Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:56PM Friday July 19, 2019 3:50 PM PDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 8:12AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 192045
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
145 pm mst Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will persist through the weekend
with only a limited chance of an isolated shower and thunderstorm
across high terrain areas. Moisture will increase during the first
part of next week providing better chances of thunderstorms and
strong outflow winds. Isolated storms may continue into the middle
of next week, but will mostly favor mountainous areas of the region.

Discussion
Afternoon objective analysis depicts an elongated ridge axis
extending from eastern arizona through the southern plains and se
conus. Within the western periphery of this anti-cyclone, a
convectively enhanced vorticity center was lifting through western
arizona bringing a slug of midtropospheric moisture northward in the
form of extensive cloud cover (and sprinkles earlier in the day).

However, sfc-h7 layer moisture profiles are quite anemic with 12z
kpsr sounding data only sampling 5-7 g kg; and wind trajectories
within this boundary layer not supporting any further moistening. As
a result, all model guidance indicates minimal convective activity
across the region this afternoon and evening.

The subtropical high will remain fairly elongated and bisect the
forecast area the next couple days trapping better quality deep
moisture into northern mexico. There's convincing evidence that more
active convection through sonora Saturday afternoon will aid in a
shallow gulf surge into Sunday morning, although better mixed 10
g kg moisture will likely only edge into southern arizona by Sunday
afternoon. Synoptically, Sunday will likely be somewhat of a
transition day as the h5 high center intensifies and reforms over
the four corners area. This configuration should force deeper and
more unidirectional SE flow, and allow any outflow boundaries to
more readily transport moisture into central arizona. Actual
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will probably be relegated to far se
arizona though model output has been consistent in pushing a notable
ridge of higher theta-e air northwestward Sunday night.

By Monday afternoon, low level mixing ratios of around 10 g kg along
with an upslope component and potentially some support from a
backdoor front will support storm development across the high
terrain of eastern az. Model output still suggests well organized
convective complexes and robust outflows descending towards lower
elevations. Limiting factors may include more extensive daytime
cloud cover hindering insolation and full instability, as well as
better moisture only mixed to around 700mb and notable inhibition to
overcome at lower elevations. Nevertheless, forecast soundings
strongly resemble those of deep outflows capable of partially
eliminating inhibition; and would expect more classic colliding
boundaries, isolated to scattered low elevation storms resulting in
strong winds and potentially widespread blowing dust.

The moisture tap out of northern mexico looks to continue through at
least Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Obviously if convection
is more expansive Monday evening, the atmosphere may be overturned
and contaminated Tuesday precluding a more active day. Regardless,
it seems fairly likely there will be at least one additional
convectively active day beyond Monday with lingering deep moisture
and favorable flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates and steering flow may
become rather weak pointing toward more of a marginal heavy rain and
flood threat. Temperatures for the first half of next week should
fall a bit closer to normal highs, but overnight lows may be
slightly above normal due to the likelihood of nocturnal debris
clouds. There is fairly low forecast confidence for late next week
as models differ somewhat in moisture availability, however the
general trend among operational and ensemble members is towards
another southward progression of the subtropical high into central
arizona. This may very well cause increased subsidence and drying
through the column sequestering thunderstorms back into higher
terrain areas.

Aviation Updated at 1745 utc
south-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
there are no major aviation weather concerns through the rest of
today and into Saturday. The winds will follow typical diurnal
trends with the westerly shift currently taking place now. Winds
will gust upwards of 20 kts this afternoon through sunset. The
easterly wind shift will most likely occur late in the TAF period
around 20 12z. Fortunately, the chance for outflows impacting the
terminal area is very low with thunderstorms remaining well off in
the distance. Otherwise, intermittent cloud cover will pass
through but with ceilings AOA 12k feet.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
winds will be the primary aviation concern this afternoon and
evening with gusts approaching 30 kts for all locations. Wind
directions will favor a more southerly direction along the
colorado river with a westerly direction inland, including kipl.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
temperatures will remain seasonably hot with moisture increasing
over all districts during the first part of the week. This will
favor more numerous thunderstorms with attendant outflow boundaries
flowing down into lower elevations. Wetting rains will be most
likely in the eastern districts. Monday may be particularly active
with stronger storms and very gusty winds. The increased moisture
will allow afternoon humidity levels remains at or above 20%
following good overnight recovery. Winds will typically still have
the usual daytime upslope gusts, and the more prevalent
thunderstorms will likely create periods with stronger outflow
boundaries and erratic wind shifts. Drier air may move into the
region during the latter half of the week reducing thunderstorm
chances and coverage.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Mo kuhlman
aviation... Deems rogers
fire weather... Deems mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 99 mi53 min 72°F2 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi59 minSE 610.00 miFair108°F36°F8%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE73SE73NW8N12
G19
NW15NW17N18
G24
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NW8NW7NW8N8CalmW4NW5NW9NW456S55SE6
1 day ago334CalmNW11NW14
G21
N14NW10NW10
G19
NW6CalmCalmCalmSW4W3N3CalmNW5SE54S5--S6--
2 days agoS4W10W10NW11N13N15
G22
N13N13
G21
NW14N14N13W4W6SE6E3CalmSE4SE8SE13
G18
SE12SE5E6CalmSE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.