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FXUS64 KBMX 040459 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1059 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1252 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2023

The cold front has cleared Central Alabama with westerly flow at the surface. Broken high cirrus clouds continue to stream overhead as southwesterly flow continues between 300 and 500mb. As upper level flow becomes more westerly with time, cirrus clouds should begin to thin out through the evening and overnight hours tonight.
Forecast temperatures remain on track to rise mostly into the 60s, with a few spots hitting the 70 degree mark in the far southeast counties.

A forecast challenge could be sneaking up on us tonight in the form of fog. High-res guidance is indicating favorable conditions for fog formation with mostly clear skies (aside from some high cirrus) and calm winds after midnight tonight. There appears to be a window of opportunity for fog formation before a secondary dry surface front arrives just before daybreak Monday morning. The best chance for fog formation will be in the river basins and valleys, plus locations that have received a good bit of rainfall over the past couple of days. We'll need to monitor observation trends closely to determine if any dense fog products will need to be issued overnight. A fast moving area of low pressure just to our north with a trailing cold front will move west to east across the region during the day on Monday. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air will move in behind the dry front with breezy westerly to northwesterly winds gusting between 20 and 25mph at times. Highs should range from the upper 50s in the far northwest to the upper 60s in the far southeast.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2023

The forecast is on track with the previous update. Tuesday through Friday will be dry in Central Alabama, with a dry front coming through late Tuesday bringing cooler air into the region for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday night will likely be in the lower 30s across much of the area and upper 20s in northeastern counties. A warming trend through the end of the week will precede the next rain chance, Saturday into Sunday. Timing will be refined in the coming days, but there is general agreement in increasing rain chances into Saturday across Central Alabama.

12

Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST SUN DEC 3 2023

A large area of upper-level troughing will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday. This will feature a zone of confluent flow aloft stretching from the Southern Plains through the Southeast. A coincident area of high pressure featuring continental air will be situated across the region. Our cool/dry conditions will be reinforced as a clipper system moves into the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. A trailing moisture-deprived cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley/Central Alabama Tuesday night - low temperatures in the 30s are forecast, though colder temperatures will hold off until Wednesday night when calm/clear conditions will promote efficient radiational cooling and cold air drainage. Valley locations will see temperatures in the 20s as a result. By Thursday, heights will begin to rise with associated airmass modification as low-level ridging moves to our east. This period of warming will persist through the end of the forecast period. Medium-range guidance is suggestive of a potent mid- to upper-level disturbance moving into the region on Saturday. Hence, PoPs are on the increase despite ongoing timing uncertainties. Progged boundary layer conditions ahead of the associated cold front preclude any thunderstorm mentioning at this time.

40/Sizemore

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST SUN DEC 3 2023

Lcl IFR vsbys due to fog will impact several of the airports thru 12Z. The sites will include TCL/TOI/ASN/ANB. After 13z, VFR conds will prevail with west sfc winds of 8-12kts with gusts to 18kts.

58/rose

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will persist through the week, with rain chances returning by Saturday. Min RH values this afternoon will be around 50-60 percent, with westerly 20 ft winds at 8-10 mph becoming 12-15 mph by Monday afternoon. Min RH values will be 40-50 percent Monday afternoon and 35 to 45 percent Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 42 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 45 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 46 60 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 46 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 46 62 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 48 64 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 49 65 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 49 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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