Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gadsden, AL
May 18, 2024 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 181908 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 208 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
As has been the case the past 24 to 36 hours, the heaviest rain and convective activity has remained well to our south over the Gulf Coast region. A quasi-stationary boundary stretching from west to east along a New Orleans to Mobile to Dothan line continues to remain the focus for shower and storm development.
Southwesterly deep layer shear across the atmospheric profile and plenty of tropical moisture will keep strong to severe storms and flash flood potential across the Florida Panhandle and far southeastern Alabama through the morning.
Meanwhile, a surface low is spinning close to Memphis helping to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms as cooler air works in aloft. We should continue to see storm development as we go through the remainder of the day, spreading southeastward with time. Areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see the best coverage of showers and storms with sunshine starting to make an appearance following low clouds and fog early this morning. As low level instability increases, we'll see enough shear aloft (60kts at 500mb) with steep lapse rates to support strong to isolated severe storms. With unidirectional shear profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the hazards this afternoon through the early evening hours. Storms are expected to decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating during the evening hours tonight as the 500mb trough axis pushes off into Georgia.
We'll have to keep an eye on the potential for fog and low stratus development overnight tonight. High-res guidance is hinting that we may get enough clearing with calm winds for the development of fog between midnight tonight and sunrise Sunday morning. I've added in patchy fog in the forecast to trend that direction, but more widespread fog may need to be added in the next forecast update. Sunday will feature much drier conditions with northerly flow at 700mb. A surface ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will build southwestward by Sunday afternoon. What appears to be a "back door" surface boundary will creep westward into our far eastern counties, with some upper level shortwave energy to work with. A few isolated showers and perhaps a storm can't be ruled out across the far east as a result. Otherwise, everyone else will be dry and warm as upper heights begin to rise. Mid to upper 80s will be common for highs by Sunday afternoon.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
Central Alabama will transition into a drier and warmer pattern next week as an upper ridge builds across the Central Gulf Coast region. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and Wednesday. A northern stream short wave trough will push a weak cold front to near the Al/TN state line on Thursday. This will increase rain chances across north Alabama Thursday and Friday, with better chances for rain on Friday.
58/rose
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
Lower ceilings will continue to mix out between 16 and 18z, with most terminals observing VFR conditions through the afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA development is expected to impact northern terminals between 18z and 01z, with less coverage expected at MGM and TOI.
Amendments can be expected this afternoon, with rapid reductions in visibility due to heavy rains along with variably gusty winds within thunderstorms. SHRA/TSRA will decrease in coverage during the evening hours between 03z and 06z. Low clouds and/or fog is then expected to develop areawide after 09z with IFR ceilings.
Lower ceilings and fog should mix out between 13z and 15z Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected through 18z Sunday.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across Central Alabama through the evening hours, mainly south of I-20 after sunset. Areas of fog after midnight due to rain and moist low level conditions. A slight chance of storms across the far eastern counties on Sunday. Min RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent.
Light 20ft winds overnight become north 4-6 mph on Sunday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 61 85 61 85 / 40 20 0 0 Anniston 62 84 62 85 / 50 20 0 0 Birmingham 63 85 65 86 / 40 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 87 65 88 / 30 0 0 0 Calera 64 85 65 85 / 40 10 0 0 Auburn 64 82 64 82 / 50 20 0 0 Montgomery 65 85 65 85 / 50 10 0 0 Troy 65 84 64 85 / 40 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 208 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
As has been the case the past 24 to 36 hours, the heaviest rain and convective activity has remained well to our south over the Gulf Coast region. A quasi-stationary boundary stretching from west to east along a New Orleans to Mobile to Dothan line continues to remain the focus for shower and storm development.
Southwesterly deep layer shear across the atmospheric profile and plenty of tropical moisture will keep strong to severe storms and flash flood potential across the Florida Panhandle and far southeastern Alabama through the morning.
Meanwhile, a surface low is spinning close to Memphis helping to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms as cooler air works in aloft. We should continue to see storm development as we go through the remainder of the day, spreading southeastward with time. Areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see the best coverage of showers and storms with sunshine starting to make an appearance following low clouds and fog early this morning. As low level instability increases, we'll see enough shear aloft (60kts at 500mb) with steep lapse rates to support strong to isolated severe storms. With unidirectional shear profiles, isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the hazards this afternoon through the early evening hours. Storms are expected to decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating during the evening hours tonight as the 500mb trough axis pushes off into Georgia.
We'll have to keep an eye on the potential for fog and low stratus development overnight tonight. High-res guidance is hinting that we may get enough clearing with calm winds for the development of fog between midnight tonight and sunrise Sunday morning. I've added in patchy fog in the forecast to trend that direction, but more widespread fog may need to be added in the next forecast update. Sunday will feature much drier conditions with northerly flow at 700mb. A surface ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will build southwestward by Sunday afternoon. What appears to be a "back door" surface boundary will creep westward into our far eastern counties, with some upper level shortwave energy to work with. A few isolated showers and perhaps a storm can't be ruled out across the far east as a result. Otherwise, everyone else will be dry and warm as upper heights begin to rise. Mid to upper 80s will be common for highs by Sunday afternoon.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
Central Alabama will transition into a drier and warmer pattern next week as an upper ridge builds across the Central Gulf Coast region. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and Wednesday. A northern stream short wave trough will push a weak cold front to near the Al/TN state line on Thursday. This will increase rain chances across north Alabama Thursday and Friday, with better chances for rain on Friday.
58/rose
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024
Lower ceilings will continue to mix out between 16 and 18z, with most terminals observing VFR conditions through the afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA development is expected to impact northern terminals between 18z and 01z, with less coverage expected at MGM and TOI.
Amendments can be expected this afternoon, with rapid reductions in visibility due to heavy rains along with variably gusty winds within thunderstorms. SHRA/TSRA will decrease in coverage during the evening hours between 03z and 06z. Low clouds and/or fog is then expected to develop areawide after 09z with IFR ceilings.
Lower ceilings and fog should mix out between 13z and 15z Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected through 18z Sunday.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across Central Alabama through the evening hours, mainly south of I-20 after sunset. Areas of fog after midnight due to rain and moist low level conditions. A slight chance of storms across the far eastern counties on Sunday. Min RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent.
Light 20ft winds overnight become north 4-6 mph on Sunday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 61 85 61 85 / 40 20 0 0 Anniston 62 84 62 85 / 50 20 0 0 Birmingham 63 85 65 86 / 40 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 87 65 88 / 30 0 0 0 Calera 64 85 65 85 / 40 10 0 0 Auburn 64 82 64 82 / 50 20 0 0 Montgomery 65 85 65 85 / 50 10 0 0 Troy 65 84 64 85 / 40 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGAD NORTHEAST ALABAMA RGNL,AL | 6 sm | 60 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 29.84 |
Northern Alabama,
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