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FXUS65 KPSR 020011 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 511 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE
00Z Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Broad upper level troughing will continue to shift east over the next few days. Most of the precipitation has ended across our CWA, however, some lingering isolated light showers are possible in the Arizona high terrain through the afternoon. Below normal temperatures will stick around through Saturday with the lower deserts seeing daily afternoon highs in the 60s. A high amplitude ridge will begin to build over the region on Sunday, marking the beginning of a noticeable warming trend. High temperatures will rise above normal on Monday and will even reach near 80 degrees by the middle of the week. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through at least next Friday.

.DISCUSSION… Mid-lvl IR WV imagery and streamline analysis shows broad troughing aloft is in place across western CONUS. The shortwave trough that brought widely scattered showers to south-central Arizona overnight and this morning has begun to lift and push eastward. While most of the CWA will remain dry for the remainder of today, hi-res guidance shows some isolated light rain showers lingering through the afternoon across the Arizona high terrain.
Any additional rainfall will remain light. Broad troughing aloft will slowly begin to lift and push east of our region throughout the day today and tomorrow. These lower heights aloft will keep our temperatures below normal with daily high temperatures being in the 60s across the lower deserts and in the 50s in the higher terrain through Saturday.

A high amplitude ridge will start to build over the western CONUS on Sunday. Clear skies during the overnight hours will allow for cooler mornings through Monday with the daily morning lows being right around normal. Saturday-Monday will be the coldest mornings over the next week with daily morning lows in the low-to-mid 40s across much of the lower deserts and in the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s across the rural deserts and higher terrain. With the ridge building over the region on Sunday our afternoon high temperatures will be able to rebound back to right around normal.

Global ensembles are in agreement with the high amplitude ridge to continue to build and strengthen over our region early next week.
This will lead to a rapid increase in temperatures. Our daily afternoon high temperatures look to go back above normal by Monday with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s across the lower deserts and mid-to-upper 60s across the higher terrain. Global ensemble models are in agreement with this high amplitude ridge sticking around through the majority of next week. This will allow for daily afternoon temperatures to go well above normal by the middle of the week. The lower deserts will see daily afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s with some locations possibly reaching 80 degrees Tuesday-Thursday. Phoenix daily afternoon high temperatures will be within 2-3 degrees of tying the record high Tuesday-Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day next week as the NBM is giving portions of the lower deserts, including the Phoenix Metro, a 20-40% chance of reaching 80 degrees.

Beyond Thursday, global ensembles are in good agreement that a trough will start to move into western CONUS on Friday and heading into the weekend. These ensemble models are in disagreement, however, with the exact timing and strength of this trough. Next weekend does look to be our next chance of rain, however, it is still too far out to know exact details on timing and QPF amounts.
Either way, this trough will bring in cooler air allowing our temperatures to cool off to near or slightly above normal heading into next weekend.

AVIATION
Updated at 0010Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. FEW low clouds aoa 5 kft remain in the vicinity and will continue clearing out through this evening. Typical diurnal wind patterns are expected with an easterly shift occurring around 05-07Z at KPHX and a westerly shift tomorrow afternoon. Speeds will be light aob 6 kts sustained.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Light W to SW winds will prevail at KIPL overnight, whereas directions will favor NW'rly at KBLH through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow during the day, very light and VRB winds aob 4 kts will prevail through the end of the TAF period. FEW-SCT passing high clouds aoa 20 kft are expected as early as 14Z and will likely clear by late morning.

FIRE WEATHER
A weather system moving through the region today will bring continued chances for precipitation mainly across the Arizona high terrain through this afternoon. Below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend as drier air gradually takes over across the region. After MinRHs today above 35-40%, humidities will fall through this weekend with MinRHs between 20-30% by Sunday. Winds will overall remain light over the next few days, following somewhat of a typical diurnal pattern. By late in the weekend into the first half of next week, high pressure will take over leading to a return of above normal temperatures by around Monday.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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