Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carolina Shores, NC

UPDATE
No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
High pressure will shift off of the North Carolina coast tonight with center settling slowly south and east through Tues. This will produce a shift in winds from the E-NE to the SE-S with a return of dewpoints into the 50s. Airmass in general will remain very dry with pcp water values remaining less than an inch. Temps will drop off tonight once again as winds die down after sunset and skies remain clear. The decent radiational cooling should produce temps down around 50 most places. Highs on Tues will inch up a couple of degrees from today with most places inland of the beaches topping 80 degrees.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure centered offshore through the period at the surface.
In the mid levels an upper level ridge will be increasing in amplitude overhead. This will mean rain-free conditions and temperatures that remain elevated above seasonable norms. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 60s giving a more typical late April feel.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Temperatures remain well above normal on Thursday though the mid level ridge will be progressing east of the area as a series of upper troughs approach from the west. The first will dampen out and ride above the offshore ridge. The second will dive into the Plains with more energy driving a cold front into the Carolinas by Friday.
The weak vorticity left behind by the lead wave could touch off some convection but coverage looks to only support rain chances on the slight chance/chance range. Better rain chances are slated for FROPA which now looks like either Friday night or early Saturday. More seasonable air builds Saturday night allowing for a return of 50s after several nights in the low to mid 60s. The rest of the period looks seasonable with NW flow aloft and post-frontal surface high pressure building in.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Outside of a low probability of MVFR visibility in ground fog at KCRE prior to 12z, there is high confidence in VFR conditions persisting over the next 24 hours.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR is possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning in ground fog.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...High pressure will shift off of the North Carolina coast tonight with center settling slowly south and east through Tues. This will produce a shift in winds from the E-NE to the SE-S. Winds should remain 10 kts or less with a slight uptick in afternoon sea breeze near shore. Seas will hold in 2 to 3 ft range. A minor east to southeast swell will mix in.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure passing by to our north early in the period takes up a center offshore remaining west of Bermuda. HIgh keeps the wind a bit in check as a further east center/more classic Bermuda High can bring a tighter gradient locally-at this time winds and seas will remain sub-criteria for any headlines. A small increase in both (still no headlines though) is expected Friday ahead of a cold front that may not cross the waters until early Saturday. The entire weekend will feature veering winds as the post-frontal high builds into much of the eastern U.S.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Large tidal ranges associated with this month's New Moon should create another night of minor coastal flooding along the beaches of SE NC and NE SC as well as along the lower Cape Fear River during high tide this evening. Additional minor coastal flooding likely Tue night, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River and SC coast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.