Sunrise 7:03 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 12:36 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS62 KFFC 161027 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 627 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024


New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today, a strong upper level ridge will set up over the Southeast, with its axis becoming centered over Georgia in the afternoon hours.
As a surface high over northeast Florida similarly moves to the east, low-level winds will shift to primarily southerly by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move across the Great Plains to the north of the ridge pattern. As a cold front extending southward of the low moves eastward towards the Mississippi River Valley, increased upper level cloud coverage will begin to spread into north Georgia. Southerly winds will be strongest across northwest Georgia as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching front. Here, wind speeds will range from 10- 15 mph in the afternoon, as opposed to 6-12 mph elsewhere across the forecast area. In spite of the increased upper level cloud cover, subsidence under the ridge will lead to another day of well above average temperatures, with morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s and afternoon highs rising into the mid 80s. Relative humidity values in portions of north and west Georgia this afternoon are forecast to drop to minimums of around 25 percent in portions of north and west Georgia this afternoon. Considering dry 10-hour fuels after several days of dry conditions, locally stronger winds, and minimum RH values bordering on critical fire danger thresholds, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of far northwest Georgia for this afternoon as a precaution.

By Wednesday morning, the low pressure system is expected to track into the Great Lakes region, continuing to move north of the ridging pattern remaining over the Southeast. As the parent low moves northward into the Great Lakes, it will become occluded, limiting the southeastward advance of the cold front and keeping the best dynamics displaced well to the north of the forecast area. Scattered and thunderstorms are expected to enter northwest Georgia by mid- morning on Wednesday, eventually covering an area along and north of the I-20 corridor. While surface-based instability will support thunderstorms, with the strongest dynamics displaced to the north of Georgia, widespread severe weather is not expected.

King

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

At a glance:

- Rain chances return for the weekend

- Highs in the 80s likely through Saturday

As we enter the extended on Thursday, flow becomes quasi-zonal at the mid-levels. The eastward movement of a closed low rotating across central Canada will send several shortwaves (and accompanying pulses of moisture) across the Southeast Friday through Sunday, culminating in a full cold-frontal passage to kick off next week. As a result, slight to low-end chance PoPs will linger across a majority of the forecast area through the weekend. Like the system on Wednesday, not expecting big things as far as precipitation totals, and the multi-day total rainfall through the weekend currently stands at less than a half of an inch.

From Monday on, high pressure moves back in at the surface, and the mid-levels trend toward a more tranquil pattern. For now, it looks like a dry start to the work week.

Highs will be quite warm through Saturday -- in the 80s areawide -- which is as much as 8-14 degrees above average for late April.
Lows will be comparatively warm, in the upper 50s to 60s. In the wake of the front on Monday, expect a return to more seasonable (trending toward unseasonably cool) temperatures: highs in the 60s to lower- 70s, and lows in the upper-40s to 50s.

96

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Upper level clouds have increased in coverage and will continue to stream across the area through the remainder of the day. At this time, any ceilings that develop are expected to remain at 15 kft or above. Winds will be SW at 3-5 kts as the morning begins, shifting to nearly due S at 5-10 kts by 15Z. Winds are anticipated to remain just on the W side of due S the majority of the time, so wind directions have been maintained at 190 degrees this afternoon into the overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 61 82 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Atlanta 62 79 63 86 / 10 20 10 10 Blairsville 60 74 58 83 / 10 30 20 10 Cartersville 62 79 61 87 / 10 30 10 10 Columbus 62 84 63 87 / 0 10 10 10 Gainesville 62 79 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 Macon 61 84 63 88 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 62 79 61 86 / 10 40 10 10 Peachtree City 62 81 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 Vidalia 60 85 64 89 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Atlanta, GA,