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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ600 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1028 mb high was centered 500 nm W of point conception and a 974 mb low was over the gulf of alaska. Gusty nw winds will affect the outer waters near and south of the channel islands through Monday.

FXUS66 KLOX 040535 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 935 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
03/1258 PM.

Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through Tuesday or while afternoon high temperatures gradually warm under a ridge.
There is a slight chance of light rain Wednesday evening and Thursday, mostly along the central coast. The clouds and the weakening ridge will drop temperatures back to near normal before another round of Santa Ana winds arrive next weekend.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...03/908 PM.

Beautiful day today, with 1 to 3 degrees of warming and scattered high clouds. Breezy north to northeast winds continued for mountains and foothills. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with lows largely warmer than last night.

Wind Advisories have been issued for the Southern Ventura County and Santa Clarita Valleys, where northeast wind gusts 30 to 35 mph are expected from 400 AM tomorrow until noon. Gusty winds are also expected for the San Luis Obispo County mountains and foothills, but will be sub-advisory. Due to this offshore flow, expect 3 to 5 degrees of warming for coasts and valleys tomorrow, with high clouds scattering out in the afternoon.

Synoptically, the area is under an upper level ridge that is helping to guide an atmospheric river into northern CA and Oregon.
A shortwave feature develops into something resembling a cutoff low just to our south and persists from Monday into Wednesday but shouldn't affect much except possibly cloud cover. By late Wednesday the northern part of the area may begin to see some light rain associated with a trough extending down from a low in the Gulf of Alaska. Deterministic solutions keep the moisture to our north, but there are enough wet ensemble members to drive PoP to about 20%. This feature will then move ashore and drop into the great basin, setting up the gradient to drive another offshore event next weekend.

Ridging will cover Srn CA for the next three days with hgts rising to ~582 dam by Tuesday. There will be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow from both the N and E through the period as a sfc high over the Great Basin will not move much at all. There will be no upper level or thermal support for the winds generated by the offshore flow. There will be 15 to 25 mph winds with isolated gusts to 35 mph each morning but nothing near advisory levels.

A chance of low clouds Monday morning in the Paso Robles area should be the extent of the low stratus while offshore flow keeps the low clouds at bay. Higher aloft, a few waves of cirrus clouds will roll over the area today creating partly to mostly cloudy skies. These higher clouds will linger overnight and keep low temps a bit warmer before clearing out Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be mostly clear.

The ridge, rising hgts and offshore flow all contribute to a three day warming trend. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of warming today and then 3 to 5 degrees of warming each day Mon and Tue. By Tuesday max temps across csts/vlys will mostly be in the mid 70s to lower 80s or 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will flatten on Wednesday and zonal, westerly flow will prevail at the upper levels. At the surface our offshore flow will weaken to near neutral. The lowering hgts and much weaker offshore flow will send the temps quickly downward; look for 2 to 5 degrees of cooling everywhere save for the Antelope Valley which will not be too affected by the hgt falls.

There is still a slight chc (~20%) of some light showers across the SLO and most of SBA counties as well as the north slopes near the Kern county line on Wednesday, although models are keeping the heavier rain to our north. Rainfall amount, if any, should be less than a tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/134 PM.

Clouds and light rain could persist all day Thursday and into early Friday for SLO and SBA Co, while the rest of the rest of the CWA will remain mostly clear. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling Thursday and Friday, or more in the interior. Friday's max temps across the csts vlys will mostly be in the 60s. There should be a moderate 6 to 7 mb offshore push from the north and this will likely generate some gusty winds through the I-5 corridor and SBA south coast.

Next Saturday and Sunday look like they will have another ridge along with a weak or moderate (near advisory-strength) Santa Ana event.

AVIATION
04/0535Z.

At 0455Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep with an inversion top at 1100 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX and KPRB with a 25 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence TAF through 17Z then high confidence.
There is a 25 percent chc of BKN007 conds 11Z-17Z. There is a 20% chance of a 6 kt east wind component through 16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of a north wind after 00Z.

MARINE
03/248 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing across PZZ673/676. Will likely see seas at or above SCA levels on Tuesday morning and lasting into the weekend, with a slight dip below advisory levels possible Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds returning to SCA levels increasing to 50-60% on Thursday, with the highest chances near/South of Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was issued for the inner waters north of Point Sal due to seas near 10 feet and some areas of gusty SCA level winds. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level seas, highest on Wednesday, but winds will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Expecting isolated SCA level winds over far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon. Through Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica each night and morning, with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Wednesday and Thursday, moderate to high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for a 40% chance of SCA level winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 4 AM to noon PST Monday for zones 88-374. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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El Segundo
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Mon -- 04:27 AM PST     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM PST     3.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:17 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:57 PM PST     3.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM PST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:37 PM PST     Moonrise
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El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Mon -- 04:17 AM PST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM PST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:17 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:47 PM PST     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:24 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:38 PM PST     Moonrise
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Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California (2), Tide feet

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