Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, NC
May 8, 2024 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 5:21 AM Moonset 8:04 PM |
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 636 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening and overnight.
Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 636 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the area into Thursday while a surface trough extends across the carolinas. Modest souwest winds could near small craft advisory levels at times, especially Thursday. A cold front accompanied with strong and possibly severe convection will move through the area late Thursday into Friday. Cooler and drier air will then return to start the weekend with high pressure prevailing.
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 082325 AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 725 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A typical summer time pattern will lead to daily showers and thunderstorms through Friday, sparked by a series of shortwaves moving across the area. A cold front Friday night will bring much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of next week. Rain chances return for the middle of next week.
UPDATE
Quick update for pops mainly on a nowcast basis via radar. Added fog to a good part of the area based on what is now becoming a somewhat significant rainfall event is some areas.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A Severe Weather Watch has been issued for our inland counties (mainly along I-95) through 10pm this evening. Convective activity has been over-performing just east of the Appalachians this afternoon, and will continue moving east-southeastward ahead of a weak shortwave. How far into our CWA storms get is still questionable. Chances are best along I-95 with lower confidence closer to the coast where drier air lingers aloft (as seen by shallow diurnal cu field). MLCAPE values are already above 2000 J/kg, with MUCAPE over 3000. Any storms that do make it into our area have a decent chance of becoming severe, with large hail and strong winds main threat.
Well above normal low temps tonight around 70F with partly cloudy skies. A cluster of storms, possibly MCS, will be moving across the Carolinas overnight. Given time of day, any workover of the environment this evening, and storms moving over the mountains, not expecting the cluster/MCS to maintain strength as it reaches our area. Any rain that does move through overnight/early morning has low chance for thunder and even lower chance of any severe threat.
Yet another shortwave/storm cluster is progged to move across the Southeast tomorrow morning into the afternoon, this time with more of a focus for our northeast SC counties. Our entire CWA is in a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather again Thursday.
Confidence isn't the greatest - will have a better idea after any activity moves across through morning and if there is lingering cloud coverage early Thursday. Forecasted CAPE isn't as abundant as today, but still near 2000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. Bit more shear Thursday, with winds over 30 kts not far above the surface (which will also contribute to a breezy day). High temps Thursday near 90F.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Flat flow aloft will move a series of weak shortwaves across the area. The first moves overhead Thu night with any associated convection shifting offshore during the evening hours Thu. Post wave subsidence arrives Thu night, ending any convective threat for the remainder of the overnight. Some clearing Thu night, but still at least some cloud cover will hang around into Fri. Forecast soundings show the post wave subsidence and dry air very well, with precipitable water dropping under 1" Thu night.
Strong southwest flow Fri morning ramps up moisture, increasing precipitable water to near 1.7" for early afternoon. Surface based instability "only" peaks around 2k J/kg, due to cloud cover and the mid-level support, associated with the second shortwave, arriving around midday instead of around peak heating. Low level jet will be 35-40kt at 3k ft on Fri with LIs around -6. All of this suggests the potential for an isolated strong to severe storms in the area midday to early afternoon Fri. The big question remains down to the timing.
Several factors will need to come in line to warrant more than the current marginal risk. If timing were to be delayed a few hours and parameters instead came in line mid to late afternoon, the severe threat could be higher. Something to keep an eye on.
The second shortwave moves east of the area late Fri afternoon with a cold front crossing the area in the evening. A significant amount of cool/dry air moves in Fri night into Sat with temps dropping from above climo temps Thu night and Fri to near climo by Sat morning.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Much cooler and drier for the weekend and start of next week following the passage of a cold front late Fri. Weak troughing at 5h on Sat is reinforced by shortwave crossing the Mid-Atlantic Sat night into Sun. This feature helps drive a dry, secondary cold front across the area Sun morning. Front is dry because precipitable water drops under 0.50" Sat and remains below the 10th percentile, about 0.70", into Mon afternoon. Additionally, most of the dynamics with the shortwave pass north of the area. Moisture does start to increase late Mon as surface high slips off the coast and weak shortwave ridge at 5h shifts offshore. Increasing southwest flow, at the surface and aloft, ahead of southern stream shortwave pushes pwats over 1.8" Tue into Wed. Although forcing is limited Tue/Wed given the path of the shortwave Tue/Wed, instability, decreasing heights and abundant moisture will lead to elevated rain chances for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near to below climo through Wednesday.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Thunderstorms affecting inland sites currently although activity finally appears to be weakening ever so slightly. VFR conditions will return in a few hours but may be short lived as heavy rain areas may see quick fog development. However a second shortwave on the heels of this one may produce more showers and thunderstorms early Thursday negating the fog development. Used a compromise of 3 SM BR in most areas noting that IFR conditions could develop quickly. For Thursday expecting a repeat of today with good coverage of TSRA in the afternoon/evening.
Extended Outlook...Threat of more widespread strong convection with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into the weekend with VFR dominating.
MARINE
Through Thursday: Southwest winds continue to prevail across the local coastal waters around offshore high pressure. Tightened gradient tomorrow afternoon will increase winds a bit, with SW winds sustained around 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Given the brief window and forecasted sustained winds below 25 kts, have held off on any SCA during this forecast package. Seas around 4 feet tonight through tomorrow, with a few 5 footers Thursday afternoon, primarily as a SSW fresh swell and a persisting weak E long period swell mixed in. Chance for thunderstorms to move off the coast over the waters late Thursday afternoon.
Thursday night through Monday: Southwest flow around 20 kt Thu night into Fri will become offshore late Fri evening as cold front moves across the waters.
Offshore flow 15-20 kt Fri night drops to around 10 kt Sat.
Winds briefly back to southwest later Sat but then a dry cold front moves across the waters Sat night. Winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt ahead of the front, but then drop back to 10 kt Sun and stay 10 kt or less through Mon. Offshore flow returns and persists into Sun night. Surface high to the north slowly shifts east early next week, with offshore flow veering to northeast late Sun night into Mon. Onshore flow sets up Mon with weak gradient allowing the sea breeze to be the main driver of wind direction.
Seas 3-5 ft Thu night and Fri starts to decrease Fri night as offshore flow sets up, ending up 2-4 ft daybreak Sat. Seas continue trending Sat, dropping to around 2 ft and staying around 2 ft through Mon. A weak easterly swell will persist through Monday, but the wind wave will be dominant. Initially it will be the southerly wind wave, but with offshore flow developing Fri night the wind wave will be more northerly.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 725 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A typical summer time pattern will lead to daily showers and thunderstorms through Friday, sparked by a series of shortwaves moving across the area. A cold front Friday night will bring much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of next week. Rain chances return for the middle of next week.
UPDATE
Quick update for pops mainly on a nowcast basis via radar. Added fog to a good part of the area based on what is now becoming a somewhat significant rainfall event is some areas.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A Severe Weather Watch has been issued for our inland counties (mainly along I-95) through 10pm this evening. Convective activity has been over-performing just east of the Appalachians this afternoon, and will continue moving east-southeastward ahead of a weak shortwave. How far into our CWA storms get is still questionable. Chances are best along I-95 with lower confidence closer to the coast where drier air lingers aloft (as seen by shallow diurnal cu field). MLCAPE values are already above 2000 J/kg, with MUCAPE over 3000. Any storms that do make it into our area have a decent chance of becoming severe, with large hail and strong winds main threat.
Well above normal low temps tonight around 70F with partly cloudy skies. A cluster of storms, possibly MCS, will be moving across the Carolinas overnight. Given time of day, any workover of the environment this evening, and storms moving over the mountains, not expecting the cluster/MCS to maintain strength as it reaches our area. Any rain that does move through overnight/early morning has low chance for thunder and even lower chance of any severe threat.
Yet another shortwave/storm cluster is progged to move across the Southeast tomorrow morning into the afternoon, this time with more of a focus for our northeast SC counties. Our entire CWA is in a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather again Thursday.
Confidence isn't the greatest - will have a better idea after any activity moves across through morning and if there is lingering cloud coverage early Thursday. Forecasted CAPE isn't as abundant as today, but still near 2000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. Bit more shear Thursday, with winds over 30 kts not far above the surface (which will also contribute to a breezy day). High temps Thursday near 90F.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Flat flow aloft will move a series of weak shortwaves across the area. The first moves overhead Thu night with any associated convection shifting offshore during the evening hours Thu. Post wave subsidence arrives Thu night, ending any convective threat for the remainder of the overnight. Some clearing Thu night, but still at least some cloud cover will hang around into Fri. Forecast soundings show the post wave subsidence and dry air very well, with precipitable water dropping under 1" Thu night.
Strong southwest flow Fri morning ramps up moisture, increasing precipitable water to near 1.7" for early afternoon. Surface based instability "only" peaks around 2k J/kg, due to cloud cover and the mid-level support, associated with the second shortwave, arriving around midday instead of around peak heating. Low level jet will be 35-40kt at 3k ft on Fri with LIs around -6. All of this suggests the potential for an isolated strong to severe storms in the area midday to early afternoon Fri. The big question remains down to the timing.
Several factors will need to come in line to warrant more than the current marginal risk. If timing were to be delayed a few hours and parameters instead came in line mid to late afternoon, the severe threat could be higher. Something to keep an eye on.
The second shortwave moves east of the area late Fri afternoon with a cold front crossing the area in the evening. A significant amount of cool/dry air moves in Fri night into Sat with temps dropping from above climo temps Thu night and Fri to near climo by Sat morning.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Much cooler and drier for the weekend and start of next week following the passage of a cold front late Fri. Weak troughing at 5h on Sat is reinforced by shortwave crossing the Mid-Atlantic Sat night into Sun. This feature helps drive a dry, secondary cold front across the area Sun morning. Front is dry because precipitable water drops under 0.50" Sat and remains below the 10th percentile, about 0.70", into Mon afternoon. Additionally, most of the dynamics with the shortwave pass north of the area. Moisture does start to increase late Mon as surface high slips off the coast and weak shortwave ridge at 5h shifts offshore. Increasing southwest flow, at the surface and aloft, ahead of southern stream shortwave pushes pwats over 1.8" Tue into Wed. Although forcing is limited Tue/Wed given the path of the shortwave Tue/Wed, instability, decreasing heights and abundant moisture will lead to elevated rain chances for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near to below climo through Wednesday.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Thunderstorms affecting inland sites currently although activity finally appears to be weakening ever so slightly. VFR conditions will return in a few hours but may be short lived as heavy rain areas may see quick fog development. However a second shortwave on the heels of this one may produce more showers and thunderstorms early Thursday negating the fog development. Used a compromise of 3 SM BR in most areas noting that IFR conditions could develop quickly. For Thursday expecting a repeat of today with good coverage of TSRA in the afternoon/evening.
Extended Outlook...Threat of more widespread strong convection with periodic flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri ahead of a strong CFP. High pressure to prevail late Fri into the weekend with VFR dominating.
MARINE
Through Thursday: Southwest winds continue to prevail across the local coastal waters around offshore high pressure. Tightened gradient tomorrow afternoon will increase winds a bit, with SW winds sustained around 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts possible for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Given the brief window and forecasted sustained winds below 25 kts, have held off on any SCA during this forecast package. Seas around 4 feet tonight through tomorrow, with a few 5 footers Thursday afternoon, primarily as a SSW fresh swell and a persisting weak E long period swell mixed in. Chance for thunderstorms to move off the coast over the waters late Thursday afternoon.
Thursday night through Monday: Southwest flow around 20 kt Thu night into Fri will become offshore late Fri evening as cold front moves across the waters.
Offshore flow 15-20 kt Fri night drops to around 10 kt Sat.
Winds briefly back to southwest later Sat but then a dry cold front moves across the waters Sat night. Winds briefly increase to 10-15 kt ahead of the front, but then drop back to 10 kt Sun and stay 10 kt or less through Mon. Offshore flow returns and persists into Sun night. Surface high to the north slowly shifts east early next week, with offshore flow veering to northeast late Sun night into Mon. Onshore flow sets up Mon with weak gradient allowing the sea breeze to be the main driver of wind direction.
Seas 3-5 ft Thu night and Fri starts to decrease Fri night as offshore flow sets up, ending up 2-4 ft daybreak Sat. Seas continue trending Sat, dropping to around 2 ft and staying around 2 ft through Mon. A weak easterly swell will persist through Monday, but the wind wave will be dominant. Initially it will be the southerly wind wave, but with offshore flow developing Fri night the wind wave will be more northerly.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41108 | 13 mi | 63 min | 75°F | 75°F | 4 ft | |||
| MBIN7 | 17 mi | 63 min | WSW 12G | 79°F | 29.77 | 71°F | ||
| 41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) | 22 mi | 85 min | SSW 18G | 76°F | 73°F | 29.76 | 73°F | |
| SSBN7 | 22 mi | 108 min | 73°F | 4 ft | ||||
| MBNN7 | 23 mi | 63 min | WSW 11G | 80°F | 29.75 | 70°F | ||
| WLON7 | 23 mi | 63 min | 80°F | 77°F | 29.77 | |||
| 41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 25 mi | 85 min | SSW 14G | 73°F | 70°F | 29.78 | 69°F | |
| 41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC | 25 mi | 37 min | 70°F | 3 ft | ||||
| JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC | 26 mi | 63 min | SSW 16G | 80°F | 68°F | 29.78 | ||
| 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy | 36 mi | 33 min | SW 14G | 74°F | 73°F | 29.83 | 72°F | |
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 38 mi | 85 min | SSW 16G | 74°F | 74°F | 29.80 | 71°F | |
| MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC | 48 mi | 63 min | SW 12G | 74°F | 72°F | 29.79 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSUT CAPE FEAR RGNL JETPORT/HOWIE FRANKLIN FLD,NC | 1 sm | 23 min | SW 08G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 70°F | 78% | 29.82 |
Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT 5.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EDT -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:49 PM EDT 6.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT 5.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM EDT -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:49 PM EDT 6.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.2 |
| 6 am |
| 3.5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.4 |
| 8 am |
| 4.9 |
| 9 am |
| 4.9 |
| 10 am |
| 4.1 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.5 |
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT 5.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:03 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT 5.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:03 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.9 |
| 8 am |
| 4.5 |
| 9 am |
| 4.5 |
| 10 am |
| 3.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.4 |
Wilmington, NC,
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