ensemble guidance favors some strengthening of the sub-tropical high with H5 heights likely rising to between 593-596dm. Moisture levels will likely depend on the position of the high center with some indications of the center shifting a bit more to the south toward Mexico which may bring some drier air in from the southwest. For now, the NBM favors this drying as it lowers PoPs from west to east early next week. If guidance is correct and our heights increase next week, we are nearly certain to fall under another round of excessive heat. NBM forecast highs currently inch toward the 115 degree mark by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but then show signs of backing off later next week as the ridge is likely to start to weaken.

AVIATION
Updated at 0540Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Winds will favor diurnal tendencies through the overnight period before S to SE winds increase Thursday morning starting around 15-16Z with gusts to around 20 kts. Winds are expected to then veer toward the southwest in the afternoon with sustained speeds around 10-12 kts and perhaps a few gusts into the teens.
Uncertainty increases going into the late afternoon and early evening timeframe tomorrow as thunderstorms are expected to develop to the east of the terminals. As of now, thunderstorm chances will be greatest east of the metro area tomorrow with the greater threat for the terminals being gusty outflow winds moving through Phoenix. The latest HRRR indicates around a 40-70% chance for outflow winds in excess of 30 kts and about a 10-20% chance in excess of 50 kts. Timing and magnitude of outflow winds remain quite uncertain, but the most favored direction is expected to be from the east. SKC conditions will persist through much of the period before FEW-SCT decks around 12 kft develop tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will predominantly favor the west at KIPL with extended periods of light and variable winds expected tomorrow morning and afternoon. At KBLH, winds will favor the S to SW with some afternoon breeziness. SKC conditions will persist.

FIRE WEATHER
Near normal temperatures today will warm back into an above normal category as the first signs of monsoon flow and moisture return affect eastern districts late this week through early next week. Widespread dry conditions will prevail today with minimum afternoon humidity levels 10-15% following poor to fair overnight recovery of 15-45%. Moisture will surge into eastern districts Thursday morning allowing minimum RH to only fall around 25% with fair to good overnight recovery of 40-75%. The moisture surge will be accompanied by unusually strong easterly winds Thursday morning through early afternoon with gusts of 35-45 mph possible.
Wind speeds will gradually weaken into the weekend with east southeasterly winds persisting through Saturday. With the moisture increase, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over higher terrain areas of eastern districts and potentially into portions of the lower deserts. Lightning with fairly low wetting rain chances combined with erratic, gusty outflow winds may be significant concerns for eastern districts this weekend despite the higher RHs. Western districts should see slightly better moisture over the weekend, but CWR will remain below 5%. High pressure is then expected to strengthen over the region by early next week leading to even hotter temperatures along with slightly drier conditions.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ534-537>555-559.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for AZZ560- 562.

CA...None.




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