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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1210 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1210 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will prevail through Saturday. Hazardous conditions are then expected later Saturday night into Monday as a strong storm system impacts the area. Conditions will then improve as high pressure builds back into the area.

FXUS62 KILM 080536 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1236 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift farther offshore late this week. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds late Saturday night through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in behind the cold front for the first half of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again.

UPDATE
No significant changes with the latest update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
High pressure will makes its way off the Southeast coast into tonight. This will allow winds to back from W to WSW but flow remains very light. Overall, the air mass will begin to modify, but with very light winds and mainly clear skies, expect atmosphere to decouple and temps to drop off quickly after sunset. Should see some cirrus streaming in by morning, but overall mainly clear and cold tonight with temps dropping into the mid 30s most places, but traditionally cooler or wind sheltered places should drop down to freezing.

Air mass will continue to modify in a SW return flow into Friday. After a cold start, temps will rebound from the mid 30s up to the 60s, reaching about 10 degrees warmer than today.
Soundings show upper level moisture increasing through Fri afternoon as cirrus increases. Winds will continue to remain rather light as they back to the SW to S into late Fri. Overall, a dry day with temps reaching up slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm weather on tap for the period as high pressure offshore provides return flow. Friday night lows in the upper 40s are about 10 degrees above climatology. The continued warm advection and increase in clouds will bring lows that are 20 above normal Saturday night. In between Saturday will be a pleasantly warm afternoon with highs in the low 70s as sunshine mixes with increasing clouds at 3kft and perhaps the cirrus level.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An active Sunday in store as a strong upper level system drives a cold front into the Carolinas. The activity may start as light rain in the prefrontal isentropic upglide. Later in the afternoon and early into the evening ascent will be much more dynamic as mid level height falls begin to impinge from the west. The PVA will also become quite strong but it does appear to lag into the early part of Sunday night. Late afternoon/early evening is also when the area finds itself in the ageostrophic divergence associated with the right entrance of a 145kt jet streak. In fact BUFKIT soundings imply vertical motion through just about the entire depth of the troposphere around 00Z. Rain will almost certainly be heavy at times but a rapid progression overall will minimize flooding potential if not preclude it altogether. Instability appears to be the main factor that will modulate our severe weather threat, and it tends to be hard to come by during these shortest days of the year. That said, forecast soundings are showing more than yesterday and imply that SBCAPE could get as high at 1000J/Kg. Even if this doesn't pan out there is good agreement that 925mb winds crank up to 50kt, which could very well be the gusts in heavier areas of rain even in the absence of lightning.

Cold advection behind this system brings temperatures closer to climatology Sunday night. High pressure builds in thereafter keeping mixing shallow for a couple of days/nights about a category below normal. Late in the period the high weakens, there is no thermal advection to speak of so we just add a few degrees thanks to solar modification of the airmass, and the area remains rain-free.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through 06Z/09 with high pressure prevailing. Mainly light SW winds are expected.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings could develop as early as late tonight but are more likely late Saturday night through Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms. Thus, IFR or even LIFR conditions are possible as well. Winds will also be strong/gusty Sunday/Sunday night.

MARINE
Through Friday...Quiet marine conditions will continue as high pressure makes its way farther off the Southeast coast. W winds will back to the SW and then more southerly by later on Fri, but will remain 3 ft or less with a minimal easterly swell mixing in.

Friday night through Tuesday...
Friday night through early Saturday night bring calm weather and small seas as only the diminutive wind waves expected. The latter part of Saturday night will see an increase in winds as a cold front approaches from the west. Sunday will then bring a rapid and considerable deterioration of conditions as the upper level support for ascent increases. Winds build into higher end advisory levels and gale force gusts appear likely. Should models continue to advertise 50kt as low as 925mb then a Gale Watch may be in order. Wind will veer to the NW behind the front Sunday night including through the 925mb layer. This may still allow for significant momentum transfer until this jetting begins to relax after about 06Z or so. Northerly winds slated for the remainder of the period as high pressure remains centered to our west.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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