Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:03PM Friday December 4, 2020 7:05 PM EST (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 332 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.gale warning in effect from 9 pm est this evening through Saturday morning...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt early this evening, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers early, then showers with a slight chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers late.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 332 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Winds will increase substantially tonight as a strong cold front moves across the area and offshore. Improving winds and seas will develop Saturday afternoon into Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the west. Unsettled weather may develop again on Monday as low pressure forms offshore.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Island, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 042350 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 650 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage through evening as strengthening low pressure passes to the west. High pressure will bring a dry weekend along with a cooling trend. Rain returns Monday into Monday night as low pressure moves out of the Gulf of Mexico and turns up the coast. Dry and cool conditions return Tuesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A few light convergence showers starting to dot the area this afternoon and this coverage will increase in time through the evening. This activity is associated with a dynamic system moving across the Tennessee Valley which will quickly race across the Eastern Carolinas tonight.

Around 9 PM a decent line of convection is expected to form along Cape Fear extending north and south via more enhanced convergence due to an increase in winds. A second line with a strong cold front will move across just a bit later. SPC continues with a Marginal Risk for most areas. However guidance seems to like the idea of more robust lift with the earlier line with stronger winds with the latter feature.

Synoptic winds will be strong preceding and in the wake of the system. There could be some gusts briefly to around 40 MPH. Only the brief nature of the strongest of winds is precluding a wind advisory as an SPS for a couple of hours seems to be the better call. Saturday will be cool and breezy with highs in the 50s followed by a cool start Sunday with lows in the middle 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Transitional day Sun with one system exiting to the northeast as a southern stream system moves east across the Gulf Coast. Diving northern stream wave helps add some mid-level support, but appears too late to phase with the southern stream wave (which is starting to open up anyway). Stronger northern stream wave moves into the area late Mon and helps strengthen surface low well east of Hatteras.

Looks like precip with the event will come in two different shots. The first late Sun night/early Mon as the southern stream system opens up and a weak surface low passes off the coast. This low is then strengthen by the northeast stream shortwave Mon night, with the second chance for precip coming as the cold pool aloft moves overhead late Mon into Mon night. Do not think either event will result in significant QPF. At most looking for around a tenth well inland to around a quarter of an inch along the coast. Highs will run below climo with lows near to slightly below climo.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Mid-level low/trough just off the northern NC coast Tue morning quickly moves northeast during the day. Cold advection is a little delayed but should arrive by afternoon. Second shortwave moving in from the western Great Lakes Tue night will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air early Wed. Lack of moisture aloft prevents any precipitation. Uncertainty remains high with location of the second wave, but have high confidence it will pass dry. Mid-level ridge builds in behind the wave to end the week, but the timing, strength and duration of the 5h ridge also remain highly uncertain.

- No precipitation expected through Fri.

- Temperatures well below climo Tue through Wed return near climo Thu and Fri.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Showers starting to develop with VFR and isolated MVFR for some airports. Likely to continue with MVFR visibility and ceilings at times as showers become more widespread later tonight and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms still on track to approach from the west over the next 6 hours as a cold front approaches. High confidence in inland terminals dropping to IFR or low MVFR as the front pushes through. Gusty winds will also impact terminals up to 35 kts, and perhaps isolated pockets of 40 kts. Low chance of thunderstorm and associated CB development. Winds become NW on Saturday morning as skies begin to clear with a return to VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook . Strong post-frontal winds early Saturday morning could gust to 25+ knots. MVFR cloud bases and visibility may develop Monday as low pressure moves off the Southeast coast.

MARINE. Tonight through Saturday night: Gale warning in effect is the big story tonight with sustained winds of 30-35 knots for a few hours in and around 06 UTC. There will be higher gusts as well. All of this the result of a strong cold front moving across the waters around the same time. A strong northwest flow will develop in the front's wake but quickly diminish to 10-15 knots later Saturday. Normally winds of gale magnitude would equate seas into the double digits but the short duration will hold seas back a bit but still not too shabby at 7-10 feet. A short duration Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed just after the Gale Warning expires for residual higher seas.

Sunday through Wednesday: Biggest concern through Wed will be the complex system affecting the waters Sun night through Mon night. First round will be Sun night into Mon as weak low passes just east of the waters. The low starts to strengthen after moving northeast of the area, as a mid-level wave moves into the area Mon into Mon night. Strong offshore flow, mostly cold advection with some gradient enhancement late Mon night, will likely require a period of at least SCA headlines. Gales could be possible if cold advection is a little stronger than expected. Offshore component to winds will keep seas on the low end, mostly under 6 ft, but dominant wave periods are likely to be rather short. Conditions should begin improving later Tue into Wed. Offshore flow first weakens and then backs to west-southwest, allowing for a slow but steady reduction in seas through midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . SHK SHORT TERM . III LONG TERM . III AVIATION . MCK MARINE . ILM/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi65 min 63°F5 ft
MBIN7 17 mi65 min SW 5.1 G 7 64°F 1014.7 hPa (-2.3)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi80 min SW 2.9 62°F 1015 hPa60°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi57 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 61°F1015.8 hPa
WLON7 23 mi65 min 64°F 56°F1015.6 hPa (-2.2)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi57 min S 14 G 18 65°F 64°F1015.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi28 min 64°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi65 min S 12 G 14 66°F 63°F1015 hPa (-2.5)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 36 mi35 min S 19 G 25 71°F1015 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi57 min SSW 19 G 23 71°F 69°F1016.2 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 48 mi65 min 61°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC1 mi70 minS 7 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F58°F74%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6SW3CalmS3CalmS8S7
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW6W6W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:42 AM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:41 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:00 PM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.70.80.40.51.32.53.84.85.35.454.12.91.810.711.82.83.64.14.34.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:48 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:41 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:06 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.80.90.40.40.923.24.24.84.94.63.92.91.91.10.60.71.42.33.23.73.93.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.