Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 5:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1003 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1003 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Moderate sw winds are expected ahead of a cold front. The cold front will approach the coast Tuesday, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas Thursday into Friday. Gradual improvement into the weekend is expected, as the high moves offshore and sw winds return.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 100540 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. As a warm front lifts north, a pronounced warming trend will be felt through Tuesday. A cold front early Wednesday will bring rain, followed by cooler air through mid week. Brief clearing and drying Thursday will be followed by a wet Gulf system Friday into Saturday. A drying trend is expected next Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE. No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Temperatures curves tonight nearly flat-line as warm air advection and diurnal cooling nearly nullify one other, 57-64 for min-T and in some areas, this may occur early in the night as we may observe even slight rises in temperatures after 6z/1am. Late afternoon sun will impact minimum temps, but a slight drop after dark expected.

Dry mid-level air and lack of notable lift about the area will keep rain chances below 10 percent much of this period, until Tuesday night, as a cold front approaches the coast. The balmy flow and elevated dewpoints leading up to this, may induce patchy sea fog along our coastal land zones, mostly favored south of Cape Fear from Santee River to Southport.

The warm air advection will be strong enough tuesday to list a few record highs for December 10th: ILM - 78 in 2007, FLO - 78 in 2007, and MYR 81 in 1943. Our forecast temps do not quite reach these values, but will approach. The 81 at CRE will be very difficult given chilly SSTs and SSW winds in afternoon.

The front to bring light and moderate rain Tuesday night, and CAPE values surface and aloft warrant a slight chance of a TSTM ahead of the front Tuesday night and early Wednesday. System rain total through daybreak Wednesday are slated to be a light wetting, a 0.07- 0.18" range for most areas. Locally higher amount likely since convective pcpn will play a role. Being that the instability is low however, the severe threat will remain low, as poor lapse aloft prevail and limited wind shear during frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Back to reality when it comes to temperatures this period. High pressure builds into the Northeastern U.S. putting the coastal Carolinas on its seasonably cool southern edge. Forecast soundings show saturation beneath the increasingly strong temperature inversion so no sunshine expected. Some dry air could lead to some late night clearing well inland. A few light showers could linger into the morning hours along the coast. For the remainder of Wednesday non-measurable rain appears more likely than measurable and POPs have been lowered after 18Z especially inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Chilly high pressure ridge hangs on Thursday and starts getting overrun with warm and moist air. Cloud cover will be on the increase but rain should hold off given lack of deep layer forcing. Not so on Friday as cyclonic flow and height falls impinge from the east and a surface wave slides up the coast. Given the depth of the lift the area could see semi-appreciable rainfall. Moisture stays locked in on Saturday but some dry air advects into the area on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly elevated above climatology for much of the period other than Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Moderate southwesterly flow will continue overnight, inhibiting radiational fog development. Potential for sea fog development exists, however wind trajectories should prevent coastal terminals from being significantly impacted. KLTX VWP is indicating 1-2 kft winds of 35 knots, and with surface wind speeds expected to diminish to 5-7 kts over the next few hours, have decided to keep LLWS in through the morning hours.

Extended Outlook . MVFR conditions possible tonight as the next cold front approaches and moves through the area. Another round of MVFR is possible Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas.

MARINE. Marine visibility has improved and the marine dense fog advisory will be allowed to expire at 3 pm. The moist and mild wind flow over the waters ahead of the cold front, could produce additional bouts of sea fog tonight and Tuesday, most probable from Santee River to Murrells Inlet to Southport. A small craft advisory will remain in place north of Cape Fear for 6 ft seas offshore. Sea spectrum will have SE waves 3-5 feet every 8-9, and SSW waves 1-2 feet every 5-6 seconds. Marine showers will converge on the waters by Tuesday night as a cold front approaches, bring rain, and likely SCA conditions into Wednesday as strong high pressure builds in. Latest WW3 data pointing to 9-10 feet at Frying Pan Shoals and the outer waters on Wednesday.

High pressure that starts building behind cold front Wednesday will yield a long period of Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas as moderately strong N to NE gradient winds are maintained. The gradient may ease on Friday as a wave of low pressure rides up the coast but the turn to a more onshore wind direction will likely keep advisory-worthy 6 ft seas in the area.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ250.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MAS NEAR TERM . 08 SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . CRM MARINE . 08/MBB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41119 14 mi28 min 55°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi70 min WSW 3.9 G 7.8 56°F 55°F1018.2 hPa
41108 21 mi48 min 56°F4 ft
WLON7 25 mi48 min 67°F 53°F1017.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi48 min SSW 12 G 12 62°F 56°F1016.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi70 min SW 7.8 G 12 60°F 57°F1017.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi38 min 57°F4 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi48 min 58°F
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi28 min SW 16 G 19 75°F 71°F5 ft1018 hPa69°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi70 min SW 9.7 G 14 66°F 65°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi23 minSSW 67.00 miFair62°F62°F99%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S7SW5SW4SW5SW3S4S5SW4SW5
1 day agoN6N8N8N7N7N8N8N7N10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4N7N5N8NE6NE8NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:21 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM EST     5.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:02 PM EST     4.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.41.62.94.14.854.53.41.90.6-0.3-0.5-0.10.71.833.84.23.82.91.60.4-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:36 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:36 AM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:13 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:55 PM EST     4.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.92.13.44.55.15.14.73.82.81.70.80.40.61.42.63.54.24.44.13.42.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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