Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:31PM Saturday March 28, 2020 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 10:31PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm early this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers through the night.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 1003 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will keep a summer like pattern across the waters much of the weekend with mainly southwest winds. Winds will become more changeable early next week as a cold front moves across along with a stronger system late in the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 281603 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1203 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Very warm weather will continue until a cold front brings some slightly cooler weather by Monday. Rain arrives with low pressure on Tuesday followed by a trend towards slightly cool weather later in the week.

UPDATE. The marine dense fog advisory has expired on time. Visible satellite imagery shows some lingering fog but the trend is on the way down. Will address any concerns over the next few hours with marine weather statements unless there is an unexpected surge in coverage. Inland forecast in good shape.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Ridge of high pressure aloft will keep stable conditions across the region with warm summer-like temperatures for the Carolinas. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s to near 90 for some locations Saturday and Sunday are well above the normal readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s for late March. Breezy afternoon conditions with gusts into the 20 mph range with good surface heating, mixing, and a likely sea breeze to form with the strong contrast in temperatures between land and sea this weekend.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Still very warm early Sunday night though some cooler and less humid air will filter in towards daybreak Monday behind a moisture- starved cold front. Monday will not be as hot as the previous days but still solidly above climatology as high pressure only weakly builds behind the boundary. The high pulls back in response to low pressure developing over the MS valley Monday night. A developing warm front ahead of this low will spread cloud cover into the region but the rain will hold off until the long term.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Rain chances ramp up to near certain fairly quickly on Tuesday. A healthy mid level system crossing the OH valley will have a multi- centered surface reflection displaced to its south. We don't seem to end up in the warm sector of any of the lows and the one that comes to dominate passes to our south. This isn't very favorable for thunder as advertised in the forecast so have removed deep convection mention and only going with showers. The low moves away on Wednesday but enough moisture lingers in the presence of the lagging upper wave for some low end chance rain chances. The long term will end with slightly cooler than normal temperatures with low rain chances possibly returning on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Passing cirrus this afternoon with some CU possible. Southwest flow with near record temperatures. A southerly resultant is possible at the coastal terminal. Tonight, fair skies with chance of some brief fog near sunrise.

Extended Outlook . Predominately VFR through Monday. Flight restrictions are possible mid week.

MARINE. Strong chances for marine fog as warm moist air moves across the still chilly coastal waters. Fog is expected to dissipate early to mid morning today, but then returning tonight into Sunday morning. Other than visibility reductions, waves 2 to 4 feet from the southwest at 5 seconds for the next 36 hours with southwest winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times during the afternoon hours.

A cold front crosses the area Sunday night into Monday with high pressure only weakly building in behind it. Wind will veer slightly but remain offshore and wind speeds drop behind the front due to the lack of a more normal post-frontal pressure advection. Wind remains light and continues to veer Tuesday, this time considerably. This is in response to low pressure developing well to our west and a warm front developing out ahead of it. The least certainty regarding wind and seas comes Wednesday. Low pressure, possibly with multiple centers will be moving through. A more consolidated low as portrayed in some guidance could mean near advisory conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . SHK NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MCK/MBB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi53 min 63°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi75 min SW 12 G 16 65°F 63°F1015.4 hPa
41119 22 mi33 min 63°F2 ft
WLON7 24 mi53 min 85°F 65°F1014.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi43 min 62°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi75 min SW 14 G 18 64°F 62°F1015 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi53 min S 17 G 18 66°F 61°F1013.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi33 min SW 14 G 18 73°F 72°F4 ft1015.8 hPa73°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi75 min WSW 12 G 18 67°F1013.9 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi53 min 66°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi28 minSW 810.00 miFair73°F64°F76%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:32 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:57 PM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.32.11.10.50.51.123.13.84.24.33.93.12.11.10.50.40.923.24.24.85

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:03 PM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.22.21.30.60.40.81.62.63.43.83.93.732.11.30.60.40.71.52.63.74.44.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.