Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:09 AM EST (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 724 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 10 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
AMZ200 724 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal front will pull away to the north today. A cold front will approach the coast Tuesday afternoon, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 091136 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 636 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Warm front will lift farther north through today leaving above normal temperatures later today through Tuesday with limited, if any rainfall. A cold front will cross the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing additional rain and much cooler weather for mid week. Brief clearing and drying Thursday will be followed by a wet Gulf system bringing rain on Friday through Saturday morning. Drier and warmer weather will arrive for the latter half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A subtle mid-level shortwave making its way across the eastern Carolinas early this morning has pushed the surface trough and associated rainfall off to the northeast. Low clouds and fog will persist across the area through about 9 am. As of 07Z, visibilities have only dropped below 1/2 mile in a few locations, but if these become more widespread, a Dense Fog Advisory may be issued. Temperatures will hover in the mid 40s inland to around 50 across the coastal counties through daybreak, and may rise a few degrees near the coast as flow just of the surface becomes increasingly southerly.

Monday through Tuesday morning will remain dry, but with a good amount of mid/high clouds. Moisture will spread east ahead of a trough making its way across the southern plains on Tuesday, and this will bring just a slight chance of showers west of I-95 by late Tuesday afternoon. Deep south-southwesterly flow will propel temperatures well above climatology Monday and Tuesday. Highs will reach around 70 Monday, with widespread mid 70s away from coast on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will be moving through Tues evening with warm southerly flow abruptly turning to the north. Shallow cool air will advect in overnight Tues, but deep SW flow will continue aloft as deep mid to upper trough remains west of area. This will maintain low clouds and rain/drizzle into Wednesday with cool air mass settling in. Expect high temps reached in the morning, with cooling through the aftn leaving temps in the mid 30s by early Thurs morning. Steep inversion will be tough to break, but should see some clearing as mid to upper trough axis shifts off shore Wed night into early Thurs. This will bring deep layer drying with continued CAA and temps not even making it to 50 on Thurs with increasing sunshine.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Wedge in place Fri as coastal trough becomes more defined. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift as shallow dense cool air is overrun by increasing warm southerly flow. GFS is little quicker bringing back clouds and pcp on Fri, but overall expect rain to spread across the area from the south and should see periods of heavier rain late Fri into early Sat as warm front lifts north and potent shortwave and low pressure track up through the Southeast. The shortwave and low lifts off to the north late Sat into Sun with drying and warming on the back end. Pcp water values up to 1.65 inches Fri night will drop out in deep westerly flow Sat into Sun. Temps will reach into the 60s Fri and near 70 on Sat with 60s on Sunday with increasing sunshine through Sun. GFS is much warmer with overnight lows Thur night due to faster increase in clouds and pcp, while ECMWF has cooler temps, possibly below freezing in places, but drier. Therefore do not expect any fzn pcp issues early Fri.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Widespread fog and low clouds will continue over the next several hours producing LIFR/VLIFR conditions. Slow improvement will occur with an increasing pressure gradient late this morning as southerly winds 5-10 mph scour any remaining fog and low clouds. At the moment, there is very low confidence in the exact timing of when conditions improve with some guidance showing as early as 15Z and some as late as 22Z. Have trended with the later guidance for now given model difficulty in forecasting wedge scenarios.

Extended Outlook . IFR/LIFR conditions expected at times Sun night into Mon as a coastal disturbance passes. MVFR conditions also possible again Tuesday as the next cold front approaches.

MARINE. Winds light and variable across the waters early this morning will become southerly around 10 knots by late morning as high pressure slides east off the New England coast. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory for NC waters for now, as seas up to 6 ft persist beyond 10 nm. Flow will increase to around 15 kt out of the southwest on Tuesday between offshore high pressure and a surface cold front that will be crossing the Appalachians. Increasing warm advection over the nearshore waters will introduce the potential for sea fog to develop, and this will have to be monitored for the next couple of days.

Southerly flow ahead of cold front will keep seas between 3 and 5 ft Tues night. An abrupt shift to the north will accompany the cold front as it drops through the waters followed by a sharp increase in winds and seas through Wed aftn, possibly peaking near 6 to 9 ft in N-NE winds up around 25 kts or so as high pressure builds down from the north. Coastal front will become more defined on Fri as low pressure develops and moves up through the Southeast into the weekend. NE winds will veer around becoming on shore Fri night as coastal front pushes inland and north. Should see winds and seas drop a bit on Fri, but rise again in SW to W flow on the back end as it lifts north Fri night into Sat. Overall expect elevated winds and seas through much of this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. NC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252.



SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . CRM SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . 21 MARINE . RGZ/CRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi61 min E 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 55°F1021.9 hPa
41119 8 mi79 min 55°F3 ft
41108 23 mi69 min 56°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi69 min 48°F 53°F1020.8 hPa (-1.3)
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi69 min 49°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi69 min Calm G 1 49°F 56°F1020.2 hPa (-1.1)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi61 min NE 1.9 G 7.8 51°F 57°F1020.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi59 min 57°F5 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi49 min NE 3.9 G 7.8 64°F 74°F1020.8 hPa62°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi14 minN 00.25 miFog48°F47°F100%1021 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi16 minN 00.25 miFog49°F48°F97%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 04:22 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.71.834.14.754.63.9321.10.60.61.32.33.344.44.23.62.81.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:23 AM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:47 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:42 PM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:56 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.32.43.44.24.64.64.13.22.31.40.70.511.82.83.544.13.732.11.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.