Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:28PM Monday July 6, 2020 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers and tstms late this evening and overnight.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 311 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A broad surface low-pressure center over the florida panhandle will slowly lift northeast to the carolina coast by Wednesday and move north away from the coastal waters late Friday. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday and remain high through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 061903 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase especially tomorrow into Friday as low pressure approaches the area by midweek. The slow moving disturbance will exit the region late Friday while storm chances linger into the weekend due to a stalled frontal boundary.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. GOES-EAST satellite shows the low-pressure area over southern Georgia. This low has helped bring a couple of bands of showers and thunderstorms into South Carolina and to a lesser extent into southeast North Carolina with drier air aloft. The 12 UTC NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all show the low slowly wandering toward the Carolina coast and nearing the Cape Fear Wednesday night. The NAM is the strongest with most of the precipitation remaining off the coast, but the consensus is for heavier rain along the coast. The 12 UTC, GFS Ensemble probabilities have slightly lower on the probabilities of > 2? along the coast that the 06 UTC run. Therefore, the confidence that the low-pressure will pass over the area is high but confidence is low on the exact location for the heaviest rain. WPC shows the possibility of 2 to 4? of precipitation over the coastal counties with less inland. Currently, they are showing a marginal risk of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch may have to be issued later, but the confidence at this time is low.

With the cloud cover and rain, maximum temperatures are expected to be in the 82 to 84F range. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure over the Southeast US will slowly move northward toward the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday. A large shield of onshore flow and precipitation ahead of the low will advect a warm, tropical air mass over the area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms appear very likely on Wednesday, especially at peak heating. This system currently looks very disorganized in overall structure, so off and on precipitation is likely with heavy downpours having the potential to cause localized flooding. Shower chances continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday. On Thursday, we may see more scattered coverage in shower activity as the low ingests some slightly drier air. During the afternoon, peak heating should allow for the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, the low pressure will become absorbed in the upper-level flow ahead of a developing upper-level trough and race out of the area toward the northeast. With the departing low, a weak stationary front will stall over the area and be the focus for shower activity on Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak frontal boundary will remain in the area with the exit of the low pressure system on Friday. This will be the focus for thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and remain in the area through the weekend. During this time we will return to our typical summer pattern with highs around 90 and afternoon storms possible. The upper-level trough and stationary front will hang around through early next week as shower and thunderstorm chances linger.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Moisture will be on the increase today, especially over South Carolina where some convection will come onshore near the Myrtles. Isolated convection is expected over North Carolina later today. Tonight and Tuesday . tropical low pressure will move into the Carolinas, bring occasional heavy showers with brief IFR visibilities possible.

Extended Outlook . Low pressure to track across the Carolinas during the mid-week period, and eventually up the Eastern Seaboard across the NE States by the upcoming weekend. Expect widespread MVFR/IFR conditions late Tue night thru Thu night.

MARINE. With the low-pressure area slowly moving from southern Georgia this evening to the coastal Carolinas by early Wednesday, the winds will be from the south to south-southwest and running only 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet and increasing by sunrise Wednesday. The wavewatch is showing an east-southeast swell of 1.5 feet every 8 to 9 seconds.

Low pressure currently over central Georgia will slowly move NE toward the NC/SC coast by Wednesday. This low pressure may develop into a tropical low on Wednesday or Thursday, but given the position of the low (over land), any development would be limited to a spin off low and any impacts should be well east or northeast of the area. Winds will remain 10-15 knots out of the SW through the majority of the period with little to no significant swell. This disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms for the majority of the week as the low exits on Friday. A stalled front will remain in the area as the low progresses toward the North Atlantic next weekend bringing continued chances of thunderstorms. The stalled front may lead to an increase in the gradient winds next weekend as high pressure attempts to build from the west and an upper-level trough sits over the eastern US.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding is likely tonight along the lower Cape Fear River. Minor flooding is expected to occur between 10 PM and 1 AM. The current forecast is for the river level to peak at 5.8 feet around midnight.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . RH SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . 21/RH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi37 min S 12 G 16 83°F 83°F1018.2 hPa
41119 8 mi88 min 83°F2 ft
41108 23 mi75 min 84°F2 ft
WLON7 31 mi57 min 85°F 83°F1018.2 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi57 min 82°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi57 min SSE 7 G 8 83°F 83°F1018.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi37 min S 9.7 G 14 82°F 84°F1018.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi38 min 84°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi45 min S 12 G 14 81°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.1)72°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi50 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F74°F72%1018.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi52 minSE 7 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds85°F75°F72%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S4S6S4S5S5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E4SE6SE5SE8SE7SE7SE5S8
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2 days agoS4S3S3S4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmW4NW3W4NW5NW5NW6NW5N5W6NW5SW8SW7SW8SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     5.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.22.91.50.4-0.10.21.22.33.44.14.44.13.42.31.20.3-0.20.11.22.53.84.85.55.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Mon -- 03:29 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.320.8000.71.82.83.64.14.13.62.61.60.6-0.1-0.10.71.83.14.14.95.24.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.