Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little River, SC

UPDATE
Wholesale edits to the forecast are not necessary at this time as the low pops have matched the rogue shower or two the past few hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thus far convection has struggled to develop. Not that shocking given the marginal environment and lack of strong triggers/convergence. Sea breeze has tried to generate some deeper convection, but what has developed has had trouble maintaining itself. Mid-level lapse rates are barely -6 C/km and there is no support aloft. If anything there is a bit of weak subsidence in the wake of a weak shortwave moving across eastern NC. This has really limited the potential for deeper updrafts despite SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Still think there will be some late afternoon and evening convection as the influence of the shortwave weakens a but, but the bulk of the region will remain dry heading into tonight.

Pre-frontal trough approaches from the west after midnight with scattered convection ahead of it. Any activity will be weakening given decreasing instability. However, there does appear to be some weak PVA ahead of another weak shortwave.
Heights will be falling as the 5h trough axis approaches and there is a little bit of divergence aloft ahead of the trough axis. Not expecting a lot in the way of coverage, but occasional nocturnal showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible across the forecast area overnight into early Sat morning. The biggest hurdle will be mid- level dry air and precipitable water right around climatology. Varying amounts of cloud cover and boundary layer mixing will keep lows 7-10 degrees above normal in most areas.

Remains of the pre-frontal trough in the area Sat ahead of the more defined cold front expected late Sat. The front lags the 5h trough axis a bit with the prefrontal trough driving much of Sat's convection. Early round of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm possible will be winding down during the late morning hours Sat, but think better chances will come in the afternoon. Height falls associated with the trough axis and diurnal heating will lead to decent mid-level lapse rates and moisture increases Sat with pwat rising above the 90th percentile. Expect to see good coverage of showers and thunderstorms for much of the forecast area. Far western areas may get enough mid-level dry air/post trough axis subsidence in the afternoon to limit or prevent a second round, but east of the I-95 corridor chances are better ahead of the cold front.
Although the threat is limited cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts, if there is enough time to reset after the weaker, more sporadic morning activity.
Temperatures above normal Sat ahead of the slow moving cold front.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Lingering storms will diminish quickly after sundown Saturday with loss of heating and NVA aloft. May see a few isolated showers early in the night before cold front moves across the area after midnight. Low temps will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s by Sunday morning. Dry weather returns Sunday as mid level ridge begins to build over the Southeast and surface high pressure ridges down from the north. Highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday afternoon with plenty of high clouds. Sunday night will be the coolest night of the forecast period with lows in the low 50s across NE SC and upper 40s/50 across SE NC. If skies clear out more than currently forecasted, low 40s may be possible in traditional cold spots.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Quiet weather remains in the forecast for the start of the work week thanks to mid level ridge over the area providing dry air and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure overhead Monday shifts offshore Tuesday, combining with increasing 850mb temps to kick off a warming trend beginning Tuesday. Near normal temps Monday rise to near 90F Wednesday, with well above normal temps possibly lingering through the end of the week. A front is progged to move across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday, stalling north of our area. Have maintained slight pops across northern counties of CWA for Wednesday afternoon/evening, but lingering mid level dry air and subsidence will make it difficult for anything to development. Rain chances look a bit better on Thursday, and even more so on Friday, as mid level ridge moves off the coast and PWATs increase to ~1.5", with the next front approaching the area late Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall VFR conditions are expected through the period with a couple of caveats. First there could be a brief period of MVFR visibilities in CRE later this evening and a brief period of MVFR ceilings in FLO early Saturday. The next complication is convection for Saturday. With uncertainty PROB 30 groups will suffice with a wider time range along the coast per sea breeze and or pre frontal trough interactions while inland should see mainly later activity if at all associated with the actual front.

Extended Outlook...Moderate confidence in brief MVFR/IFR Saturday afternoon and evening associated with showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.

MARINE
Through Saturday...South to southwest flow continues across the waters through Sat with Bermuda High offshore and slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Gradient becomes a little more defined Sat with speeds increasing from around 10 kt overnight to a solid 15 kt with potential for 15-20 kt later Sat. No expectation of any headlines, but the increase in winds and seas later Sat will start to make conditions less "friendly". Seas 2-3 ft through tonight will build to 3-4 ft later Sat with a southerly wind wave(2-3 ft at 4 sec) becoming dominant later in the day.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southwest winds early Saturday night will turn northerly by Sunday morning as a cold front moves across the coastal waters. Wind speeds will be around 15-20 kt for a brief period Sunday morning. North- northeast winds prevail through midday Monday before onshore flow develops as high pressure moves across to the north. South- southwest winds dominates midday Tuesday through late week as high pressure shifts offshore. Seas 3-4 ft Saturday night and Sunday, mix of SE swell and S then N wind wave, lowers to 2-3 ft for Sunday night through Wednesday, primarily as an E swell with wind wave mixed in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.