Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marina del Rey, CA

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...30/739 PM.

***UPDATE***

Ended up hoisting a short lived wind advisory covering the southwestern Santa Barbara coast for this evening through late tonight. Sundowner winds are gusting up to 50 mph near Gaviota and the Refugio Pass. Winds are expected to rapidly drop off in speed after midnight, thus not expecting any extension for the wind advisory tonight. Gusty but sub-advisory level northerly wind gusts are expected through the northern Ventura County mountains, the I-5 Corridor, and the Antelope Valley (especially western portions) through later tonight.

A fairly deep marine layer is expected to make its return south of Point Conception tonight. While gusty Sundowners will likely keep low clouds out of the Santa Barbara Channel and adjacent coastlines, a eddy will bring the potential for low clouds to surge into the coasts of Ventura and southern Santa Barbara counties towards the morning hours. A shallower marine layer has already made its way to the west coast of Santa Barbara County, likely expanding to the north overnight.

Otherwise, low impact weather will continue through the next couple of days.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very low impact weather for southwest California expected through at least Saturday as weak high pressure develops aloft. The only potential weather issue may be some gusty northerly winds across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening which may require a low end wind advisory between 6pm and around midnight.

Otherwise, very quiet weather. Marine layer stratus returned Thursday to coast and some valleys and is expected to come back again tonight and likely through the weekend. But most areas will clear by afternoon with temperatures within a few degrees of normal, except 5-10 degrees above normal in the mountains and across the Antelope Valley.

There will be several degrees of cooling Sunday (more so inland)
as another cut off low drops south along the West coast causing onshore flow to increase and the marine layer to deepen. There are still a few ensemble solutions indicating some drizzle or very light rain Sunday, but chances are slightly higher Monday and Tuesday. The increasing onshore flow Sunday will produce gusty west to southwest winds across the interior, especially the Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/152 PM.

Models are in reasonable agreement showing the cut off low just off the Central Coast late Sunday and Monday, then turning inland near the LA/Orange County border Tuesday. PW's with this system peak around 0.7" so moisture is very limited. And there is very little forcing either so if there are any showers between late Sunday and Tuesday they will be very light and in most areas won't even register .01 in the rain gauge. Best chances for that would be southeastern LA County and the Central Coast where high end totals could reach 0.10-0.20".

Temperatures during this period will mostly be in the 60s, except some low 70s in the warmer valleys.

The upper low is finally expected to exit the region Tuesday night, leading to 4-8 degrees of warming both Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION
30/2250Z.

At 2143Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4500 feet with a temp of 18 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For coastal and coastal valley sites, moderate confidence in TAFs as timing of flight category changes could be off +/- 3 hours and min flight cats may be off by 1 cat. 20% chance for LIFR conds at KSMX and KSBP over night.
30% chance for IFR to MVFR cigs at KPRB after 10Z. Lowest confidence in KSBA, as there is a 40% chance for no low clouds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be off +/- 3 hours. 40% chance for brief OVC008-009 at arrival of cigs. 30% chance east wind component reaches 8 kt between 10Z-18Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be off +/- 3 hours. 40% chance for cigs to arrive above OVC010.

MARINE
30/121 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue through tonight.
For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and evening. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From late this afternoon through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).