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FXUS62 KFFC 041924 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 224 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Current satellite loop shows mainly high clouds streaming across central and southern portions of the state. Looking for mostly dry conditions across the CWA for the next few days as high pressure centered over the Arklatex region should keep the southeastern states dry. There will be a small chance of precip across the NE GA mountains as they may see a bit of rain/snow mix Tue night into early Wed morning. The southern edge of a wave moving east across the OH river valley and the Mid Atlantic states will move across NE GA Tue night. Temps will be cold enough for the possibility of a rain snow mix, but moisture will be lacking so not expecting any accumulations.

Temperatures tonight will dip down into the 30s across the area with a slight rebound Tomorrow. Tuesdays highs are expected in get up into the 50s and 60s. Tue night lows will dip back down into the 50s with near freezing temps in the NE GA mountains.

01

LONG TERM
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

As the long term period begins on Wednesday, an upper level longwave trough extending from New England into the Florida Panhandle will be moving eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. The axis of this trough will be crossing through Georgia as the morning begins. An associated surface low will be well offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast, with the cold front having previous cleared through Georgia late in the short term period. With some wraparound moisture on the back side of the aforementioned low co-located with the trough axis, and a weak surface boundary near northeast Georgia/southeast Tennessee, there is a slight chance to see a few light rain and show showers in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia in the early morning hours. However, measurable winter precipitation amounts are expected to remain minimal. By mid-morning, the trough axis will swing eastward away from the area, with northwesterly upper flow setting up over the region.

As this occurs, an upper level ridge over the Great Plains will advance towards the eastern CONUS, with an associated surface high moving into the Southeast. The influence of the high and drier air in the atmospheric column will keep weather conditions benign through the end of the work week. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s north roughly north of the I-85 corridor and in the mid to upper 50s to the south. After low temperatures on Thursday start out in the upper 20s and low 30s, they will begin to moderate under the influence of the high, rising into the mid to upper 50s across the area Thursday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, the center of the high will move towards the Georgia/South Carolina coast, with winds shifting to SW with gusts up to 15 mph. Dry air will remain in place during the afternoon, with minimum RH values forecast to range from 30-35 percent.
Considering near borderline RH values and dry 10-hour fuels, the potential for hazardous fire weather conditions will need to be monitored.

Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday, especially the southerly low level air bringing in warm and moist air. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 30s across the majority of the area, with highs rising into the upper 50s in far north Georgia to mid 60s in central Georgia. Another upper trough is forecast to move into the Central Plains by Saturday morning and into the Mississippi River Valley by Saturday night. A surface low is expected to develop to the immediate east of the trough and extend a cold front southward.
As a result, rain chances are expected to increase across the area starting Saturday morning and through the weekend. At this time, it appears that precip will be most widespread Saturday night through Sunday morning. However, model discrepancies exist with respect to the timing and evolution of this system and where the surface low ultimately develops and begins to intensify.

King

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mainly high clouds across the area with W-SW wind speeds increasing. Not expecting any precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs this TAF set. Winds will get up in the 10-15kt range gusting to 25kt over the next few hours. Will see wind speeds diminish to 10kt or less after sunset. Clouds will also clear out after sunset. Wind speeds will pick back up slightly Tue afternoon but nothing like today.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Confidence high on all elements.

01

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 37 59 39 54 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 38 58 39 50 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 31 53 33 43 / 0 0 30 10 Cartersville 33 57 36 50 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 61 40 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 37 56 40 50 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 39 62 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 34 58 37 52 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 35 59 37 52 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 42 63 43 58 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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