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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 838 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon...
Rest of today..Variable winds 5 kt, becoming se to S 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 838 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will prevail through Saturday. Hazardous conditions will develop Sunday into Monday as a strong storm system affects the area. Conditions will then improve as high pressure builds back into the area for next week.

FXUS62 KILM 091344 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 844 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm and mainly dry weather is expected through tonight. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure then builds in for most of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again.

UPDATE
Included a small PoP for mainly coastal areas of the Cape Fear region for this morning. Could additionally see an isolated shower or two for parts of northeast SC. Otherwise the current forecast is on track with highs running 10-15F above normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid-level cloudiness courtesy of a 500mb shortwave will decrease in coverage through the remainder of the early morning hours as the trough moves through and shortwave ridging brings subsidence in its wake. As mid-level cloud coverage decreases, this will present an opportunity for at least patchy fog development, particularly near the coast, where dewpoints are higher and winds will remain light or calm.

For the daylight hours, any patchy fog should burn off within an hour or two of sunrise as scattered clouds permit sufficient warming to mix the lower atmosphere. Looking upstream, a broad mid-upper trough will sharpen considerably while progressing over the nation's midsection. At the surface, a lengthy cold front will become active with a band of showers and thunderstorms developing from the lower MS Valley through the Ohio Valley as forcing for ascent strengthens.
Ahead of this front and forcing for ascent, a weak coastal trough is expected to develop and lead to offshore showers which will track NE, largely staying offshore through the day. Brief light showers cannot be ruled out along the coast, but it appears unlikely that any meaningful rainfall will occur. With rising mid-level heights and surface high pressure to the east still largely in control, an unseasonably warm and humid day is in store as highs reach into the low-mid 70s amidst dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to low 60s during the afternoon beneath mixed clouds and sun.

On Saturday night, the approaching front and mid-upper trough look to keep most of their associated showers west of the CWA through the night. However, coastal locales should see the offshore showers scraping the coastline more often as low-level steering flow backs to southerly through the night. Strengthening low-level warm advection will lead to temps leveling off around midnight in the upper 50s to around 60 before slowly climbing through the remainder of the night as dewpoints also creep upward.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Moderate through Sunday night; Moderate to High Monday and Monday night

Main Highlights/Concerns: Strong winds and possibly a few severe storms Sunday and Sunday night

Details: Sunday and Sunday night will feature very active weather across SE NC and NE SC as an unseasonably deep neutral to negatively tilted upper trough moves across the region. This feature will force a strong surface cold front and area of low pressure to approach the local area on Sunday and then move through and offshore Sunday night. An increasing pressure gradient and low- level jet ahead of the front will yield increasingly breezy conditions on Sunday with gusts likely around 30- 35 mph at times with some higher gusts possible, especially in heavier showers/storms. Showers will generally be on the increase during the day and into the evening as moisture and lift increase with probably enough instability for some thunderstorms. As is typical for cool season storm systems though in this part of the country, surface- based instability should remain limited (<1000 J/kg), especially near the coast given the southerly flow off the cool Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, deep-layer shear should peak at 50+ kt which is plenty sufficient for storm organization/strength. However, it's worth noting that the instability should peak during the daytime with the highest shear occurring in the evening, although shear still looks sufficient enough during the afternoon for severe weather.
Overall, we think the severe storm risk is pretty low but a few instances of damaging wind gusts (>=58 mph) and/or even a tornado will be possible, especially inland during the afternoon/early evening. Highs should be in the lower to mid 70s.

Cooler and drier high pressure will then quickly move into the area later Sunday night after the cold frontal passage in the evening.
Breezy conditions will continue through the night, slowly diminishing toward daybreak. Lows should mostly be in the lower to mid 40s.

Conditions will continue to calm and dry out Monday as high pressure builds more into the area from the west. Highs should stay below normal, mainly be in the lower to mid 50s, with low temps Monday night at or below freezing away from the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Confidence: Moderate to High

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool and dry surface high pressure will prevail along with more zonal upper flow. Highs should mostly be in the 50s with lows generally in the 30s, which is just a touch below normal.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR expected through the TAF period. An isolated rain shower or two cannot be ruled out along the coast through the day, but any impact will be brief. Weak sea breeze with onshore flow at coastal sites through today while inland areas maintain generally south winds. Ceilings come down into the MVFR range tonight, at least for the inland sites. Offshore showers should also begin affecting coastal sites more frequently late in the night.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings expected for Sunday and Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms. LIFR conditions are possible at times until the frontal passage occurs. Winds will also be strong/gusty ahead of and behind the cold front on Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
Through Tonight... Generally benign marine conditions will persist through Saturday under the predominant influence of high pressure with seas around 1-2 ft and winds around 10 kts. Over Saturday night, a tightening pressure gradient with the approach of a strong cold front will lead to increasing winds and seas.
Expect winds rising to around 15 kts and seas growing into the 3-4 ft range, largely driven by a southerly wind wave with a period of 4-5 sec.

Sunday through Wednesday: Moderate to high confidence this period. Hazardous conditions are expected into Monday as a strong cold front passes through the local Atlantic waters Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect but should also see some gale force gusts, especially over the eastern waters closer to the warmer Gulf Stream. However, the gales should be limited in time/coverage and more likely associated with the showers/storms so we don't think a Gale Warning will be needed. Meanwhile, seas will build to 6-8+ feet Sunday night with winds/seas subsiding fairly steadily and below SCA levels during the afternoon on Monday. High pressure will then build in bringing fairly benign marine conditions although winds/seas will remain a bit elevated given the lingering pressure gradient/cold advection.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Yaupon Beach
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Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:21 AM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:26 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:31 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
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Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Fear
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Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:27 AM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

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