Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday July 11, 2020 7:33 PM PDT (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 112349 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 449 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE.

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Abnormally strong high pressure building over the area into early next week will result in excessive heat with lower elevation high temperatures rising into the 115 to 119 degree range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening mostly over areas east of Phoenix. Extreme temperatures should subside early next week, but temperatures likely will remain above normal.

DISCUSSION. Radar this afternoon showed convection firing up along the Mogollon Rim. KFSX showed several outflows drifting toward/into southern Gila County. The latest HiRes guidance show additional showers and thunderstorms developing along these outflows as they push toward the west and southwest. HREF guidance shows PWAT values generally remaining between 0.8 to 1.2 inches across south-central Arizona this afternoon and evening, but the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry. Rainfall amounts with these storms are expected remain light overall for most areas, though a few isolated higher amounts aren't out of the question. HRRR remains the most aggressive as it tries to develop convection along the outflows as they push into eastern parts of Maricopa County and potentially into eastern parts of the metro. Can't rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms making as far west as eastern parts of the metro. Main threats with any storms will be gusty outflow winds and lightning, though localized areas of blowing dust aren't out of the question.

The main story will be the excessive heat. Today will be one of the warmest days of the year as afternoon highs are expected to top out around 112-116 degrees across the lower deserts today. Temperatures over the next several days will be the warmest temperatures of the year and perhaps some of the warmest temperatures in 2-3 years.

Overall, there has been very little change to the temperatures as model guidance remains in good agreement in regards to the magnitude of the ridge and the associated heat. Mid-tropospheric heights will peak today around 597-600 dm today across the state. However, the hottest day looks to occur tomorrow when 850 mb temperatures hit its peak. Afternoon highs for Sunday will be in the 115-119 degree range across the lower deserts.

The anticyclone bringing the current excessive heat will begin drifting eastward early next week. This will result in a more pronounced southwesterly flow and somewhat of a cooling trend, though temperatures will likely remain above normal for the foreseeable future. EPS and GEFS guidance doesn't highlight any specific day to be more favorable for convection next week. For now, POPs remain low for much of next week.

AVIATION. Updated at 2350Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Watching outflows boundaries off to the north/east of the metro area and the potential they will move in during the next 2-3 hours. Overall the storms which spawned the outflows were not particularly strong, and the current forward speeds of the outflows is around 10 kt (suggesting gust potential of around 20 kt). Given that the overall trend of storm activity will be downward and the outflows will be having to move downhill against the broad southwesterly flow across the Phoenix area, expecting the outflows to weaken as the move in. Latest TAFs were nudged down a bit with wind shift speeds, and timing slowed a little bit. Also removed any shower wording. Once the outflow is in/through, winds will weaken thereafter and we could be looking at fairly light/variable winds overnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Mid level clouds have moved out and broad southerly flow is coming up out of the Gulf of California and into the lower Colorado River Valley. Do anticipate some weak downslope winds to develop later this evening, with a return of southerly winds on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Dry conditions and well-above normal temperatures can be expected Monday with lower deserts seeing highs in the 112-117 degree range. Some cooling can be expected during the Tues-Fri period. Daytime minimum humidity values will be around 10-20% for most places while overnight recoveries will rise into the 30-50% range for most places, with the highest values over the high terrain. Wind speeds will be light most days, outside of typical afternoon breezes up to 20-25 mph, with directions following local terrain influences. Moisture will fluctuate some, but the atmosphere will likely remain too stable for much thunderstorm coverage in most locations. Gila County will stand the best chance of seeing some isolated activity throughout next week.

CLIMATE.

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures

Date Phoenix AZ | Yuma AZ | El Centro CA ---- ----------- ------- ------------ 7/11 118 in 1958 | 118 in 1958 | 117 in 1975 7/12 115 in 2009 | 119 in 1939 | 118 in 1964 7/13 114 in 2005 | 115 in 1983 | 118 in 1939

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ530>563.

CA . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ560>570.



DISCUSSION . Smith/Hodges AVIATION . Iniguez FIRE WEATHER . Smith/Hodges/Feldkircher CLIMATE . MO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi42 minS 610.00 miFair99°F68°F37%1006.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmNW3W3N5NW6NW5NW8NW6NW7S4SE7SE9CalmCalmCalmCalmW43E9SE12
G18
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1 day agoCalmNW4NW9NW8N10NE33CalmN3CalmCalmW4NW5Calm33E4SE8SE7SE13SE753Calm
2 days agoNW7N16
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NW9NW10NW10SE3CalmNW4N4NE3SE7E11
G18
--SE844SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.