Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 340 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Isolated showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 340 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A boundary will slowly approach the waters from the mainland tonight through Friday resulting in an increase in winds and seas respectively. High pressure anchored well offshore and weak troughing across the central carolinas this weekend will result in light S to sw winds and fairly benign seas through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181932
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
332 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A trough approaching from the west through Friday will produce
a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the
hot and humid weather will continue through the weekend and
into early next week. A cold front could push to and across the
forecast area the middle of next week, and possibly break the
string of hot and humid days.

Near term through Friday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Heat advisory conditions expected again
on Friday as high heat and humidity combine to produce
dangerous heat with heat indices up over 105. A few places will
near excessive heat warning criteria of 110 or higher. Temps
will reach into the mid 90s most places once again Fri with
overnight lows between 75 and 80 both tonight and Fri night. The
westerly downslope flow in the lower levels should add to heat
potential on fri, but should see more clouds around to help
balance it out a bit.

Mid level trough will shift slowly eastward trying to make its
way across the carolinas tonight through Friday. This trough
approaching from west will help to enhance convective
development in an already unstable atmosphere. All models point
at a late day spike in convection inland with activity
diminishing as it moves toward the coast closer to midnight.

Therefore best chc of greater storm coverage will be i-95
corridor late aftn and shifting toward the coast in a westerly
steering flow, but diminishing later this evening into early
overnight hour as we lose heating.

The mid level trough will remain aligned from SW to NE over the
carolinas as it eases slightly eastward overnight into fri. This
should help to maintain greater cloud cover and convective
activity with slightly higher SW winds through fri. This trough
is coming up against ridge over the atlantic, though which
should re- exert itself, especially heading into the weekend.

Depending on how quickly, should end up with limited, if any
activity heading into overnight fri, but another hot and humid
day expected on fri.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... The latest guidance has trended drier
for Saturday but looking at model soundings profiles are similar
to previous days so I have maintained the chance pops area
wide. Not a lot of forcing is probably what guidance is keying
on but the sea breeze boundary and outflows should be enough.

Almost impossible to go with a dry forecast this time of year.

Highs in the lower to middle 90s combined with the dewpoints
well into the 70s will most likely warrant another heat
advisory.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The main focus of the extended will be
on the events of the latter part of the period as guidance still
points to a decent mid level trough developing and or moving
across the eastern u.S. Of course there is the usual wobbling of
the front and its final position but it will likely be in the
area enhancing convection. The overall trend of the forecast
remains intact, cooling temperatures with increasing pops.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z...VFR. Scattered high clouds across area with cumulus
clouds beginning to develop away from the immediate coast.

Expect low clouds to diminish into overnight hours with few high
clouds remaining. Isolated storms still possible for this
afternoon, with increased chance of rain from approaching trough
around 0z inland and 3z towards to coast. Greater chance of
coverage and thunderstorms inland, and so have included vcts for
flo and lbt, and only vcsh for coastal terminals. No fog
concerns due to elevated winds overnight and marginal low level
moisture. South-southwest winds through tomorrow.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection through Monday, with increased chances
of rain Tuesday.

Marine
As of 300 pm Thursday... Gusty SW winds will continue into
tonight in tightened gradient between trough inland and bermuda
high. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will continue in sea breeze and
enhanced troughing through tonight, but should diminish heading
through Fri into the weekend with a spike up in the aftn sea
breeze again. The southerly push will keep seas up between 3 and
5 ft overnight but seas should come down to 2 to 4 ft late fri
into sat.

Winds and seas basically a persistence forecast for the
short term and much of the extended. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots
will continue with significant seas of 2-4 feet. Some uncertainty in
the wind directions show up toward the end of the period as a front
attempts to cross the area. Wind directions become basically erratic
as is typical with a decaying front but speeds with this feature
(also typical) will be very light.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Rgz
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Vao
marine... Rgz shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi33 min 85°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi85 min SW 18 G 25 83°F 83°F1015.7 hPa
41119 22 mi43 min 83°F4 ft
WLON7 24 mi63 min 89°F 88°F1014.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi53 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi85 min SW 18 G 21 81°F 80°F1014.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi63 min S 21 G 23 84°F 79°F1014 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi43 min SSW 19 G 23 84°F 84°F4 ft1015.6 hPa79°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi85 min WSW 19 G 25 83°F 84°F1015.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi63 min 83°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi38 minSSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair87°F77°F73%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5S5S6S4S3CalmS5SW4SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4SW5SW6W7W6SW6S6S7S8S8S5SW10
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2 days agoSW6SW4CalmSW3SW4CalmSW3SW3CalmCalm------------CalmSW5S5S4S4S3S4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Thu -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.70.60.20.61.52.53.44.14.54.33.62.61.40.50.20.51.52.73.84.75.35.44.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.90.80.20.41.12.133.74.143.42.51.60.70.20.31.12.23.34.24.84.94.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.