Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Monica, CA

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...12/538 PM.

As of noon, cold front is well east of LA county, with widely scattered showers behind the front, mainly Santa Barbara county northward. With daytime heating, there may be just enough instability to trigger some isolated thunderstorm activity, so 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms looks appropriate for today.
Any thunderstorms that do develop could produce gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours.

As for winter weather issues, snow levels will drop to between 4500-6000 foot today into tonight, with little change on Monday.
This system will likely drop 3-6 inches of snow above 6000 feet by Monday morning. The snow showers along with southerly wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph are covered with a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY which includes the mtns of SBA/VTA/LA counties through Monday morning. There is a chance that the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will need to be extended through Monday afternoon due to another round of possible convective showers.

It will also be windy behind the front in areas other than the mountains. Most gusts, however will come in just under advisory levels. The exception will be the Antelope Valley foothills where a wind advisory is in effect through this evening.

The front has ushered in cooler air today and as a result max temps will end up mostly in the lower to mid 60s. These temps are 5 to 10 degrees lower than normal.

Another upper level disturbance with an associated vort max will push through the forecast area overnight into Monday. This will be associated with some cooling air aloft, with 500 mb temperatures falling to between -23 to -25 degrees celsius. As result, there will continue to be a chance of showers during this period, especially over the mountains. The best instability will occur in the afternoon hours, so may have included a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms for the LA/Ventura mountains and Antelope Valley foothills.

A drier northwest flow pattern will prevail Tuesday into Wednesday, with mostly clear conditions and a warming trend.
Coastal/valley highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s during that period.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/1149 AM.

An inside slider is expected to work its way down the state line on Thursday, followed by dry NW to N flow on Friday and Saturday. At the sfc there will be mostly onshore flow on Wednesday. Cannot rule out some coastal low clouds but other than that and some ocnl upper level clouds skies will be mostly clear.

The passage of the inside slider will bring a two day north wind event with advisory level gusts likely through the I-5 corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains.

The offshore wind push on Fri and Sat will result in 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day and will push coastal highs into the 70s and vly highs into the 80s on Saturday (3 to 6 degrees over normal). There is a small possibility of light rain returning to the region by next Sunday night or Monday, but the bulk of the rainfall will be focused across northern and central California.

AVIATION
13/0125Z.

At 0002Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. There will be a SCT-BKN050-080 deck through this evening, with mostly CAVU conditions expected tonight. Lower confidence in cigs for KLAX and KLGB, where there is a 30% chance of VFR conditions.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
12/1204 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday through Friday, high confidence in SCA level winds. On Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Friday, high confidence in SCA level winds, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a 20% chance of GALE force winds on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, especially across western portions. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for all areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds on Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM PDT Monday for zones 353-376>380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.