Parker, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker, AZ

June 18, 2024 8:48 PM MST (03:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM
Moonrise 4:59 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 182337 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 437 PM MST Tue Jun 18 2024

UPDATE
00Z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Near normal temperatures the next couple of days will warm back into an above normal regime during the latter half of the week as strong high pressure builds back into the region. The warmest temperatures should spread into the south-central Arizona lower deserts where an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect Thursday and Friday. The evolving pattern will also promote a moisture increase across eastern Arizona later in the week supporting isolated mountain storms and gusty, outflow winds descending into lower desert communities.

DISCUSSION
Pronounced troughing continues over the western Conus with a midtropospheric front actually sliding into northern Arizona as H5 heights have retreated to around 582dm resulting in temperatures near the daily normal. However, this pattern will not be maintained as the Conus synoptic setup undergoes a retrogressive evolution allowing anomalously strong mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley ridging to build back into the SW Conus. Meanwhile, a large, unorganized tropical gyre in the western Gulf of Mexico will also be absorbed into this retrogressive regime traveling into central/northern Mexico with an attendant, thick midlevel moisture plume. Eventually degrading into an inverted easterly wave, this feature will support a moisture surge up the Rio Grande Valley aided by an enhanced pressure gradient on the western periphery of the incoming ridge axis. The eastern half of the CWA will experience the largest impacts from this evolution with 50F+ dewpoints advecting westward Thursday morning juxtaposed with unusually strong, gusty east winds during the morning hours.

As the H5 ridge spreads westward Thursday and coincident with the theta-e surge, heights should increase to at least 590dm with a tendency towards a 592-594dm range over the weekend. This will yield another warming trend with high HeatRisk and excessive criteria likely becoming breached on Friday around the Phoenix metro. While NBM guidance spreads are rather narrow, greater uncertainty exists considering the potential impacts from thunderstorm outflows and convective consequences (i.e. overturning and residual cloud cover).
Latest NBM temperature foreasts have cooled a few degrees and overall major HeatRisk remains rather localized and not particularly resounding. Have kept the excessive heat watch in tact given these uncertainties and more marginal coverage and intensity. The heat dome will continue to impact the region through the weekend with any higher terrain monsoon activity providing little relief over the lower elevations. In fact, NAEFS mean output suggests ridging may strengthen and shift into northern Mexico early next week resulting in a return to more widespread excessive heat.

The seasons first chance of monsoon showers and thunderstorms should affect higher terrain locations through the weekend as sfc-H7 mixing ratios reach at least 8 g/kg (and possibly as high as 10 g/kg).
Based on the lower end of moisture intrusion, isolated to scattered mountain convection is likely, albeit with somewhat limited rainfall amounts over higher terrain, then decay before reaching lower deserts. However, mixing ratios closer to 10 g/kg would support some storms being maintained into lower elevations with a more robust rainfall potential over the eastern CWA While the prevailing SW midlevel flow would typically support storms moving away from the heart of the forecast area, DCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg combined with prevailing east flow in the sfc-H8 layer and instability pool at lower elevations would support storms and organized outflows pushing into the Phoenix metro. The most likely outcome points towards very gusty outflow winds and localized blowing dust periodically affecting south-central Arizona Thursday through Sunday. This first round of monsoon activity may only last into early next week as guidance favors strengthening high pressure ridging sinking south next week - mostly directly over southern AZ/northern Mexico cutting off the better quality moisture source.

AVIATION
Updated at 2335Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: VFR conditions with clear skies will continue through the TAF period. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal patterns with speeds generally remaining aob 10 kts. Winds will return out of the ESE late tonight, becoming S-SE late tomorrow morning before ultimately shifting out of the WSW in the afternoon.
Periods of light and vrb will be possible at KSDL and KDVT overnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at KIPL are expected to remain out of the W tonight until shifting back out of the SE tomorrow morning. There may be a brief period of sundowner winds with gusts up to 18-20 kt, but winds should relax after 06Z. At KBLH, winds will continue out of the WNW this evening before shifting out of the south overnight.
Mostly clear skies will continue across the region.

FIRE WEATHER
Near normal temperatures through midweek will warm back into an above normal category as the first signs of monsoon flow and moisture return affect eastern districts late this week through early next week. Through Wednesday, widespread dry conditions will prevail with minimum afternoon humidity levels 10-15% following poor to fair overnight recovery of 15-45%. Moisture will surge into eastern districts Thursday morning allowing minimum RH to only fall around 25% with fair to good overnight recovery of 40-75%. Western districts will likely not experience much better moisture, and the drier regime will persist. The moisture surge will be accompanied by unusually strong easterly winds Thursday morning (gusts 25-35 mph during an unlikely morning time frame) with speeds gradually weakening into the weekend. With the moisture increase, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible over higher terrain areas of eastern districts. Lightning with low wetting rain chances combined with erratic, gusty outflow winds are significant concerns for eastern districts this weekend.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for AZZ534-537>555-559.

CA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBLH37 sm56 minS 0510 smClear99°F27°F8%29.58
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