Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Sherwood, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:43PM Monday February 17, 2020 2:49 PM PST (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:13AMMoonset 1:31PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 216 Pm Pst Mon Feb 17 2020
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less after midnight.
Tue..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 ft. Slight chance of showers.
PZZ600 216 Pm Pst Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z or 1 pm pst, a 1032 mb surface high was located 400 nm W of portland. A 1011 mb low was centered in nw mexico.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Sherwood, CA
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location: 34.04, -119.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 172140 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 140 PM PST Mon Feb 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. 17/750 AM.

Periods of gusty northerly winds are possible today, especially over the western Santa Barbara South Coast and through the Interstate 5 corridor. A sub-advisory Santa Ana wind event will develop late tonight into Tuesday. High temperatures will fluctuate around normal through much of the week. There will be a slight chance of showers early next weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU). 17/140 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short-term period. Main issues with the forecast will be the potential for offshore winds and temperatures.

For tonight/Tuesday, models indicate lowering H5 heights as a weak disturbance moves into far northern California. Main impact of this pattern will be to develop surface high pressure over the Great Basin which will result in some northeasterly winds across the area. NAM is noticeably stronger with offshore gradients (LAX-DAG -4.3 mb Tuesday morning) than other models. Will split the difference between these solutions and go with the idea of weak northeasterly winds. So, will not anticipate any widespread advisory level northeast winds across the area with the "strongest" winds across Ventura/LA counties mountains. With this pattern, there will be some partly cloudy skies as some cirrus clouds drift overhead. In terms of marine layer stratus/fog, expect offshore flow to generally keep stratus at bay although some stratus/dense fog will be possible overnight across the LA coastal plain. As for temperatures, the offshore flow should allow for a few degrees warming west of the mountains.

For Tuesday night/Wednesday, weak onshore flow returns to the area. So, will anticipate more widespread night/morning stratus and fog across the coastal plain (both north and south of Point Conception). Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail. With the weak onshore gradients and more marine influence, many areas will cool several degrees on Wednesday.

For Wednesday night/Thursday, weak upper level trough will move over the area while offshore flow returns near the surface. Once again, NAM is noticeably stronger with offshore gradients than other models. So, high confidence in return of northeasterly winds, but low confidence in strength/areal extent of winds. With this pattern, skies should remain mostly clear as offshore flow keeps stratus/fog from developing. As for temperatures, the combo of offshore flow and higher H5 heights will allow for several degrees of warming for many areas.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 17/140 PM.

For Friday/Saturday, models still indicate an upper low will towards the CA coast on Friday then move across our area Friday night and Saturday morning before exiting east Saturday afternoon. As expected, models still have some differences in the track of the upper low with the ECMWF indicating a track a bit further south than the GFS. Either solution is rather limited with moisture, so do not anticipate widespread significant rain. At this time, will go with slight chance POPs for Ventura/LA counties Friday night/Saturday morning with dry conditions for SLO/SBA counties. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be very light (generally less than 0.10 inches). Given the exact timing and track of the low, instability could increase to the point of generating the possibility of thunderstorms. However, it's still too early to mention any thunderstorm threat in the official forecast.

For Sunday/Monday, broad northwesterly flow will develop over the area. So, will anticipate dry conditions for the area with mostly clear skies. With the clear skies and increasing H5 heights, temperatures will rebound a few degrees.

AVIATION. 17/1924Z.

At 1809Z, the marine layer depth was around 300 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2500 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees Celsius.

Areas of low clouds and fog, locally dense, affected coastal sections of L.A. County and the Santa Ynez Valley early this morning, and probably will do so again Tue morning. Conds will be mostly LIFR to VLIFR. Expect low clouds and fog to be confined mainly to coastal sections of L.A. County tonight with IFR to LIFR conds expected.

KLAX . Low confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance that skies will remain clear tonight.

KBUR . High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions expected thru the period.

MARINE. 17/1217 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds continue across the outer waters zones (PZZ670/673/676) this morning. Winds and seas are expected to remain at or above SCA levels through late tonight. Good confidence that winds and seas will then remain below SCA levels Tue through Thu.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, SCA level NW winds are not expected this afternoon through Thu.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Generally high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Thompson AVIATION . Sweet/DB MARINE . Sweet SYNOPSIS . Stewart

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 19 mi30 min WNW 1.9 G 5.8 60°F 60°F1013.2 hPa57°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 25 mi54 min 64°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 29 mi50 min 58°F 61°F1013.2 hPa (-2.4)
46251 33 mi50 min 60°F4 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 42 mi74 min S 5.1 G 8 59°F 1013.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi30 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 59°F1013.2 hPa57°F
PXAC1 46 mi62 min S 5.1 G 6
BAXC1 47 mi62 min SE 6 G 7
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 47 mi50 min 61°F1013.1 hPa (-2.5)
AGXC1 48 mi62 min SW 9.9 G 11
PFDC1 48 mi62 min S 8 G 9.9
PSXC1 48 mi62 min S 7 G 8.9
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 49 mi27 min 63°F3 ft
PFXC1 49 mi62 min SSW 9.9 G 11

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA7 mi58 minSW 88.00 miA Few Clouds62°F54°F75%1013.4 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA12 mi55 minSW 89.00 miFair66°F53°F63%1013.5 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA14 mi59 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds61°F54°F78%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNTD

Wind History from NTD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW7S4SE3NE3E4NE4CalmNE5NE3N3CalmNE3NE5NE4N4N5N4CalmCalmS7S8S9SW8
1 day agoSW7W5W5W4CalmCalmNE4NE3NE4N5NE5NE4CalmN3NE4CalmN4NE5NE3N33S7SW8SW7
2 days agoW8W7W5W6NW4E3E5NE4NE5N5N6N3N3N5NE3N5NE3NE4N3CalmS8S10S11SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California
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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:12 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:22 AM PST     5.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:09 PM PST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:30 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:41 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:49 PM PST     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:13 PM PST     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.44.14.754.94.53.82.81.80.90.2-00.10.61.32.12.73.13.23.12.82.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:29 AM PST     5.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:11 PM PST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:30 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:56 PM PST     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:15 PM PST     2.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.54.24.75.15.14.73.92.91.90.90.3-00.10.61.32.12.73.13.33.12.92.62.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.