Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rayle, GA
January 14, 2025 9:37 PM EST (02:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:37 AM Sunset 5:48 PM Moonrise 6:36 PM Moonset 8:25 AM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Area Discussion for Peachtree City, GA
Hide HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KFFC 142320 AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 620 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
New 00Z Aviation Discussion
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Sfc high pressure over the area will remain in place today into tomorrow which will allow for only high cirrus to stick around through the short term period. Temps today are close to their max with mid to upper 40s in the northern half of the state and then low to mid 50s across central Georgia. Sfc high pressure enforced by the cold air in place will allow for temps to dip down into the mid to upper 20s across northern portions of the area but below 32 across the central portions of Georgia. Winds will begin to tamper as we go through this evening as the center of the high pressure moves closer to the area. Wind gusts should remain below 15mph through Thursday morning.
Main concern will be the dry relative humidities. Currently the rainfall from yesterday and lingering snowpack in the north is contributing to higher FM but the RHs today have gotten into the 25- 30% range and then RHs tomorrow look to follow a similar trend.
Hernandez
LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Low confidence forecast with potentially high impact weather hazards, including isolated strong storms, very cold temps and winter weather, in the long term period.
After a dry and benign Thursday with WNW flow aloft, pattern switches to zonal WSWly flow starting Friday and persists through the weekend. If that wasn't bad enough, an unusually cold arctic airmass, potentially the coldest so far this winter, will be moving into the northern CONUS from western Canada with a max sfc pressure ~1055mb with sfc temps below -20F.
Due to the WSWly flow pattern with very different timing of very subtle wind features, there is extremely low confidence in the timing and amount of any precipitation. Further, due to the difference in timing, location and magnitude of the arctic air, there is similar very low confidence on the precip type.
Before arctic air arrives, the first weak wave in WSW flow may tap some warmer temps and dewpoints late Friday and Saturday. Some signal in the CSU machine learning guidance that storms could be strong on Sat afternoon/Sat night, but instability is a big question mark that far out.
Concern for winter weather increasing, though the potential timing is not until Monday or later. Rather than the discuss the nuances and lack of agreement among each the 200+ global model ensembles over the last 24 hours' worth of model runs, we are messaging that 1) there is a moderate to high chance of subfreezing temps Mon and beyond when the arctic air arrives and 2) there is a low chance (10-20%) of winter precip sometime on Monday and beyond.
Again, the confidence on this is about as low as it can get. Zonal flow, without any coherent, high amplitude features, is notorious for producing forecasts with very low accuracy and reliability, especially with precip timing. Clustering algorithms are literally placing almost equal probabilities in 3 or 4 very different scenarios. One set of guidance can be mild and sunny on Monday, while another will be cold with substantial precip. Will say based on experience that this pattern can produce heavy precip given a strong enough system and a strong baroclinic zone with associated vigorous warm/moist advection.
Will need to keep tabs on the forecast for early next week. For now we have a chance for rain or snow in our deterministic forecast (even in areas below freezing), but our messaging is focused on the chance, if any, for arctic air and winter precip.
SNELSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only SCT/BKN cirrus. Winds will remain NW with speeds 3-6 kts overnight increasing to 5-10 kts on Wednesday.
//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
High confidence.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 30 51 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 30 48 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 20 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 26 47 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 30 49 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 32 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 25 47 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 35 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 620 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
New 00Z Aviation Discussion
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Sfc high pressure over the area will remain in place today into tomorrow which will allow for only high cirrus to stick around through the short term period. Temps today are close to their max with mid to upper 40s in the northern half of the state and then low to mid 50s across central Georgia. Sfc high pressure enforced by the cold air in place will allow for temps to dip down into the mid to upper 20s across northern portions of the area but below 32 across the central portions of Georgia. Winds will begin to tamper as we go through this evening as the center of the high pressure moves closer to the area. Wind gusts should remain below 15mph through Thursday morning.
Main concern will be the dry relative humidities. Currently the rainfall from yesterday and lingering snowpack in the north is contributing to higher FM but the RHs today have gotten into the 25- 30% range and then RHs tomorrow look to follow a similar trend.
Hernandez
LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Low confidence forecast with potentially high impact weather hazards, including isolated strong storms, very cold temps and winter weather, in the long term period.
After a dry and benign Thursday with WNW flow aloft, pattern switches to zonal WSWly flow starting Friday and persists through the weekend. If that wasn't bad enough, an unusually cold arctic airmass, potentially the coldest so far this winter, will be moving into the northern CONUS from western Canada with a max sfc pressure ~1055mb with sfc temps below -20F.
Due to the WSWly flow pattern with very different timing of very subtle wind features, there is extremely low confidence in the timing and amount of any precipitation. Further, due to the difference in timing, location and magnitude of the arctic air, there is similar very low confidence on the precip type.
Before arctic air arrives, the first weak wave in WSW flow may tap some warmer temps and dewpoints late Friday and Saturday. Some signal in the CSU machine learning guidance that storms could be strong on Sat afternoon/Sat night, but instability is a big question mark that far out.
Concern for winter weather increasing, though the potential timing is not until Monday or later. Rather than the discuss the nuances and lack of agreement among each the 200+ global model ensembles over the last 24 hours' worth of model runs, we are messaging that 1) there is a moderate to high chance of subfreezing temps Mon and beyond when the arctic air arrives and 2) there is a low chance (10-20%) of winter precip sometime on Monday and beyond.
Again, the confidence on this is about as low as it can get. Zonal flow, without any coherent, high amplitude features, is notorious for producing forecasts with very low accuracy and reliability, especially with precip timing. Clustering algorithms are literally placing almost equal probabilities in 3 or 4 very different scenarios. One set of guidance can be mild and sunny on Monday, while another will be cold with substantial precip. Will say based on experience that this pattern can produce heavy precip given a strong enough system and a strong baroclinic zone with associated vigorous warm/moist advection.
Will need to keep tabs on the forecast for early next week. For now we have a chance for rain or snow in our deterministic forecast (even in areas below freezing), but our messaging is focused on the chance, if any, for arctic air and winter precip.
SNELSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only SCT/BKN cirrus. Winds will remain NW with speeds 3-6 kts overnight increasing to 5-10 kts on Wednesday.
//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
High confidence.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 30 51 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 30 48 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 20 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 26 47 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 30 49 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 32 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 25 47 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 35 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KIIY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KIIY
Wind History Graph: IIY
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southeast
Edit Hide
Greer, SC,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE