Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:39PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 2:29 AM EST (07:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1216 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Wed night..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 1216 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure builds into the region today. Low pressure will move off the florida coast tonight. A ridge of high pressure extends across the carolinas from the northeast Thursday, before a low pressure system affects the area late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 290531 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1231 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonable temperatures will dominate for the remainder of the week. Another quick moving system will bring a few showers to our southern zones tomorrow night. A stronger system and a better chance of rain Friday into Saturday with a warming trend to follow.

UPDATE. Under clear skies, and with a weak pressure gradient as high pressure settles in, winds have already decoupled over land. This will be the only tweak to the forecast with the evening update. Marine winds will remain 10 kt or less overnight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Clear skies as we head into tonight as this localized area of SC over the Cape Fear will likely wash out at or around sunset. Should any moisture increase occur late tonight it will be at the cirrus level as forecast soundings show near saturation with respect to ice starting at around 16kft. A seasonable day tomorrow as any dimming of sunshine will be fairly late in the day. Models have congealed with rain tomorrow night generally brushing our far southern zones. Very low/slight chance POPs will be carried across NC zones in deference to some ensemble members but these will likely be trimmed in future forecast iterations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Exiting disturbance on Thursday will leave only lingering cloud cover with clearing conditions throughout the day. There is no pronounced front with this system, so expect near-normal temperatures on Thursday with highs in the mid-50s, falling into the mid-30s overnight. Clouds begin to increase during the day on Friday as the next system approaches the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Models starting to come in agreement on the low pressure system expected to pass our area on Friday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing consistent timing on moisture moving into the area Friday evening and exiting by the early hours of Saturday morning. The differences lie with the strength of the system. The GFS continues to show a slightly stronger low which could evaluate QPF for Friday evening due to stronger upper-level forcing. The Euro shows consistent run-to-run forecasts with a slightly weaker low off of the Carolina coast. At the moment, will keep a chance of rain through early Saturday to compensate for future model shifts along with a blended QPF with around a half an inch of rain inland with near three quarters along the coast.

Following the low pressure system on Friday, a slight warming trend is expected through the long term. Upper level ridging and developing SFC high pressure will build from the south and west. Expect highs to be above normal during this time period with highs, in general, in the low to mid 60s by early next week. Clouds and a slight chance of rain move into the area on Tuesday as a weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico opens up in the presence of a larger low pressure system over the central US. At the moment, it looks like we will stay in the warm sector of any nearby cyclones, so we are likely to remain above normal with the addition of clouds and the possibility of a shower or two.

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Expect calm/light NE winds today under SKC.

Extended Outlook . Low chance for MVFR conditions associated with small rain chances tonight, as a disturbance moves eastward across SC. More showers possible late Friday, otherwise VFR expected.

MARINE. High pressure will stay centered to our north for the most part through Wednesday night while an area of low pressure crosses the Florida peninsula. The latter feature will lead to to a minor veer from NW to NE on Wednesday and could add about 5 kt of flow strength heading into Wednesday night. Any increase in wave heights that result will be very minor, possibly to the tune of 1 ft.

Elevated seas possible Friday into Saturday as a coastal low develops off the coast of the Carolinas. Winds 10-20 knots are likely to develop over the coastal waters with higher gusts. Forward speed of the system should limit the potential for significantly building seas, but we could possibly approach Small Craft conditions. As the low pressure exits Saturday evening into Sunday, high pressure builds in from the south. During this time, seas are likely to respond by increasing to 3-5 feet. As high pressure settles into the area, pressure gradient and winds relax bringing seas back to their typical state.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . 21 UPDATE . CRM NEAR TERM . mbB SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . MAS/43 MARINE . mbB/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi59 min 53°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi81 min W 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 53°F1017.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi49 min 53°F1 ft
WLON7 22 mi59 min 37°F 51°F1017 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi59 min W 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 53°F1016.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi81 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 47°F 53°F1017.8 hPa
41119 25 mi99 min 52°F1 ft
SSBN7 25 mi37 min 1 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi81 min WNW 3.9 G 9.7 49°F 60°F1016.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi39 min N 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 66°F2 ft1017.2 hPa35°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair35°F33°F94%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW3NW5N4N4N5N6NE6N8CalmNW4CalmS6S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3W3W6W5W6W8SW5SW6SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:46 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:11 PM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.51.70.90.40.20.61.52.43.23.73.93.73.12.21.30.60.20.411.92.83.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:24 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.21.30.60.20.41.22.23.13.84.14.13.62.81.80.90.30.30.81.72.73.43.83.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.