Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, NC
November 5, 2024 1:57 PM EST (18:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:34 AM Sunset 5:16 PM Moonrise 10:38 AM Moonset 8:06 PM |
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1000 Am Est Tue Nov 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Rest of today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Fri - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
AMZ200 1000 Am Est Tue Nov 5 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will linger off the east coast through mid-week. A weak coastal trough will develop Wednesday and may move onshore late Wednesday or Thursday. A cold front should move south across the area late Thursday into Friday.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Yaupon Beach Click for Map Tue -- 02:51 AM EST 0.74 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:35 AM EST Sunrise Tue -- 09:28 AM EST 5.51 feet High Tide Tue -- 10:38 AM EST Moonrise Tue -- 03:45 PM EST 1.08 feet Low Tide Tue -- 05:15 PM EST Sunset Tue -- 08:06 PM EST Moonset Tue -- 09:31 PM EST 4.43 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
2.5 |
1 am |
1.6 |
2 am |
0.9 |
3 am |
0.7 |
4 am |
1.1 |
5 am |
2 |
6 am |
3.2 |
7 am |
4.3 |
8 am |
5.1 |
9 am |
5.5 |
10 am |
5.4 |
11 am |
5 |
12 pm |
4 |
1 pm |
2.9 |
2 pm |
1.9 |
3 pm |
1.3 |
4 pm |
1.1 |
5 pm |
1.5 |
6 pm |
2.3 |
7 pm |
3.3 |
8 pm |
4 |
9 pm |
4.4 |
10 pm |
4.4 |
11 pm |
4 |
Cape Fear Click for Map Tue -- 03:12 AM EST 0.67 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:35 AM EST Sunrise Tue -- 09:34 AM EST 5.04 feet High Tide Tue -- 10:37 AM EST Moonrise Tue -- 04:06 PM EST 0.97 feet Low Tide Tue -- 05:15 PM EST Sunset Tue -- 08:06 PM EST Moonset Tue -- 09:37 PM EST 4.05 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
2.5 |
1 am |
1.7 |
2 am |
1 |
3 am |
0.7 |
4 am |
0.8 |
5 am |
1.5 |
6 am |
2.6 |
7 am |
3.7 |
8 am |
4.5 |
9 am |
5 |
10 am |
5 |
11 am |
4.6 |
12 pm |
3.9 |
1 pm |
2.9 |
2 pm |
2 |
3 pm |
1.3 |
4 pm |
1 |
5 pm |
1.2 |
6 pm |
1.9 |
7 pm |
2.8 |
8 pm |
3.6 |
9 pm |
4 |
10 pm |
4 |
11 pm |
3.7 |
Area Discussion for Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 051459 AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast over the next few days. Temperatures will surge above normal Tuesday through Thursday as subtropical air moves onshore. Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure may return Friday into next weekend before a front approaches early next week.
UPDATE
No major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM EST forecast update. Ticked the high temperatures slightly upward.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high parked off the east coast will maintain warm, moist southeast flow across the area today while ridging aloft persists.
Forecast soundings and layer data continue to show an abundance of nearly saturated air in the lowest 100mb or so, mainly over South Carolina. While there is no coastal trough to provide convergence today there will be some heating, along with warm advection, which will add some weak surface based instability to the equation. Given the very warm temps for early Nov would also expect a sea breeze to set up, which would aid low level convergence. What this all points to is a setup very similar to Mon, with chances for isolated showers spreading a bit farther north than what was seen yesterday, basically up the Horry County coast. The inland extent should be quite similar.
This area of enhanced moisture does eventually shift farther inland, but it now appears this will happen late afternoon or evening vs earlier in the day. Expect to see more cloud cover across SC than previously thought so did trend highs down slightly, although the region remains well above climo with widespread 80s across much of the area. Southeast flow, elevated boundary layer moisture and increasing high cloud tonight will keep lows well above climo.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Guidance remains insistent on somewhat broad synoptic lift occurring across the area Wednesday and Thursday. This appears to be a piece of energy from the deep trough out west and an extension of developing moisture in the deep tropics. For this package I incrementally increased pops due to the consistency which now reach likely in some areas. Temperature forecast remains a warm one Wednesday dropping Thursday primarily due to increased moisture. Lows are expected to be consistent in the middle 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep mid level trough out west finally gets ejected but well to the northeast as ridging builds in once again across the SE.
Ensemble members all over the place regarding pops as would be expected in a seemingly weakly forced event (across our area) and somewhat moisture challenged profile. A smattering of low pops remain in place with lower confidence noted. No real changes to temperatures as they remain slightly on the warm side of things.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Transient IFR at ILM due to swamp influence will quickly turn to VFR with a bit of heating. IFR may even be gone by the time the 12Z TAF is valid. Remainder of the day/evening will be dominated by VFR. Potential for MVFR/IFR in the predawn hours Wed. Will depend how quickly the thicker cirrus spreading north after midnight can reach the area. Inland IFR ceilings/visibilities are due to enhanced area of low level moisture. Heating and mixing will bring a return of VFR by 14Z with VFR persisting through evening. Expect MVFR and eventually IFR development at inland sites early Wed, but this hinges of extent and thickness of high cloud.
Widespread VFR across SC today into tonight with potential for some brief MVFR along the coast in the afternoon associated with development of isolated showers. VFR will continue overnight at coastal terminals, but there is potential for MVFR/IFR at inland sites depending on the timing and thickness of the cirrus shield.
Extended Outlook...There is moderate potential for occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR dominates.
MARINE
Through Tonight...Northeast flow has veered to southeast with speeds starting to decrease. However, the combination of the lingering easterly wind wave and the increasing southeast swell (in part due to the development of southeast/onshore flow)
necessitates continuation of the Small Craft Advisory well into tonight. Seas will gradually trend down, but the outer portions of the zones will take a while to drop below 6ft. Southeast flow today and tonight will be 10-15 kt with a few higher gusts.
Wednesday through Saturday...Light east to southeast flow across the waters for the first few days is anticipated. Beyond this a northeast flow is forecast to build in but there are somewhat stark differences in global guidance. Wind speeds will be higher with the ne flow should it develop. Overall significant seas will be 2-4 feet with perhaps a few five footers very late.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast over the next few days. Temperatures will surge above normal Tuesday through Thursday as subtropical air moves onshore. Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure may return Friday into next weekend before a front approaches early next week.
UPDATE
No major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM EST forecast update. Ticked the high temperatures slightly upward.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high parked off the east coast will maintain warm, moist southeast flow across the area today while ridging aloft persists.
Forecast soundings and layer data continue to show an abundance of nearly saturated air in the lowest 100mb or so, mainly over South Carolina. While there is no coastal trough to provide convergence today there will be some heating, along with warm advection, which will add some weak surface based instability to the equation. Given the very warm temps for early Nov would also expect a sea breeze to set up, which would aid low level convergence. What this all points to is a setup very similar to Mon, with chances for isolated showers spreading a bit farther north than what was seen yesterday, basically up the Horry County coast. The inland extent should be quite similar.
This area of enhanced moisture does eventually shift farther inland, but it now appears this will happen late afternoon or evening vs earlier in the day. Expect to see more cloud cover across SC than previously thought so did trend highs down slightly, although the region remains well above climo with widespread 80s across much of the area. Southeast flow, elevated boundary layer moisture and increasing high cloud tonight will keep lows well above climo.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Guidance remains insistent on somewhat broad synoptic lift occurring across the area Wednesday and Thursday. This appears to be a piece of energy from the deep trough out west and an extension of developing moisture in the deep tropics. For this package I incrementally increased pops due to the consistency which now reach likely in some areas. Temperature forecast remains a warm one Wednesday dropping Thursday primarily due to increased moisture. Lows are expected to be consistent in the middle 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep mid level trough out west finally gets ejected but well to the northeast as ridging builds in once again across the SE.
Ensemble members all over the place regarding pops as would be expected in a seemingly weakly forced event (across our area) and somewhat moisture challenged profile. A smattering of low pops remain in place with lower confidence noted. No real changes to temperatures as they remain slightly on the warm side of things.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Transient IFR at ILM due to swamp influence will quickly turn to VFR with a bit of heating. IFR may even be gone by the time the 12Z TAF is valid. Remainder of the day/evening will be dominated by VFR. Potential for MVFR/IFR in the predawn hours Wed. Will depend how quickly the thicker cirrus spreading north after midnight can reach the area. Inland IFR ceilings/visibilities are due to enhanced area of low level moisture. Heating and mixing will bring a return of VFR by 14Z with VFR persisting through evening. Expect MVFR and eventually IFR development at inland sites early Wed, but this hinges of extent and thickness of high cloud.
Widespread VFR across SC today into tonight with potential for some brief MVFR along the coast in the afternoon associated with development of isolated showers. VFR will continue overnight at coastal terminals, but there is potential for MVFR/IFR at inland sites depending on the timing and thickness of the cirrus shield.
Extended Outlook...There is moderate potential for occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in showers Wednesday night through Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR dominates.
MARINE
Through Tonight...Northeast flow has veered to southeast with speeds starting to decrease. However, the combination of the lingering easterly wind wave and the increasing southeast swell (in part due to the development of southeast/onshore flow)
necessitates continuation of the Small Craft Advisory well into tonight. Seas will gradually trend down, but the outer portions of the zones will take a while to drop below 6ft. Southeast flow today and tonight will be 10-15 kt with a few higher gusts.
Wednesday through Saturday...Light east to southeast flow across the waters for the first few days is anticipated. Beyond this a northeast flow is forecast to build in but there are somewhat stark differences in global guidance. Wind speeds will be higher with the ne flow should it develop. Overall significant seas will be 2-4 feet with perhaps a few five footers very late.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
41108 | 13 mi | 58 min | 74°F | 70°F | 5 ft | |||
MBIN7 | 17 mi | 118 min | SE 6G | 73°F | 30.21 | 68°F | ||
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) | 22 mi | 110 min | E 7.8G | 71°F | 70°F | 30.20 | 69°F | |
SSBN7 | 22 mi | 58 min | 70°F | 4 ft | ||||
MBNN7 | 23 mi | 118 min | SE 2.9G | 77°F | 30.20 | 69°F | ||
WLON7 | 23 mi | 58 min | 76°F | 69°F | 30.20 | |||
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 25 mi | 110 min | SE 7.8G | 72°F | 70°F | 30.22 | 64°F | |
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC | 25 mi | 62 min | 70°F | 5 ft | ||||
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC | 26 mi | 58 min | ESE 7G | 72°F | 69°F | 30.22 | ||
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy | 36 mi | 48 min | SE 14G | 76°F | 78°F | 30.20 | 66°F | |
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 38 mi | 50 min | S 5.8G | 74°F | 30.20 | |||
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC | 48 mi | 58 min | E 9.9G | 72°F | 72°F | 30.20 |
Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUT
Wind History Graph: SUT
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of southeast
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Wilmington, NC,
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