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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gadsden, AL

June 25, 2024 2:28 PM CDT (19:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 11:17 PM   Moonset 9:12 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gadsden, AL
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Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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197 FXUS64 KBMX 251811 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 111 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The 700mb portion of the ridge is centered just west of Central Alabama this afternoon, and we have a very hot and dry airmass across the area. Dewpoints have mixed efficiently into the upper 50s to mid 60s which is resulting in RH ranging from 25 to 35 percent as temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. Based on the trends, we`re aiming for another afternoon of highs in the upper 90s with some triple digit readings certainly possible amidst sunny skies.
Unfortunately, the miserable heat continues.

Short term models have really come into better agreement this morning on a brief breakdown in the ridge tomorrow as a low to mid- level trough moves across the region. A complex of thunderstorms is progged to developed along a cold front over the Midwest tomorrow morning and quickly advance south into the Midsouth region. Strong outflow driven storms will move into northern Mississippi by midday with additional thunderstorms expected to develop across western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon as moisture increases dramatically with the trough axis. In fact, PWATs will increase from ~1-1.25" in the morning up to ~2" by the afternoon. It appears that convection will spread eastward, but with decreasing intensity and coverage as we move into the later part of the day, so still expecting hot temperatures, especially for areas generally east of I-65.

The evolution of this thunderstorm complex and related nearby convective development is difficult to pinpoint at the moment given the mesoscale variability in this summertime pattern, but could see some potential for strong winds in these storms, mainly west of I-65 where they will be mostly outflow driven. Although progged wind shear values are weak, if model trends continue to favor some cold-pool driven storms across our west, then a risk of severe storms with damaging wind potential may need to be advertised in the forecast.

86/Martin

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Key message:

- Hot conditions return Friday through the rest of the period, with increasing humidity levels. Forecast heat indices are near 105 degrees Friday and Saturday, increasing to 105 to 110 degrees Sunday and Monday.

At least scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday night along convective outflows as a shortwave trough moves into the area. This shortwave will become more positively tilted on Thursday as ridging begins to build back eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. The progression of the trough and the drier air aloft moving in aloft behind it seem to have slowed slightly. The shortwave aloft and a trough at the surface should trigger scattered showers and storms across at least the southeast half of the area. The convection and associated cloudcover should keep highs generally in the lower 90s, but it will be more humid than recent days.

Strong subtropical ridging builds back over the area Friday and Saturday. This time higher PWATs will remain over the area meaning there will still be chances for scattered diurnal convection, though probably not enough coverage to have any widespread impacts on temperatures. Highs will be climbing back into the mid 90s and dew points will be higher than they have been recently, meaning heat indices will be around 105. The ridge retrogrades slightly Sunday and Monday, putting Central Alabama under northwest flow aloft. A front will attempt to approach the area, but the only effect will actually be to increase dew points as moisture pools south of the front. This will cause heat indices to increase to the 105-110 range. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible, potentially aided by the boundary to our north and weak impulses rotating around the ridge.

32/Davis

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Clear skies are in place across Central Alabama this afternoon.
Stable conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow morning as the ridge axis shifts east over the area with some increasing high cloud cover overnight. Flow is generally weak from the north at around 5 kts or less.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Hot conditions continue today with RH values dropping into the 25 to 35 percent range. A couple spots in East Alabama may drop below 25 percent but winds will be light. Moisture begins to increase from the west on Wednesday, but RH values in East Alabama will still drop into the 28 to 35 percent range. Rain-free conditions are expected today, with chances for showers and storms returning from the west on Wednesday. Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 67 99 69 93 / 0 20 40 40 Anniston 69 98 71 92 / 0 20 30 40 Birmingham 74 99 72 93 / 0 40 40 40 Tuscaloosa 74 96 72 93 / 0 60 50 30 Calera 72 98 72 94 / 0 40 40 40 Auburn 72 96 73 92 / 0 20 20 50 Montgomery 71 98 72 92 / 0 40 40 60 Troy 72 97 72 92 / 0 30 30 60

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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