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FXUS62 KFFC 081953 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Highlights:

- Scattered showers Saturday but QPF values light

- Storms roll in overnight Saturday into Sunday

- Gusty Winds up to 35mph expected ahead of and following the front

Quite a lot to talk about with the short term through the weekend.
Starting off with the troughing which will be the main driver for our weekend weather; the trough will move eastward into the MS Valley with the front and associated showers/storms over the AL/MS line. Ahead of this line on Saturday prefrontal light showers are expected across the area with QPF values up to a quarter of an inch with locally higher amounts. The showers are expected to be scattered at best for our area with N GA likely to see higher amounts this round. At this time the instability values are below 200 J/kg so ultimately not expecting any thunderstorms for Saturday.

Going into the Saturday overnight time frame this is when our main push starts to come through for the area. Starting as early as 2 am we may start to see a prefrontal line of showers enter north GA but the main line looks to enter anywhere from 5-8 am. Timing will come together better with the next model run, but following that initial push we are expecting the line to move southward across GA through the early afternoon for much of the area with southern central GA still potentially being affected through the evening.
Looking at the severe risk central GA is currently outlined in a level 1 out of 5 risk for Sunday. This area is where we are the most likely to see CAPE values closer to 500 J/kg for this system which is still a stretch considering the lack of diurnal heating that will be possible. With abundant cloud cover ahead of the front we are more likely to see CAPE values topping out in the 200-300 J/kg range in select areas with most areas less than 200 J/kg. Despite this, shear values are higher with 0-1 km values closer to 45kts at this time. Ultimately what this means is our highest chance for severe thunderstorms are going to be more in the central Georgia area, but we are expecting this to be in the form of a line with embedded thunderstorms. There also exists the chance for a brief spin up tornado along the line mainly in central GA.

Going into the wind gust situation, winds are looking to start increasing Saturday night into the 10-15mph range and Sunday starting to increase into the 17-23mph range with gusts up to 35- 40mph with locally higher values in the north GA mountains up to 45mph.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
(Sunday evening through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Key Messages:

- Gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday night, with peak gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.

- The upcoming workweek should be dry with gradually warming temperatures.

Concerns for Sunday Night & Monday Morning:

Model guidance continues to project a period of gusty northwest winds in the region Sunday evening and Sunday night. The primary driving factors behind the potential for gusty winds look to be a well mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt winds near 850 mb. The diurnal timing isn't ideal (overnight) for mixing these winds down to the surface, however the overall strength of the system should compensate to a degree. For now we are anticipating peak wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range for most of northern and central Georgia.
Isolated higher gusts (over 40 mph) may occur along the ridgelines in north Georgia. At this time a Wind Advisory could (30% chance) be considered by later shifts.

Temperatures should fall rapidly across the region Sunday night.
While we currently expect the bulk of any precipitation to end before temperatures dip below freezing, a few isolated snow flurries can't be ruled out in the north Georgia mountains Sunday evening (especially along the windward slopes). Patchy slick spots may also develop on elevated surfaces due to refreezing as temperatures fall overnight.

A Brief Comment of Fire Weather:

Due to the ongoing drought and a drier airmass over the region, portions of northern Georgia could flirt with near critical fire weather conditions during the afternoons next week (especially on Tuesday). Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected, but Fire Danger Statements may be issued periodically.

A Broader Look at the Upcoming Workweek:

The upper level trough axis associated with this weekends storm system should push through the region Sunday night. This along with Sundays cold frontal passage will usher in a period of quiet weather for the upcoming workweek. Surface high pressure and weak zonal flow aloft are expected over the Southeast Monday through Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, weak ridging may setup aloft while a second area of surface high pressure builds into the Southeast from the Central Plains. Given this setup our forecast for the upcoming workweek remains precipitation free while favoring a gradual warming trend. Temperatures should start the workweek off on a cool note with afternoon highs running 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages on Monday. As the week progresses the airmass over the Southeast should gradually moderate, allowing temperatures to return to near average readings by Wednesday. Expected highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s Monday with upper 50s and lower 60s returning by Friday.

Albright

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Cu field is currently affecting the area which should dissipate after sunset. Prefrontal showers are expected to start moving into the metro by 08-09z which will result in lowered CIGS to IFR conditions (BKN007-009) through the remainder of the afternoon and evening with no improvement expected at this time. The wind shift to the southeast is expected anytime from now through 20z with winds staying easterly through the remainder of the TAF period.
VSBYs should hover around 2-4SM through tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update

Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 46 65 56 65 / 30 50 90 100 Atlanta 50 66 55 64 / 50 60 100 90 Blairsville 41 59 49 59 / 60 70 100 90 Cartersville 48 66 50 63 / 60 70 100 90 Columbus 52 71 57 67 / 40 40 90 90 Gainesville 47 60 55 62 / 50 70 100 100 Macon 50 71 58 67 / 10 30 70 100 Rome 48 67 50 62 / 60 60 100 80 Peachtree City 48 68 55 64 / 50 60 90 90 Vidalia 53 76 61 73 / 10 20 50 100

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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