Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Segundo, CA

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...10/954 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures continue to trend 5 to 10 degrees above normal away from the coasts, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Marine layer clouds and fog were a little sluggish to clear along the Central Coast where highs in the low 60s were common. Tonight, high clouds are streaming over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties from the west, and are expected to slowly move south through Friday.
Another round of coast and coastal plain low clouds and fog are expected tonight, possibly becoming dense during the early morning hours. Temperatures Friday look similar to today's highs, but should be a few degrees cooler up north where onshore flow is stronger. High pressure nudges into the southern areas, where highs could trend a few degrees warmer. May need to warm temperatures 2-5 degrees for Saturday as now heights are rising slightly (591 dam over LA County).

Breezy southwest winds are affecting the Antelope Valley Foothills tonight, with gusts from 15 to 30 mph, and are expected to weaken overnight. However, will likely see this area grow gusty again tomorrow afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak ridge currently in place will slowly be replaced by a weak trough that will move through northern California Saturday. Most of the ensemble members favor a solution that keeps that trough more or less in place over the Great Basin area through early next week. This will bring about a slow cooling trend through the period, generally 1-3 degrees cooler each day.

The only other weather feature of interest in the short term forecast is some increasing northerly winds across the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County later in the weekend into early next week as the upper low moves into the Great Basin and winds aloft shift to the north. Could be some low end advisory levels winds at times in those areas. Otherwise night and morning low clouds will move onshore each evening and push into some of the lower valleys with areas of dense fog possible.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/206 PM.

The cooler pattern is expected to continue through next week with some non-zero chances for very light precip mid to late next week.
Ensembles show abnormally large spread in the solutions, especially beyond Wednesday, which explains the big run to run changes in the deterministic solutions. The ensemble mean solutions favor a weak and mostly inland track of a trough coming through later Wednesday into Thursday with a chance of drizzle or very very light precip mainly north of Santa Barbara County, and then moving into the northern mountains area with favorable upslope flow to generate some light precip there as well. Then followed by some strong northerly flow with some EPS solutions indicating close to warning level speeds. Sometimes these patterns create a deep enough marine layer to spit out some morning drizzle across southern areas as well.

Looking a little father out, ensemble means show strong ridging developing after that into next weekend a possible Santa Ana event Saturday and possibly Sunday as well

AVIATION
11/0132Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 700 ft. The top of the inversion was near 2100 ft with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Low confidence in KBUR and KVNY, with uncertainty if cigs will reach the TAF sites. If cigs do arrive, expecting them to be short-lived.

Low to moderate confidence for coastal TAFs, with the greatest uncertainty for arrival times of cigs, which may be 1-4 hours later than forecast. Periods of VSBY of 1/2SM to 3SM will be possible at times overnight, especially north of Point Conception.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence for coastal TAFs. Cigs may arrive 1-4 hours later than forecast. There is a 30% chance of several hours of VSBY of 1/2SM to 3SM from 10Z-15Z Fri. No significant east wind is expected, however light east winds (4kt or less) are possible from 09Z to 16Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF, there is a 40% chance of VFR conds through the period.

MARINE
10/654 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the current forecast.
Tonight through Friday morning, there is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds. From Friday afternoon through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds with potential daily lulls in the winds in the late night and morning hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through Sunday.

Patchy dense fog will continue across the coastal waters overnight into the morning hours today through at least Saturday morning, with visibilities of one nautical mile or less possible.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.