Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:22PM Saturday August 24, 2019 4:08 AM PDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:13AMMoonset 2:31PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 241005
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
305 am mst Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
Although temperatures will be cooler the next couple days,
humidity levels will be significantly elevated. After the slight
possibility of an early morning shower or even a thunderstorm
near the phoenix metro, chances will be relegated to areas south
of phoenix this afternoon and evening. Drier air will move into
the region through the first half of next week, basically ending
storm chances. Temperatures will start climbing again early next
week with Tuesday and Wednesday possibly topping 110 degrees
across the lower deserts.

Discussion
Boundary layer moisture continues to be quite high across
southern arizona due to multiple instances of storm outflows and
gulf moisture surges over the past couple days, but storm activity
on Friday was overall minimal. A northerly dry flow aloft set up
yesterday as the high pressure ridge strengthened to our northwest
leading to warming aloft and increasing subsidence. 00z soundings
for phoenix and tucson showed modest elevated cape, but a couple
different warm layers aloft mostly suppressed storm potential.

Some hi-res cams have been showing the potential for some isolated
to scattered elevated showers and storms early this morning
across pinal and maricopa counties, but the latest runs have for
the most part backed off on this potential. This is likely due to
the general lack of convection over northern mexico and the
absence of any significant gravity waves that could have acted as
a trigger.

The rest of the today will still pose a small threat for isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms south of phoenix, but the
drying aloft will also be mixing out some of the lower level
moisture, gradually decreasing instability by this evening. Sunday
looks even more quiet with virtually no chance of storms other
than south of tucson. Temperatures this weekend will be somewhat
more comfortable and right around seasonal normals, but increased
surface dew points will make higher humidity levels more
noticeable.

The high pressure ridge centered to our northwest on Sunday will
gradually shift southeastward over our region early this week
with heights staying near steady-state, but low level
conditions will be warming as the atmosphere dries out more each
day. The warm air aloft and fairly dry conditions will keep storm
chances near zero on Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to show
high temperatures quickly trending upward early next week with
highs 3-5 degrees above normal on Monday and 6-8 degrees above
normal by Tuesday. The possibility for a marginal excessive heat
episode is becoming a bit more likely for Tuesday and Wednesday
for the warmest deserts with median guidance showing highs topping
out 109-112 on Tuesday, but will hold off on any headlines for
now.

Eventually, models mostly show the high center shifting just to
our northeast, likely setting up a more favorable southeasterly
moist flow. This should bring back storm chances as early as
Wednesday across the eastern arizona high terrain and possibly
over the arizona lower deserts at some point late next week.

Heights aloft later next week still look to be toward the upper
end of climo normals, but the likely increase in low level
moisture should lower temperatures to just a bit above normal.

Aviation Updated at 0500 utc.

South- central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
westerly winds will mostly prevail overnight with some gusts. The
winds at kiwa are a little more suspect and may be variable at
times.

Late tonight toward sunrise, there are indications that a batch
of more modest intensity showers will develop over pinal county
and into southern eastern portions of metro phoenix. If that were
to happen, most likely timing would be between 11z-16z. Confidence
remains too low at this point to insert -shra into the tafs.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
south and southeasterly winds will prevail today and tonight as
one gulf surge damps out and possibly another comes in late
tonight. Not enough instability for storms though. In fact,
anticipate clear skies except perhaps for some hazy conditions in
the morning over the imperial valley - depending upon development
of another surge.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
unusually dry conditions for late august will prevail through the
first half of next week with only slight chances of high terrain
thunderstorms later in the week. With this dry airmass, temperatures
will once again warm near excessive levels as afternoon highs peak
some 5f-10f above average. Afternoon humidity levels will fall into
the teens during the early part of the week, but increase closer to
a 20-30% range late in the week. Occasionally gusty upslope terrain
winds are likely through the week, though nothing too unusual for
the season.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Kuhlman
aviation... Deems rogers
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi77 minSE 310.00 miFair86°F75°F70%1009.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW6N4N7NW7N4SE8SE7SE9SE7SE11
G16
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1 day agoNE4SE3CalmSE7SE10S8SE6SE6SW55S5--SE4SE4CalmNW10
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2 days agoNW8N7N5NW5NW5W4Calm4S55SE8SE7SE6SE6S4N4N9NW11NW10NW12NW8W6NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.