Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Varnam, NC

UPDATE
Aviation discussion updated below for 06z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Scattered pulse convection across the area this afternoon, developing along westward propagating sea breeze and inland with daytime heating, will die down after sunset. Despite plenty of high clouds overnight, could see another morning of low stratus and patchy fog inland early Friday due to ample low-level moisture advection. Low pops along the coast during early morning hours in case any offshore storms move near land. Low 70s and very muggy conditions for Friday morning.

Deep ridging continues to persist offshore through Friday, with PWATs increasing around west side of the Bermuda high to over 2" leading to greater cloud coverage. There will be adequate instability (MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg), and perhaps a few impulses aloft, to aid in scattered storms developing in the afternoon along sea breeze and inland. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather will continue through the period, though most of the activity will tend to favor Saturday afternoon when instability is maxed. Lapse rates remain poor enough to preclude any organized severe weather but our 2"+ PW values could support the stray wet microburst, just as the past few afternoons have offered. Daytime highs will be near their seasonable norms whereas nighttime lows will run high due to the elevated dewpoints. To that end both nights could support shallow areas of fog.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Slightly steeper lapse rates may develop Sunday leading to greater instability than Saturday. This is in response to a dampening shortwave passing by to our north. Shear magnitude and direction still not overly impressive so severe weather potential appears limited to aforementioned isolated wet downbursts. PW remains very high on Monday but we once again lose our improved lapse rates as the flat level ridging is maintained to our south. Guidance tapers POPs just blow likely thresholds. Late period POPs will also be closer to climatology as mid level westerly flow is finally able to bring some drying. Nighttime lows will show little variation through the period while late period highs start to trend upward in part due to the lessened storm coverage and low level WSW flow warms 850mb temperatures to 20C.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Caveats to this include some early morning stratus possible, mainly inland terminals followed by mainly aftn convection typical of summertime.
May see brief sub-VFR in thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, greater chance inland terminals after 18z. Winds will be S-SW less than 10 kts for the most part.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent thunderstorms are possible through Monday.

MARINE
Through Friday...Bermuda high pressure will persist off to the east for a while longer, leading to prevailing southerly winds around 10- 15 kts through Friday, with a bit of an enhancement near the coast with afternoon sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft primarily due to SSE swell around the offshore high pressure. Widely scattered thunderstorms forecasted over coastal waters overnight/early Friday morning, with a stray storm possibly moving offshore Friday afternoon/evening.

Friday night through Tuesday... For most of the period will be settled into a normal pattern for June. Bermuda high pressure will keep flow out of the southwest and generally in the 10-15kt range.
Seas of 3-4ft will be comprised of the SW wind wave and a SE swell.
If there is a subtle change it comes Tuesday at which time a minor veer in the flow could cut down on the swell energy component.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.