Tuesday, June15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Island, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday June 15, 2021 12:19 AM EDT (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 11:37PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 910 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 910 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Tropical depression two will accelerate northeastward tonight, further away from the area waters. A cold front will move through the carolinas on Tuesday, pushing across the waters and offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for later this week with threat for showers returning during the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Island, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 150123 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 923 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated thunderstorms late today will become scattered on Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Rain chances drop off mid to late week with high pressure dominating. Warmer and more humid weather will return next weekend along with increased shower and thunderstorm chances into early next week.

UPDATE. Marine layer associated with the sea breeze has pushed well inland, likely at it's farthest inland extend. Any convection that reaches pushes into this sfc based shallow and stable marine layer will enter a diminishing trend. Thus, only very minor lowering POP tweaks applied for the remainder of this evening and into the overnight. the best (worst) convection should remain west of the ILM CWA this evening into the overnight b4 it demises. Very minor tweaks, if any, for temps tonight. Will continue to advertise the Marginal potential for SVR during Tue. Continued with potential for minor coastal flooding for the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Slow-progressing afternoon storms should devolve into a few lingering showers this evening as the leading edge of a weak cold front pushes into the area later this evening. Could see one or two damaging wind gusts right along the western edge of the CWA, but probability increases further west. Storms should become outflow- dominated as they approach the I-95 corridor and outside of heavy rainfall and lightning, threats should be limited. We may see one or two areas have a quick pulse along what's left of the sea breeze, but SW/W winds (around 5-10 knots) during the day make this difficult to narrow down a location as the sea breeze has been moderately pinned near the coast. Lingering showers come to an end late this evening before the residual atmospheric waves move eastward and toward the coast overnight, hi-res models show a secondary surge of activity after 03-05Z. This is likely due to a combination of the residual atmospheric disruption from the earlier convection along with a few weak vorticity centers tapping into an elevated mixed layer. Advancing trough will also serve to deepen lapse rates overnight. While we are not expecting any severe weather, areas along the coast could wake up to wet ground and a few rumbles of early-morning thunder. Overnight lows in the low 70s, slightly warmer east of US-701 into the 72-74 range.

Cold front progressing over the Appalachians on Monday night will stall over the Piedmont on Tuesday and bring a better chance of afternoon showers and storms in SW or W flow ahead of the boundary. Areas west of I-95 will likely stay dry as the front begins to push eastward, but confidence in the exact time of this movement and how clear the cutoff is low. Best chance solidly along the coast tomorrow with better upper-level winds near the base of an upper- level trough. Speed shear is likely to increase likelihood of afternoon severe weather and the potential exists for isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for some small hail. Cold front will push through the area Tuesday evening along with any lingering showers or storms. Cooler Tuesday night with some weak cold air advection and dew points dropping back down into Thu but latest HRRR doesn't really hold , mainly along the Piedmont trough and the resultant. Northwest winds will back to the southwest by mid afternoon. No fog expected tonight. More of a westerly flow on Tuesday, with scattered convection at the end of the forecast period.e 60s.

Impacts will remain limited from Tropical Depression Two which will quickly exit the area off to the northeast through Tuesday. Only direct concerns are related to the potential rip currents. At the moment, the generated swell is east around 2 feet at 8 seconds. This is good enough for Moderate Risk along east-facing NC beaches, but bathymetry west of Frying Pan shoals saves them from being particularly interested in this system. The rapid movement of such a weak system should also help to limit duration of impacts as what limited swell there is diminishes overnight into Tuesday morning. Expecting no influence from the system beyond late Tuesday or Wednesday and a return to Bermuda influence later this week.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will build down from the northwest through midweek as mid to upper trough swings offshore. The trough axis will move through best shortwave energy riding by later on Wed. There will be some passing clouds, but the column remains very dry with pcp water values down near an inch. Therefore very limited, if any chc of a stray shwr, mainly right along the NC coast with convergence along sea breeze boundary. Overall, will see increased subsidence and dry air, especially once mid to upper trough swings offshore by Wed eve. Probably will see more in the way of some flat cu in the aftn. Dewpoint temps will be down closer to 60 with overnight lows in the mid 60s Wed and Thurs night. High temps Wed and Thurs will be in the mid 80s most places.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure moves farther off the Carolina coast on Fri with a southerly return flow taking shape into the weekend. Ridging aloft should keep a cap on convection on Fri and Sat, but moisture will begin to stream northward from the Gulf. By Sat night into Sun, pcp water values will return back up near 2 inches with moisture deepening through the column with increasing flow out of the SW, as we tap into tropical moisture associated with possible tropical system in the western Gulf. The evolution and track of this low will be a big player on the potential for pcp into the latter half of the weekend. For now, it looks like there will be an increasing clouds and chc of pcp Sunday into Monday with some decent rainfall possible. A return of warmer and more humid weather will come by the weekend with overnight lows getting back up around 70 or so. Temps will warm with plenty of sunshine Fri and Sat, reaching 90 or above. Clouds and pcp will dampen high temps a bit into early next week, holding them in the 80s most places.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Isolated convection at best this evening and will indicate VCTS for FLO and LBT terminals. Sea breeze boundary pushing inland may flare up current convection and thus kept vcts possibility thru 03-04z. Pre-frontal trof pushes to the coast Tue morning with the actual CFP slated during the aftn inland and the evening at the coast. Tstorm dynamics a bit more favorable Tue given the mid-level trof axis reaching the Central/Eastern Carolinas. Have indicated a PROB30 across all terminals with tstorm gusts to 30-35 kt possible. The coastal terminals may have a better shot than the inland terminals for these gusts.

Extended Outlook . Mainly VFR thru the period. Brief bout of MVFR/IFR from isolated tstorms across all terminals ahead of a CFP Tue. Drying trend expected through the mid to late week period with only isolated convection at best.

MARINE. Through Tuesday night . Tropical Depression Two will begin to push offshore this evening into Tuesday. Low-amplitude back swell will generate easterly swell around 2 feet at 8-9 seconds through the evening. Given the weak disturbance and the quick movement of the disturbance, not expecting significant impacts. Winds ahead of a cold front and associated upper trough will remain southerly around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots tonight. Winds will become NW on Tuesday evening behind a progressing cold front and potentially a line of showers or storms. A few storms could become strong or severe and generate winds at or above 34 knots. Gradient weakens significantly into Wednesday as northerly winds develop at less than 10 knots.

Wednesday through Saturday . Weak low pressure along cold front off of the Carolina coast will drift off to the northeast through Wed. This will basically maintain a northerly flow with deep W-NW flow of dry air making its way. Winds will be more variable Wed into Thurs as low and front move away and weak high pressure migrates eastward, but will come around to the S as the high moves farther offshore late Thurs into Fri. Seas will basically remain between 2 and 4 ft with a minimal longer period E-SE swell mixing in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . DCH NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . DCH MARINE . RGZ/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi50 min 78°F3 ft
MBIN7 17 mi50 min WSW 6 G 9.9 77°F 1010.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi72 min WSW 14 G 19 78°F 79°F1012.9 hPa
SSBN7 22 mi63 min 78°F3 ft
MBNN7 23 mi50 min WSW 6 G 9.9 77°F 1011 hPa
WLON7 23 mi50 min 76°F 81°F1011.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi72 min WSW 14 G 18 77°F 77°F1011.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi43 min 77°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi50 min SSW 12 G 14 77°F 77°F1011 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 36 mi40 min SW 14 G 18 78°F 79°F1011.1 hPa73°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi72 min SSW 16 G 21 79°F 79°F1011.1 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 48 mi50 min 77°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC1 mi25 minSW 910.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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54.33.221.10.60.61.22.13.13.84.14.13.72.91.91.10.60.61.22.23.44.45

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:56 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.13.12.11.20.60.50.91.72.63.33.73.83.52.821.20.60.50.91.72.93.94.5

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