Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker, AZ
May 16, 2024 8:21 PM MST (03:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 1:26 PM Moonset 2:08 AM |
FXUS65 KPSR 170008 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 508 PM MST Thu May 16 2024
UPDATE
Updated Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with lower desert highs warming a few more degrees before peaking at just over 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected again today over the eastern Arizona high country, which could cause some erratic gusty winds reaching the lower deserts of south-central Arizona.
A slight cooling trend and continued dry conditions are forecast for the first half of next week with temperatures likely falling back to near normal.
DISCUSSION
Latest satellite imagery and local area radars indicate residual showers left over from early morning convection are now progressing into southern AZ. New convection is now firing over the Mogollon Rim indicated by a large cu field on visible satellite. These showers are associated with a weak shortwave/mesovortex which is embedded in northerly flow on the back side of a larger scale trough. Steering flow at 500 mb is still out of the N-NW which will allow showers to drift southward into E Maricopa and S Gila County this afternoon and early evening. Mid-level lapse rates are still rather steep around 8 deg C/km with MU CAPE values up to 250 J/kg across southcentral AZ which could result in a few stronger cells capable of producing gusty outflow winds over 30 mph and pea sized hail. Chances are low (10-30%) for an outflow boundary to reach Phoenix this evening and any realistic rain chances will be confined to S Gila County where PoPs range from 15-25%. As we lose daytime heating, shower/storm activity will diminish around sunset. A quiet night is expected across the region with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Heading into this weekend, 500 mb hghts are expected to rise to around 582-585 dam Friday and Saturday which will result in temperatures pushing 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Highs both days will reach the upper 90s to triple digits across the lower deserts, resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk. The hottest day looks to be Saturday with a forecast high of 103 degrees in Phoenix. If you have any outdoor plans, please limit time in the sun and drink plenty of water. On Sunday, model guidance suggest a large trough is expected move into the Pacific Northwest, helping to suppress the ridge over our region. Temperatures will decrease slightly Sunday afternoon, but will still remain around 3 to 5 degrees above normal in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
From Monday into early next week, most ensemble members continue to show another upper level trough digging southward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and absorbing a weak low off the coast of Baja California. This pattern will result in a decrease in hghts aloft and lower temperatures across the Desert Southwest. By Monday afternoon, we will see highs back around normal in the mid to upper 90s and near normal temperatures will likely carry into mid- week as an overall troughing pattern remains in place. There could be increased breeziness early next week, however gusts will likely remain aob 20 kts each afternoon.
AVIATION
Updated at 0008Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continues to weaken with one weakening outflow boundary east of KIWA. Expect shower activity to continue to dissipate this evening with KIWA standing the best of seeing an outflow reach the terminal, though still quite uncertain.
Otherwise, winds through the TAF period will favor more typical light, diurnal tendencies with periods of variability and occasional afternoon gusts to around 15-20 kts tomorrow. FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft will give way to SKC conditions later this evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will favor a westerly component throughout the period with extended periods of light and variable winds beginning tomorrow morning. At KBLH, southerly winds will persist with elevated speeds this evening sustained around 10-15 kts. Otherwise, SKC conditions will persist.
FIRE WEATHER
Another round of high-based afternoon showers and isolated storms will be possible, mainly across the higher terrain areas of Maricopa and S Gila Counties. The main impacts with any storm that develops will be gusty, erratic winds and dry lightning. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected this weekend with highs topping out around 6 to 8 degrees above average. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop this weekend, especially on Sunday where winds may gust as high as 25-35 mph across the lower deserts and up around 40 mph in the higher terrain. A dry weather system will arrive early next week, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and continued breezy conditions. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-20% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 508 PM MST Thu May 16 2024
UPDATE
Updated Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with lower desert highs warming a few more degrees before peaking at just over 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected again today over the eastern Arizona high country, which could cause some erratic gusty winds reaching the lower deserts of south-central Arizona.
A slight cooling trend and continued dry conditions are forecast for the first half of next week with temperatures likely falling back to near normal.
DISCUSSION
Latest satellite imagery and local area radars indicate residual showers left over from early morning convection are now progressing into southern AZ. New convection is now firing over the Mogollon Rim indicated by a large cu field on visible satellite. These showers are associated with a weak shortwave/mesovortex which is embedded in northerly flow on the back side of a larger scale trough. Steering flow at 500 mb is still out of the N-NW which will allow showers to drift southward into E Maricopa and S Gila County this afternoon and early evening. Mid-level lapse rates are still rather steep around 8 deg C/km with MU CAPE values up to 250 J/kg across southcentral AZ which could result in a few stronger cells capable of producing gusty outflow winds over 30 mph and pea sized hail. Chances are low (10-30%) for an outflow boundary to reach Phoenix this evening and any realistic rain chances will be confined to S Gila County where PoPs range from 15-25%. As we lose daytime heating, shower/storm activity will diminish around sunset. A quiet night is expected across the region with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Heading into this weekend, 500 mb hghts are expected to rise to around 582-585 dam Friday and Saturday which will result in temperatures pushing 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Highs both days will reach the upper 90s to triple digits across the lower deserts, resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk. The hottest day looks to be Saturday with a forecast high of 103 degrees in Phoenix. If you have any outdoor plans, please limit time in the sun and drink plenty of water. On Sunday, model guidance suggest a large trough is expected move into the Pacific Northwest, helping to suppress the ridge over our region. Temperatures will decrease slightly Sunday afternoon, but will still remain around 3 to 5 degrees above normal in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
From Monday into early next week, most ensemble members continue to show another upper level trough digging southward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and absorbing a weak low off the coast of Baja California. This pattern will result in a decrease in hghts aloft and lower temperatures across the Desert Southwest. By Monday afternoon, we will see highs back around normal in the mid to upper 90s and near normal temperatures will likely carry into mid- week as an overall troughing pattern remains in place. There could be increased breeziness early next week, however gusts will likely remain aob 20 kts each afternoon.
AVIATION
Updated at 0008Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continues to weaken with one weakening outflow boundary east of KIWA. Expect shower activity to continue to dissipate this evening with KIWA standing the best of seeing an outflow reach the terminal, though still quite uncertain.
Otherwise, winds through the TAF period will favor more typical light, diurnal tendencies with periods of variability and occasional afternoon gusts to around 15-20 kts tomorrow. FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft will give way to SKC conditions later this evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will favor a westerly component throughout the period with extended periods of light and variable winds beginning tomorrow morning. At KBLH, southerly winds will persist with elevated speeds this evening sustained around 10-15 kts. Otherwise, SKC conditions will persist.
FIRE WEATHER
Another round of high-based afternoon showers and isolated storms will be possible, mainly across the higher terrain areas of Maricopa and S Gila Counties. The main impacts with any storm that develops will be gusty, erratic winds and dry lightning. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected this weekend with highs topping out around 6 to 8 degrees above average. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop this weekend, especially on Sunday where winds may gust as high as 25-35 mph across the lower deserts and up around 40 mph in the higher terrain. A dry weather system will arrive early next week, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and continued breezy conditions. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-20% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Yuma, AZ,
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