Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:53PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:43 AM EDT (07:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 10:59AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 307 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 307 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure ridging will extend wsw toward the southeast u.s. Coast thruout this period. Over land, a trof across the central carolinas will drift toward the coast by the end of this week. A cold front will drop southward and stall in the vicinity of the area waters the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210146
afdilm
area forecast discussion... Cor
national weather service wilmington nc
944 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Bermuda high and piedmont trough setup will continue through
Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening. A front will move into the area Friday
night, stalling through the weekend or early next week. This
will maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
much of the upcoming period.

Update
Upper circulation over central carolinas lifting nne to bring
best rain chances west of i-95 through 2 am, transitioning to
isolated ocean showers or a TSTM toward daybreak along the
coast, and across CAPE fear. GOES cloud-top phase IR band
shows saturation aloft spreading south into the region and will
need to re-examine sky cover and overnight temperatures across
se nc, as cloud filling-in is presently occurring in this area.

Near term through Wednesday night
Typical summer-time conditions over the near term period, with
isolated to widely scattered aftn evening shras tstms and near
normal temps. An area of rain currently tracking through the mid
section of the fa will move off to the NE over the next few hours,
but coverage is quite limited attm, with the bulk of the activity
expected to stay west of the fa closer to an upper-level low.

Chances of rain diminish later this evening, with a slight uptick of
pops then for Wednesday morning as a mid-level vort MAX nears the
region. Low temps tonight range through the 70s.

A piedmont trough and weakly forcing environment again then for
Wednesday, with pops capped at 35% all areas. No severe weather or
flooding anticipated. High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s. Typical
nocturnal decrease of precip then into Wednesday night, with low
temps again in the 70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Weakening mid-level ridge over the western atlantic and bermuda high
will maintain deep west-southwest flow which will continue pumping
gulf moisture into the region. Deep moisture, diurnal instability
and the piedmont trough sea breeze will produce afternoon evening
convection each day. Not a lot of mid-level support as far as any
impressive shortwaves go, but cannot rule out some brief enhancement
from passage of a weak feature. However, timing and picking out
these features is difficult at best. Convection coverage increases
fri as piedmont trough is pushed to the coast by approaching cold
front. Front slowly moves into the area Fri night which may keep
convection going all night. Coverage and intensity is likely to
decrease a bit, but high chance pop at minimum is likely warranted.

High will be near to slightly above climo with lows running above
climo.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Front moving into the area Fri night ends up stalling in the area on
sat. Guidance is hinting that the front could push south Sun into
mon, but also shows mid-level ridging to the west and over the
bahamas. The mid-level pattern coupled with weak high pressure over
the northeast suggests the front may end up lingering in the area
into next week. Thus confidence beyond Sun is rather low.

-stalled front will support multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Sat and sun.

-potential for extended periods of heavy rain leading to
isolated urban flooding over the weekend.

-low confidence early next week with potential for good
coverage of storms Mon and tue.

-highs several degrees below climo this weekend moving closer to
climo Mon and tue. Lows near climo through tue.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
There is some convection that should stay west of flo, otherwise an
uneventful evening with warm southerly flow. Any fog stratus will be
brief and just before sunrise. Wednesday, another day with
convection forming along the resultant and the piedmont trough.

Should see a decent coverage of storms inland, enough for a vcts
mention.

Extended... MainlyVFR thru Thu with brief MVFR ifr periods each
day due to aftn evening convection and fog and or stratus
around daybreak. A cold front will drop south and stall across
the region Fri thru sat. This will lead to an increase in tsra
coverage with MVFR ifr conditions possible at any time of the
day or night.

Marine
Sub-small craft advisory conditions continue through mid week with
high pressure offshore and a typical piedmont trough inland. Expect
s SW winds of 10-15 kt, except 15-20 kt winds Wednesday evening as
the pressure gradient tightens up a bit. Seas 2-3 ft through
Wednesday, then 3-4 ft for Wednesday night. This will mainly consist
of a 4 second S SW 2-3 ft wind wave and a 10 second SE 1-2 ft
swell.

Bermuda high will linger off the coast into sat, maintaining 10
to 15 kt southwest flow. Speeds will be highest in the
afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front drops into the
area early Sat before stalling in the region through the
weekend. Speeds drop below 10 kt Sat and remain under 10 kt into
sun morning with highly variable direction. Mixed signals for
sun, right now forecast has northeast flow around 10 kt
developing, but this assumes the front pushes south of the
waters. The front could end up lingering in the area into the
middle of next week. If this happens, winds Sun would be lighter
with highly variable direction. Seas 3 to 4 ft Thu and Fri drop
to 2 ft or less over the weekend as winds drop below 10 kt.

South to southwest wind wave around 5 seconds will be the
dominant feature but some weak southeast swell around 10 seconds
will also be present.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Update... 8
near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 43
marine... Iii mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi35 min S 16 G 21 82°F 85°F1019 hPa
41119 8 mi53 min 85°F2 ft
41108 23 mi43 min 84°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi55 min 85°F1019.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi55 min 83°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi55 min SSW 6 G 7 84°F1018.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi35 min WSW 14 G 18 82°F 84°F1019 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi33 min 84°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi43 min SSW 12 G 14 83°F 83°F1019.1 hPa (-1.0)77°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi88 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1019.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi50 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F74%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6----------------------W6SW7SW6SW7W7SW7SW6S8--SW6SW4
1 day agoSW5SW7SW9
G14
------W8----W5W5NW3W5W5SW6S5S6SW8SW10S9SW9SW8SW8SW9
2 days agoS4S5CalmW3S8
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W9W8W7W3W4W5W7W8SW9W8SW11SW10SW11SW10SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.543.12.21.30.80.6123.24.14.64.74.33.62.71.91.311.21.92.93.8

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.343.42.51.60.90.60.81.52.63.54.24.44.33.832.21.51.11.11.52.43.33.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.