Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:27PM Friday January 17, 2020 11:27 AM EST (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:10AMMoonset 12:04PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 908 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers through the day.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 908 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The combination of strong high pressure and cold air will produce advisory conditions today. The high will slide offshore tonight and Saturday, resulting in a brief period of lighter winds. A cold front will cross the coast Sunday morning, followed by dry and cold high pressure through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 171407 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 907 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cool and breezy today as high pressure builds in. The high will slip offshore late tonight, bringing a brief weekend warmup ahead of another cold front. Showers Saturday night and early Sunday can be expected as the front approaches and moves through the area. Much colder temperatures will follow early next week, as air of Arctic origin dips into the Carolinas.

UPDATE. No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Temperatures curves likely to progress flatly over much of NE SC where extensive cirrus will squelch warming in a cold air advection regime. Current temperatures across the overcast areas are very near forecast maximum temperatures for today. Sunshine should bring SE NC temp curves up several degrees, but a struggle for max-T to crack 50 degrees. We should observe maximum 10-meter winds around 15z/10am, as mixing and a tight pressure gradient overlap. Dewpoints will drop into the upper teens by midday for may locals, with afternoon min-RH of 30-35 percent.

Saturday robust return flow sees T/Td taking big climbs, especially in afternoon as winds trend and veer toward S. Rain chances begin increase through the end of this period by late day Saturday, as a cold front nears. Rain chances best far inland zones, and along the immediate coast where convergence showers may scrape parts of the Cape Fear region. The pronounced but brief warming will bring max-T Saturday a few degrees above normal for middle January, joined by moderate SE-SSE breezes near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A warm and moist SW return flow ahead of approaching cold front Saturday night will maintain mild temps in the 50s with clouds and some pcp. Column never becomes fully saturated with pcp water around 1.2 inches. Expect low end QPF overnight Saturday with plenty of dry air moving in behind front on Sunday. Any lingering pcp into Sun morning will move off to the east. The deeper colder air will be delayed until Sun night with temps remaining on the warm side initially on Sunday with clearing skies through the day. CAA will come in force with 850 temps dropping from near 10c Sun aftn down to 0c by Mon morning. Temps will drop a good 20 to 30 degrees from aftn highs closer to 60 down to lows close to freezing most places.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Chilly air mass will take hold of the Carolinas early to mid week. CAA will continue to bring temps down below normal. Plenty of sunshine will only bring temps up into the 40s to near 50 with Tues, the coldest day with temps in the mid 40s most places. Temps will be down in the mid 20s Mon night and Tues night with best radiational cooling and coldest temps Tues night. As mid to upper trough digs down and swings across the Carolinas Mon night, would not be surprised to see some passing clouds with maybe a flurry or two around. The ECMWF is more aggressive with a cutoff low developing as it shifts off the coast Tues into Wed with pcp close enough to possibly affect the coast or nearby coastal waters. For now will keep with the dry and chilly air mass and no pcp through mid week. Air mass will begin to modify Wed night into Thurs as ridge builds over the Southeast and high shifts slowly eastward. Overall, will see a rebound toward normal or above normal temps Thurs into Fri, with any pcp holding off possibly until the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR this TAF cycle, gusty N winds after 14z, up to 24 kt, gusts easing below 18 kt after 20z today. This evening winds will diminish to NE 4-8 kt. Mainly cirrus this TAF period, may see light turbulence downstream of mountains, as weak standing waves develop. Great VSBY, no restrictions expected.

Extended Outlook . VFR. Showers possible Saturday night and Sunday, could lower ceilings to MVFR early Sunday.

MARINE. The cold air surge will be carried by N-NNE wind, raising 'Advisory' flags for small craft vessels today, due to gusts of 30 kt offshore. Improvements will get underway later today, as a diminishing wind trend begins, with advisory flags likely to drop after nightfall. The wave spectrum will see transition of wave-direction from NE today, veering to S Saturday afternoon, dominant wave periods mostly between 6-7 seconds.

S-SW return flow will increase through Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, This will push seas up quite rapidly Sat eve into SCA conditions Sat night into Sun as winds veer around to the SW-W and eventually NW. Small Craft conditions should last into Sun night as winds shift around to the north as plenty of cold and dry air rush over the waters as cold front moves off to the east through early next week. Sea fog also possible late Saturday into early Sunday before winds become westerly. Seas will diminish through Mon in diminishing northerly flow. Expect seas to drop below SCA thresholds by early Mon morning becoming 2 to 4 ft through Tues. Should see a spike in seas as shortwave passes across waters Tues into Wed.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.

SYNOPSIS . 08 UPDATE . MAS NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . MJC MARINE . MJC/RGZ/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi79 min NNE 18 G 23 42°F 56°F1038.3 hPa
41119 8 mi157 min 55°F1 ft
SSBN7 8 mi35 min 2 ft
41108 23 mi57 min 59°F5 ft
WLON7 31 mi57 min 46°F 56°F1037.8 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi57 min 44°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi57 min N 18 G 25 42°F 56°F1037.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi79 min NNE 21 G 27 43°F 57°F1037.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi47 min 57°F5 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi37 min NNE 25 G 31 47°F 69°F8 ft1036.7 hPa33°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi32 minNNE 11 G 2310.00 miFair44°F15°F32%1038.3 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi34 minNNE 1110.00 miFair48°F19°F33%1037.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW11SW8SW8W8SW5SW4S3SW4SW5W3W5SW3W4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:27 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 12:04 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:42 PM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.64.64.13.1210.30.10.61.62.83.74.44.54.13.22.21.10.3-0.10.10.92

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 AM EST     4.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 12:04 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.24.54.23.42.41.30.50.10.31.12.23.23.94.34.13.52.51.40.5-0.1-0.10.51.52.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.