Varnam, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Varnam, NC

June 24, 2024 8:47 AM EDT (12:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 10:09 PM   Moonset 7:28 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 658 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon - .

Today - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.

Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.

Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 658 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A weak front will approach the area today with a line of showers and Thunderstorms. Isolated severe weather is possible. Offshore winds today will shift on Tuesday as atlantic high pressure brings back southerly flow for the latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 241100 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 700 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather will continue. Strong thunderstorms today will be caused by a front as it sinks into the area, the boundary then to lift back to the north Tuesday. Another boundary and upper disturbance will bring good rain chances Thursday.

UPDATE
No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Breezy onshore flow this morning will become westerly this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Transitional flow from onshore to offshore will expand hot temperatures observed yesterday toward the coast, but should help dew points inland. Inland areas reached the upper 90s to near 100 yesterday and low level thicknesses indicate that this is possible again today, even near the coast. Dew points in the upper 70s this morning will mix into the low 70s along the coast and upper 60s inland. Heat indices will be in excess of 100 degrees today. Sensitive groups and those performing strenuous outdoor activity should take extra precaution.

A cold front currently analyzed over central Tennessee will push through the western Carolinas this morning with the help of an upper level trough. The front will reach the central Carolinas and struggle to push farther east during the day. The surface trough ahead of the front and the development of showers and storms should carry activity through the afternoon via a surface cold pool, steepening mid level lapse rates, and abundant surface heating.

Significantly drier air aloft associated with the trough will ride over the hot and humid boundary layer as the convective forcing pushes eastward. While some mixing of the dry air may prove to be challenging inland, the majority of the area will have enough BL heat and humidity to generate deep instability. Dry air mixing into strong updrafts along with modest shear could lead to the development of isolated severe weather in strong wind gusts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop with the best chance of storms along and east of I-95 during the early afternoon.

The stalled cold front will keep most of the area east of I-95 in a humid air mass overnight. Temperatures in the mid to low 70s will offer very little relief.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The main story through the period will be the above normal temperatures as precipitation will be somewhat hard to come by especially Tuesday. This is because of a weak boundary that slides off to our south. It won't do much to temper the heat but slightly lower dewpoints will be responsible for keeping showers/storms isolated at best (better chances S vs. N) and also likely preclude a heat advisory. The wet looking GFS is an outlier and also seemingly contradicting its still relatively dry forecast soundings.

The weakening boundary lifts back to our north on Wednesday. Surface dewpoints will recover to the point where HI values could require an advisory. THe mid and upper levels however remain quite dry with PW values barely exceeding 1.0" keeping POPs capped in the 20-30 range.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms become widespread on Thursday as the next weak shortwave moves through. This mid level feature will benefit from low level ascent offered by a cold front with either a surface trough or weakly closed low. With such widespread activity it seems plausible that guidance may be a few degrees too warm and so a few were shaved off, yet another day of above normal expected (no advisory though). With the boundary still in the vicinity on Friday the weather should remain unsettled, just not to the extent of Thursday. Mid level ridging should turn the heat back up over the weekend while suppressing thunderstorm coverage to typical values of about 30.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR along the coast this morning will push offshore by noon with VFR thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late morning into early afternoon as heat and humidity combine for quick convective initiation this afternoon. Heavy rain is possible at times with a strong wind gust or two in the stronger storms. VFR tonight with a slight chance of low clouds along the coast, currently thinking is that VFR will dominate.

Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog.

MARINE
Through Tonight... Remaining breezy this morning ahead of a cold front with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end just after sunrise. Winds turn SW this afternoon and weaken slightly, enough to see an end to SCA conditions. The cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over land and this line of storms will impact the nearshore waters by late afternoon into this evening. Strong wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms which is expected to persist over the warm waters overnight.
Variable winds in the presence of showers and thunderstorms should become easterly on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday... Post-frontal onshore flow Tuesday will shorten wave periods a bit as seas adjust to the long period of southerly winds leading up to the wind shift. Veering already slated for Tuesday night already as boundary lifts back to the north and these winds will stay quite light as the main area of high pressure offshore is shunted eastward. Another boundary sinks into the area Thursday into Friday. The still very light winds could acquire some variability but in the absence of any swell energy seas will remain close to the normal 2-3 ft range, occasionally higher due to periods of onshore flow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi99 minSW 18G23 82°F 82°F29.8280°F
SSBN7 14 mi72 min 82°F5 ft
41108 21 mi47 min 82°F 81°F7 ft
MBIN7 23 mi53 minWSW 11G21 82°F 29.8279°F
WLON7 25 mi47 min 83°F 83°F29.80
MBNN7 28 mi47 minWSW 11G18 83°F 29.8379°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi47 minSW 16G20 82°F 81°F29.82
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi99 minSW 19G23 81°F 80°F29.8376°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi51 min 80°F5 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi47 minSW 12G15 83°F 83°F29.84
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi37 minSW 21G27 82°F 82°F29.8678°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi99 minSSW 19G25 82°F 81°F29.8576°F


Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSUT CAPE FEAR RGNL JETPORT/HOWIE FRANKLIN FLD,NC 11 sm17 minSW 12G197 smMostly Cloudy82°F77°F84%29.85
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Wind History graph: SUT
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Tide / Current for Holden Beach, North Carolina
   
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Holden Beach
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Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:49 PM EDT     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:04 PM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
3.1
1
am
1.7
2
am
0.4
3
am
-0.5
4
am
-0.7
5
am
-0.3
6
am
0.8
7
am
2.2
8
am
3.4
9
am
4.1
10
am
4.2
11
am
3.6
12
pm
2.5
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
-0.8
4
pm
-1
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
3.9
9
pm
5
10
pm
5.4
11
pm
5.1


Tide / Current for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
4.9
1
am
3.9
2
am
2.7
3
am
1.4
4
am
0.5
5
am
0
6
am
0.3
7
am
1.3
8
am
2.5
9
am
3.5
10
am
4.1
11
am
4.3
12
pm
3.9
1
pm
3.1
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
1
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
-0.1
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
2.8
9
pm
4.1
10
pm
5
11
pm
5.5


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Wilmington, NC,




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