Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:13PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:10 PM PDT (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:03PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 150000
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
500 pm mst Mon oct 14 2019

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Very typical mid october mundane, yet pleasant weather will persist
across the region this week. Temperatures will warm somewhat through
the middle of the week with lower desert communities reaching back
towards the mid 90s. A fast moving, dry weather system will force
temperature back down around the seasonal average by the weekend.

Discussion
A positively tilted shortwave was descending towards western arizona
this afternoon though with the bulk of the midlevel cold core
remaining over northern arizona and height falls minimal, synoptic
scale ascent appears rather limited. However, this wave was inducing
moist southerly flow through the h9-h8 layer advecting modest
moisture into south-central arizona from the gulf of california.

Visible satellite presentation suggests some pockets of brief
vertical development, albeit likely capped by a warm inhibitive
layer just above 700 mb resulting in merely a congestive CU field.

While an isolated shower is possible through this evening within the
corridor of better moisture, there is little model support for more
organized activity and areal coverage would not be expected to
exceed 5-10%.

The lingering moisture may lead to some overnight strato-cu decks in
a h8-h7 layer, but the positive tilt nature of the passing trough
should allow stronger subsidence and rapid clearing to envelop the
forecast area by sunrise Tuesday. Height rises and shortwave ridging
will spread into the SW CONUS during the remainder of the day and
become most pronounced Wednesday with h5 heights peaking in a 586-
588dm range. Confidence is excellent that afternoon highs Wednesday
will reach back into the middle 90s at lower elevations - though
well short of record levels for mid october (phx oct 16th record
high is 101f), this could be the last day of mid 90s around the
phoenix area until next spring (albeit with lower confidence as
abnormal warmth may return next week).

The progressive hemispheric pattern will force another fast moving,
low amplitude shortwave from the east pacific into the great basin
during the latter half of the week. Other than a period of somewhat
stronger afternoon winds Thursday, the only other evidence of this
system will be temperatures retreating back into the upper 80s for
lower elevation communities (i.E. Very near normal for mid october).

Far more forecast uncertainty exists later in the weekend as a
trailing, and deeper pacific trough will dig and amplify through the
western and central conus. A large majority of operational and
ensemble members support a more continental trajectory with
amplification not occurring until the waves passes into the central
rockies. Almost no ensemble member indicates precipitation potential
with this system, and only a minority now would support more
significant cooling and breezier conditions.

Aviation Updated at 0000z
south-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
sct cumulus will become few this evening and may linger through
the night, with bases no lower than 6 kft, before clearing by
sunrise Tuesday. Winds will remain light, primarily 5 kts or
less, through the next 24 hours with periods of variability.

Directions will generally follow typical diurnal tendencies, but
could see instances of light northerly winds this evening and
again Tuesday evening.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
skies will clear this evenings and should remain clear through the
rest of the TAF period. Winds will continue to favor a NW to ne
component at kipl, while kblh's S winds this evening will shift n
to NE early Tuesday morning. There may also be periods of
variability tonight through Tuesday morning at both terminals.

Speeds should remain AOB 6 kts at both sites through the next 24
hours.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Thursday through Monday:
dry weather will persist across all districts through the weekend as
temperatures hover not far from the seasonal average. Seasonably
breezy conditions may exist Thursday afternoon in association with a
passing weather disturbance yielding a slightly enhanced fire danger.

However, much lighter winds should prevail into the weekend with
just the typical upslope breezes. Afternoon minimum humidity levels
will generally fall into a 10-20% range following mostly fair
overnight recovery.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Mo kuhlman
aviation... Benedict
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi18 minESE 410.00 miFair82°F37°F21%1008.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W4CalmNW7N5N5NW8NW8NE3N6N5N4NW5CalmNW8NW95NW543W3SE5CalmSE4
1 day agoCalmW3CalmN3N6N3N4N5N4CalmN4N3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE8SE11SE9SE10SE9Calm
2 days agoCalmNE4W4N5N5NW4N4N7N4N3CalmNW4NW4W3NW3N53Calm4SE6SE7SE7SE8SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.