Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holden Beach, NC

UPDATE
Forecast on track for clear and cold night. Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure and upper ridging currently in place with very dry air across the area. Mid to high clouds will begin to move in from the southwest late tonight ahead of a system developing in the northern Gulf. Timing of the clouds is almost near morning, meaning plenty of time for radiational cooling especially for southeast NC.
Have leaned towards cooler guidance for tonight's lows, with temps in the low to mid 20s for SE NC (potential for upper teens in the cold spots of northern Pender and Bladen) and near 27F for NE SC (except along the coast). For Monday, bulk of the moisture will remain far to our south, with a gradient of mostly cloudy skies for southern areas and partly cloudy skies northern. Have only kept minimal pops in far southern Williamsburg and Georgetown counties, but with lingering subsidence and low level dry air it'll be tough for any rain to develop. High temps Monday near 50F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A slug of mid level Gulf moisture should slide off the Carolina coast Monday evening. Any rain chances associated with this moisture should already be off the SC coast by nightfall, and dry weather is forecast for Monday night. A cold front filtering in behind the disturbance should shift winds to the north Monday night as low temperatures fall into the mid-upper 20s.

A shortwave moving across the Great Lakes Tuesday and off the Northeast coast Tuesday night will push an arctic cold front southward, likely moving off the Carolina coast Tuesday evening.
The GFS is much slower with its depiction of this front arriving than most other models, and may be an outlier with its late frontal timing. After a sunny day Tuesday with highs near 50, Tuesday night's lows should dip into the mid 20s with 10 mph north winds developing behind the front pushing wind chills into the upper teens by daybreak. Portions of southeastern North Carolina could approach the 15 degree wind chill threshold for a Cold Weather Advisory.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Arctic high pressure across the Ohio Valley Wednesday should weaken and shift south to the Gulf Coast Thursday. Dry offshore winds and well below normal temperatures will continue here across the Carolinas. Wednesday night appears to the coldest night of the week as -4C to -6C 850 mb temps and weakening low level winds should allow temps to fall into the lower 20s away from the beaches. We're not even halfway through climatological winter yet and Wilmington has had 4 nights in the lower 20s (23 or colder) which is the most in a single winter season since 2017-2018.

Shortwave energy cutting off from the flow aloft off the California coast Monday will spin for several days over the Pacific, but should get picked up again by a new shortwave digging south across the Rockies on Friday. Significant timing differences exist among the 12z operational model runs with how quickly the phased upper energy translates eastward, eventually leading to synoptic low development and Gulf moisture advection northward across the Southeast next weekend. The operational ECMWF together with a significant number of other model ensemble members show rain chances appearing as early as Friday night across the eastern Carolinas, then peaking Saturday into Saturday night. The GFS is at least 18 hours slower with its depiction of this system and doesn't show a peak in rain potential until Saturday night to Sunday. Confidence is obviously quite low given the timing differences observed in guidance. Assuming the 12z GFS is an outlier, I've broadly followed NBM blends for PoPs and temperatures late this weekend into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR. Calm and clear skies tonight with very light SW to W winds into Mon. Mainly mid level clouds spreading northward over the area between 14 and 17z with moisture increasing through the column from 6k to 18k ft with ceilings mainly 10 to 15k ft with some lowering to 4 to 7 kft by 18z.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

MARINE
Through Monday...Benign marine conditions through Monday with northwest winds less than 10 kts tonight increasing slightly to 10 kt westerlies Monday afternoon (gusts to 15 kt). Seas in the 1-2 ft range, primarily due to E swell with weak wind chop mixed in.

Monday night through Friday...Cold temperatures and offshore winds will dominate the weather much of this week. A cold front will move across the area Monday night, chasing a weak wave of low pressure moving east off the Florida East Coast. This should lead to a period of 10-15 knot N/NW winds through Tuesday. A second cold front will move offshore Tuesday night. Arctic air pouring offshore in its wake should produce winds near 20 knots and wind chills in the 20s Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the wind trajectories behind both of these fronts, seas should build to no greater than 3-4 feet within 20 miles of shore, but with short, choppy wave periods.

Arctic high pressure will weaken as it moves toward the East Coast Thursday into Friday with diminishing offshore winds expected.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.