Marine Weather and Tides
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 6:22AM||Sunset 5:33PM||Thursday February 20, 2020 9:01 AM PST (17:01 UTC)||Moonrise 5:44AM||Moonset 3:56PM||Illumination 10%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 201214 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 514 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020
UPDATE. Updated Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions .
SYNOPSIS. Continued dry conditions and well above normal temperatures are forecast into Friday with mostly clear skies today turning cloudy on Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. This system will likely bring light to moderate rain across much of the region Friday night and Saturday morning with lingering chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will fall back to near normal readings before recovering slightly into early next week.
DISCUSSION. Latest plot data showed dry westerly flow across the area with very little height changes; heights across the lower deserts were around 574dm resulting in above normal high temperatures over the deserts. IR imagery showed clear skies area wide. As we move through the day today, the flat flow will begin to amplify as ridging develops across the southwest downstream from an advancing Pacific upper low. As such we will see slight warming today pushing the warmer deserts into the lower 80s: Phoenix should see a high today around 81 degrees which would be 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
On Friday, the upper ridge will shift off to the east, with the axis moving into central New Mexico as a rather strong upper closed low approaches the southern California coast. During the day the low will start to tap into subtropical moisture and will spread it into southeast Arizona and northwest Mexico mainly in the form of increasing clouds. High temps will remain above seasonal normals with the central deserts still in the upper 70s despite the partly cloudy skies.
Over the past several days, model guidance has shown trends of various operational and ensemble suites becoming more and more aligned and on board with the timing and track of the approaching low, which will likely bring widespread precipitation to the area starting later Friday night and continuing through the day on Saturday. This appears to be a rather progressive upper low which will quickly exit off to the east Saturday night into Sunday, but not before bringing 0.5 to 1 inch or more of rain to much of southwest and south central Arizona. Another trend has been steadily increasing POPs from pretty much all guidance sources including ECMWF, GEFS and NAEFS ensembles, as well as MOS guidance and GEFS plumes data. We have raised POPs again with this package, with scattered to numerous showers expected from southeast California east through the central deserts, and categorical rains over south- central Arizona especially higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. Latest GEFS plumes now has the ensemble mean running about 0.6 inches for storm total rain in Phoenix, with European ensemble mean near 0.9 inches. GEFS plumes matches nicely with latest WPC QPE output for the central deserts. One signal that has been strong for the past few days in the presence of an atmospheric river that will approach from the southwest Friday afternoon and move into southeast and south central Arizona Friday night and through Saturday morning. The IVT forecast from the GFS is now very similar to that forecast from the GEFS and has been slowly increasing and spreading west with time. PWAT forecast by the guidance is over 1 inch over the lower deserts, and this is reasonable given the IVT plume headed into the area. As a nod to the potential for heavy rains Saturday the latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a large area of marginal across southcentral and southeast Arizona for the period 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday. Storm total rains now appear to be in the 0.4-0.75 inch ballpark across the central deserts and up to or in excess of 1 inch over high terrain east of Phoenix. As the low moves into the area Saturday we can expect rain/rain showers to be the dominant weather but cannot rule out a few thunderstorms across much of the lower deserts including the Phoenix area. MLCAPE will be modest but still could exceed 150 j/kg. Any storms that form should not be overly strong and should mainly serve to enhance rain totals.
During the day on Saturday as the upper low moves inland into far southeast California there will be a bit of a dry slow moving into the deserts southwest of Phoenix and POPs will start to fall off as we move into far southeast California and far southwest Arizona. Still, we expect scattered to numerous showers to persist across areas east of Phoenix through most of the night on Saturday night.
The low will exit quickly to the east Sunday as strong, subsident northwest flow aloft spreads across the deserts behind the exiting low bringing sunny skies to most of the deserts. High temperatures will fall sharply Saturday behind the associated cold front with cooler central deserts lowering into the upper 60s, and little change is expected Sunday. Actually, Phoenix may even drop another degree or two with a forecast of just 67 Sunday compared to 69 Saturday.
For the latter portion of the forecast period - Monday through Wednesday - ensemble guidance is generally in agreement with the idea that a very broad upper trof will develop over the interior CONUS while upper ridging sets up along the west coast. This brings dry northwest flow to the desert southwest and Arizona, but given the proximity of the large trof, high temperatures only climb a handful of degrees with the lower central deserts generally staying in the lower 70s each day. Ensemble members from the NAEFS, CMC and GEFS are in pretty good agreement for the most part although there are some members that disagree. Feel confident that that basic idea is correct with dry and near normal high temperatures to dominate each day.
AVIATION. Updated at 1205Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation impacts through at least Friday morning. Light winds mostly aob 6 kts will mostly follow diurnal tendencies through early Friday morning with a slight increase in winds for the Phoenix area by 12Z Friday. Wind directions in the Phoenix area late this afternoon are of lower confidence with winds potentially varying between the northwest and northeast. Skies will start off clear with increasing high clouds this evening into early Friday.
FIRE WEATHER. Saturday through Wednesday: A fast moving but wet weather system will bring widespread rain over much of the area, especially across south-central and eastern Arizona. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Showers will diminish Saturday night with drier air working into the region on Sunday. Much cooler conditions are expected over the weekend associated with the passing system, as highs fall into the upper 60s to low 70s over the cooler central deserts. Gradual warming is expected to take place next week with temperatures rising to above normal readings starting Monday. Winds will become breezy to possibly windy at times on Saturday favoring the west starting in the afternoon. Winds become light across the districts Sunday but periodic breeziness returns Monday favoring the north.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . CB AVIATION . Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA||27 mi||70 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||57°F||30°F||36%||1020.4 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTRM
Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||W||N||S||SE||SE||SE||E||S||W||W||NW||N||N||N||NW||Calm||N||NW||N||Calm||N||Calm|
|2 days ago||N||W||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||N||NW||N||NW||N||N||N||N||Calm||NW||NW||NW||Calm|
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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