Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Monica, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...08/1207 PM.

Moderate heat risk is possible Sunday through Monday or Tuesday with an expected peak Monday except near the coast which will likely be sheltered by a stubborn but shrinking marine layer.
There is only a 20-30 percent chance that Heat Advisories will be needed for coastal valleys to interior as this will be short duration heat wave and most areas will experience comfortable overnight temperatures.

Persistent warming is anticipated each day through Monday as a stout ridge for May will build and peak by Monday with 500 mb heights near 588 dm. Moderate offshore trends with actual neutral to slightly offshore gradients will allow the heat to build into many coastal valleys Sunday into Monday. Peak heat of 90-100 will become common away from the coast during this period. The thermal belt below the ridge will support overnight lows only 65 to 75 at elevations of roughly 1500-3500 feet. Generally light winds during the peak of the heat will allow better temperature recoveries across valley floors with lows 55-60 common even where daytime highs are well into the 90s.

Breezy northwest to northeast winds will generally be below advisory levels but lead to heightened fire weather in combination with the warming and drying trends. The one exception is a low end wind advisory for this afternoon to evening for southwest Santa Barbara County.

The northwest winds will likely kick off another eddy tonight and maybe again into Sunday. This will somewhat offset the squashing effects of the building ridge and offshore trends to maintain marine layer presence, especially through Sunday. Dense fog may become more of a concern into Sunday or Monday where low clouds do form.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/1207 PM.

Cooling is expected in most areas Tuesday as the high pressure aloft weakens, which in turn will increase onshore flow. The onshore push may be strong enough for winds nearing advisory levels for the far interior, leading to heightened fire weather concerns. Highs will drop 4-8 degrees most areas, though desert areas may need to wait for Wednesday for more significant cooling.
By that time highs area- wide will be within a few degrees of normal.

Forecast confidence is below normal for later next week, although impacts will likely be low regardless with temperatures likely within 5 degrees of normal with night to morning low clouds and fog near the coast.

AVIATION
08/1811Z.

At 1714Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3300 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums by one category. Lowest confidence for KVNY & KBUR which has a 30% chance low-IFR CIGs do not arrive.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs around 018 expected to clear 19-20Z Fri. Patchy IFR CIGs to develop in the area around 04Z. Better coverage expected at 09Z (+/- 2 hours) with IFR CIGs 008. CIGs likely to lift to low MVFR around 15Z Sat.
Expecting clearing around 18Z Sat. However, there is a 30% chance CIGs 010 linger through fcst pd. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions expected through at least 09Z Sat. CIGs 004-008 could arrive 13Z-16Z, but confidence is low with a 30% chance it doesn't occur. No wind issues expected.

MARINE
08/149 PM.

SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day through Saturday for the outer waters. Winds may locally reach GALE Force across the far northern waters this evening. There is a 40-60% chance of GALES Saturday afternoon and evening over the northern two zones, near and NW of Point Conception. For the southern outer zone PZZ676, SCA winds are likely through early Sunday morning.

For the nearshore waters, SCA level winds are likely during the afternoon and evening hours especially along the Central Coast and near the Channel islands.

Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially across the outer waters - peaking 10 to 13 ft today through Saturday night.

Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).