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FXUS62 KCAE 020054 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 754 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warmer temperatures continue into the weekend. Rain chances increase today, and the risk will continue through the weekend as moisture levels rise across the region. Cooler temperatures and dry conditions can be expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Cloudy and quiet night is underway across the FA. The synoptic pattern is what we expected it to be, with high pressure retreating offshore as a surface low deepens and translates across the Ohio Valley. Deep trough forcing this continues to translate eastward out of the southwestern CONUS. Strong jet streak at 300 hPa precedes the trough axis, with values over 120 knots noted at the core of the jet streak over the Central Plains. All of this is leading to widespread cloud cover that will continue through the night across the FA. We saw the warm front ahead the aforementioned surface low move into the northern Midlands earlier, but this has since sunk a bit southward and is hung up about 1/3rd of the way through our area. This is important as it will dictate where low clouds likely develop later tonight, but also will dictate low temps to an extent. Not expecting lows to fall very far from where they are right now, with lows generally between 58F and 65F from north to south. Rain chances continue to look lower and lower through mid-morning tomorrow. Latest hi-res guidance has continued the trend of showing the current intense convection across the northern GOM persisting through the night and at least into mid Saturday morning. This is a classic setup for lower rain chances and totals, and that is likely the case here.
As such, have lowered PoPs through about 10a Saturday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Saturday and Saturday Night: The Synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged from the previous forecast package as an approaching trough produces strong southwesterly flow aloft.
Confidence in rain chances on Saturday and Saturday Night remain high but uncertainty continues regarding timing and rainfall amounts. A large determining factor will be the coverage and intensity of convection over the Florida Panhandle which often deprives our region of the best moisture when it develops in earnest. This likely explains the continued variance in our CAMs. While some of the guidance has an area of rainfall approaching Augusta around 12Z Saturday, others are slower arriving closer to 15Z. Regardless, anomalously high moisture combined with Synoptic forcing should promote light rain or at least showers for much of the daytime hours though there may be periodic breaks. Confidence with this forecast package is highest between 00Z and 06Z Sunday, especially in our western CWA. Rainfall amounts on Saturday are expected to range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches in the south and east to 0.25 to 0.75 inches north and west. With the region in the warm sector of an approaching storm system, above normal temperatures are expected despite the clouds and rain with forecast highs in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees. The temperatures will struggle to fall at night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday and Sunday Night: A cold front is expected to cross the FA during the daytime hours putting an end to our rain chances as drier air filters in behind it. Rain will likely be ongoing across much of the area at daybreak with it ending from west to east as the day goes on. An increasing pressure gradient may result in breezy conditions, especially behind the boundary.
Temperatures start off the day warm and highs should climb into the lower 70s before dropping off quickly at night as CAA increases. It'll be mostly cloudy and dry Sunday Night with clearing possible towards daybreak. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s to around 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The extended period opens with the passage of a potent shortwave to our north on Monday. This will be followed by a longwave trough setting up over the Eastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday, departing on Thursday. At the surface, weak high pressure will be building in on Monday followed by a dry frontal passage Tuesday or Tuesday Night and a stronger area of high pressure building in for the remainder of the long term. Winds may be breezy at times early next week, particularly on Monday and Wednesday afternoons when the pressure gradient and CAA will likely be the strongest. In terms of temperatures, this pattern suggests a cooling trend during the first half of the week as above normal temperatures on Monday fall to near normal values Tuesday and below normal readings Wednesday and Thursday. PWATs are expected to remain low through the period meaning we will likely be dry through the extended.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions expected through around 06z then variable conditions expected thereafter.

A warm front lifted north of the Columbia area this afternoon but has retreated back south this evening which will set the stage for potential stratus development on the cool side of the boundary later tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper trough over the Plains will support moisture transport into the region and isentropic lift increases through the period which will allow cigs to thicken and lower through the period. A few isolated showers possible at CAE/CUB through 03z or so but should be brief and not expected much impact so not included.

Higher confidence in MVFR/IFR restrictions at CAE/CUB/OGB after 06z with lower confidence at AGS/DNL due to location of the frontal boundary. There is also a chance of low visibilities as well north of the front at CAE/CUB/OGB but confidence is limited in that but could see vsbys down to 1SM or lower for a period of time before dawn.

Expect most of the rain to hold off until Saturday afternoon although there could be some scattered showers moving into the area after 15z. Expect cigs to crash late afternoon as more widespread rain arrives after 21z and vsbys also lower in the rain. Winds will generally be light less than 5 knots through the period, from the east north of the front and from the south to southeast south of the front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through much of the weekend. Rainfall is expected to continue Saturday night into Sunday until a cold front crosses the region.
Prevailing VFR conditions develop late Sunday or Sunday Night behind the front lasting into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Fri -- 12:47 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:03 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:09 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:27 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Canaday Landing
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Fri -- 02:29 AM EST     0.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:47 PM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:32 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaday Landing, south of, Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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