Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 2, 2020 5:24 PM EDT (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 438 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Through 7 pm..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt, becoming N late. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 438 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold front will move south through south carolina this evening and will stall across georgia on Friday. High pressure will build south across the carolinas through the july 4th weekend. The front should return north early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 021905 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 305 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. Weak high pressure will build in from the north for the weekend with lower chances of rainfall. Unsettled conditions will return for the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A weak cold front is dipping south across South Carolina this afternoon. Thunderstorms have developed along the front, particularly near the coast where the synoptic front intersects today's seabreeze boundary. Surface based CAPE over 2500 J/kg along and ahead of the front should ensure convection will continue through sunset while slipping slowly southward. An unimpressive cumulus field across North Carolina on visible satellite imagery confirms what model K-index analysis shows with drier and more stable air advecting in from the north. This should give us a dry overnight period under mainly clear skies and lows around 70 degrees.

Precipitable water values will fall from 1.8 to 1.2 inches on Friday mainly due to decreasing vertical depth of moisture. Even with temps Friday afternoon expected to exceed 90 degrees inland it's doubtful any deep convection will develop due to increasingly warm, dry conditions aloft. Today's front should stall out across Georgia with a very weak ridge building across the Carolinas Friday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A dry northwest flow will continue for most of Saturday but late in the day guidance is showing some convection associated with a back door cold front. Will maintain the low chance pops with this feature. For Sunday another round of convection is expected as whats left of the feature pushes south and west somewhat similar to what is transpiring today. As usual this time of year severe threat is always in play but due to lack of shear rainfall is probably more of a concern. The only trend in temperatures is one of slightly cooler readings Sunday in what can be attributed to the front and a weaker mid level downslope flow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As would be expected in the depths of summer not a lot of forcing expected through the period. The chances of thunderstorms increase in time however as a broad mid level low or weakness if you will will tend to meander toward the southeast from the lower Mississippi Valley. Pops reflect this evolution with higher values during the daytime hours. As for temperatures, you should know the story by now, highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the steamy 70s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Scattered showers and t-storms are developing mainly along a cold front moving slowly southward across northern South Carolina, and along the seabreeze front moving inland from the beaches. At Florence (KFLO) the front will be moving south across the airport around 18Z, with convective potential diminishing later in the day. At the two Myrtle Beach airports (KMYR and KCRE) the seabreeze front has moved through, however storms developing just inland could dip back across the front toward the coast, and temporary thunderstorm conditions are forecast here.

Convection will tend to diminish after sunset. Wouldn't be surprised to see patchy fog again before sunrise Friday, most of it MVFR, with a few pockets of IFR. Fog clears out not long after sunrise, leaving sunny skies and VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook . Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday through the upcoming weekend. Stormy afternoon and evenings possible into early next week. Early morning MVFR/IFR conditions possible from fog and low stratus.

MARINE. A cold front is slipping southward along the South Carolina coastline and should move into Georgia by late tonight. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms developing where this front intersects this afternoon's seabreeze may continue through the evening hours south of Cape Fear. Light northeast winds will overspread the area from north to south behind the front tonight, continuing into Friday morning. A small area of high pressure moving off the Georgia and South Carolina coast Friday will veer directions southeasterly during the afternoon, then southwesterly Friday night, with speeds remaining light. Seas should average 2 feet mainly in a 9-second southeast swell.

A weak pressure pattern will lead to light winds across the waters basically through the short and long term periods. The sea breeze seems to have the most influence with a southeast flow much of the time. Wind speeds will be ten knots or less as well. Significant seas lacking any significant swell component will hover around two feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . SHK NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . TRA/IGB MARINE . TRA/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41119 14 mi68 min 82°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi77 min ESE 5.8 G 12 79°F 82°F1011.6 hPa
41108 21 mi55 min 82°F2 ft
WLON7 25 mi55 min 84°F 80°F1011.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi55 min 82°F 82°F1011.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi77 min E 9.7 G 14 80°F 83°F1011.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi48 min 83°F2 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi55 min 78°F
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi35 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 81°F 82°F2 ft1010.6 hPa73°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi77 min ENE 7.8 G 12 80°F 83°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi30 minESE 410.00 miFair84°F73°F71%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW6SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3E5E4CalmNW4SE3E6
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S5S5S6S5
2 days agoW6W5W3CalmW4NW3NW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmS5S5S6CalmCalmN5NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:39 AM EDT     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.212.43.54.24.33.82.61.2-0.2-1.1-1.2-0.50.82.43.95.15.65.44.531.3-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:51 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.71.82.93.94.44.43.82.91.80.7-0.1-0.40.21.42.84.25.25.75.54.83.62.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.