Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

SYNOPSIS
Dry and generally tranquil conditions will persist over the next few days with temperatures running near to slightly above seasonal values. A dry weather system will move off the Eastern Pacific later this week, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions along with a cooldown with temperatures falling below seasonal normals into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
500mb RAP analysis reveals weak quasi-zonal flow stretched out across much of the Great Basin, resulting in a fairly quiet pattern for the region. With the expectation that this pattern will not vary much over the next few days, very little day-to-day changes will take place at least through the middle of the week with dry conditions prevailing and lower desert highs ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Global models show a very weak disturbance moving through the western CONUS through the middle of the week, but the only noticeable impact with this would be the presence of breezy to locally windy conditions in the typical spots of Western Imperial County.

Ensembles have come into a bit more agreement regarding the stronger area of low pressure later this week compared to 24 hours ago. Some subtle differences remain, mainly in the timing, exact track, and amplification, but it appears that the models have honed in on an evolution that takes the center of this system across the Southern Great Basin by Sunday. Though this system appears to be dry, translating to essentially zero rain chances, it will not be without its noticeable impacts on regional conditions. Associated height anomalies approaching 1.5-2 standard deviations below normal vs. climatology will translate to a decent cooling trend heading into this weekend. Even though NBM MaxT spread remains around five degrees during the weekend timeframe, this does not degrade the idea that regionwide cooling temperatures are likely, with many areas potentially falling 5-10 degrees below normal for late April. The other associated impact will be an increase in winds during much the weekend, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours, thanks to an enhancement of the thermal and pressure gradients. The magnitude of the winds will be largely dependent on the track of the system, but early indication are that gusts upwards of 25-35 mph may be common, with advisory level gusts >=40 mph possible for the usually windy spots of Southeast California and the Arizona high terrain. We are several days from this low moving onshore so forecast detail could certainly change, but if trends continue in the direction they are, wind products may be needed later this week. Regardless of if winds do reach advisory thresholds, the relatively warm and dry airmass in place, combined with the enhanced winds, will result in periods of elevated, to potentially critical fire weather conditions at times.

AVIATION
Updated at 0540Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with overall speeds aob 10 kts. There will likely be periods of light variability to even calm conditions, especially during the diurnal transition. Southerly winds are expected for a few hours mid to late morning Wednesday at the Phoenix terminals before veering toward a W/SW component. Breeziness will pick up around the region heading into tomorrow afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts possible at times. Higher gusts upwards of 25-30 kts will be possible at KIPL Wednesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through much of the remainder of the workweek, with slightly above normal temperatures. MinRH values each day will bottom out near 10% areawide with poor to fair overnight recoveries. Fairly light and diurnally driven winds are expected through at least Thursday, with some afternoon upslope breeziness. Winds are likely to increase by the end of the week into this weekend as an upper level low pressure system moves into the western United States.
This may lead to locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly for the high terrain east of Phoenix during the weekend, though temperatures will cool to slightly below normal.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.