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FXUS62 KCAE 021900 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 200 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure will move northeast from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Appalachians through tonight and early Sunday, providing a chance for showers. Drier air will enter northern areas Sunday afternoon, while central and southern areas will see a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday ahead of a weak front that will come through Sunday evening. Expect drier and slightly cooler air for Monday, under breezy conditions. Continued dry with near normal temps Tuesday.
A dry cold front will come through Tuesday night, and bring in cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday, with breezy conditions possible again Wednesday. Expect fair weather with a gradual warming trend Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Its a cloudy and warm afternoon across the forecast area as a stationary boundary remains draped across the region. Much of the CWA has avoided the rain thus far today as most of the precipitation has passed to our south and east. Still expect light rain to fall over much of the area this evening as the next batch of precipitation moves in from the southwest. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly with the only Likely category values in the southeastern FA. Temperatures have remained largely on track today and highs should peak in the mid-60s to lower 70s.
The threat for scattered showers continue into the overnight hours as a wave of low pressure rides along the aforementioned boundary. Temperatures struggle to fall due to the rain and clouds with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mean upper trough axis to remain over the central CONUS with a SW flow aloft remaining for our region Sunday. Surface wave of low pressure will be moving farther off to our NE, with a trailing front to come through Sunday evening. Drier air, with lower PWs, will enter northern areas late Sunday afternoon.
Across mainly the southern half of the forecast area (FA), moisture and weak instability will provide for a chance of showers, and possibly isolated thunderstorms. Drier air to continue filtering in Sunday night and Monday. The air mass behind this front/trough is not very cool, and with a continued SW flow aloft, it will take a while for the cooler air to make its way over the mountains. As a result, though lower than Sunday, max temps Monday forecast to still be above normal. An upper trough and surface low will move east across the Ohio/TN Valley to the Central Apps Monday, with a trailing reinforcing dry cold front to approach. The surface pressure gradient between these features, and surface high pressure over TX, may result in breezy conditions Monday. A Lake Wind Advisory may be required.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upper trough will dig SE from the Mid Miss/Ohio Valley across the Carolinas Tuesday/Tue nt/early Wed, with a dry reinforcing cold front coming through late Tue nt. This system will not have any significant moisture to work with, with PW values 0.5 inch or lower. Low pressure expected to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday, with surface high pressure still well to our west. Resulting increasing surface pressure gradient may result in breezy conditions possible again Wednesday. Behind this front, some Canadian air will bring in cooler temps, with temps falling below normal, and surface high pressure building into our region, or just to our south, Wed nt/Thu. Upper trough to shift to our east Thursday through Saturday while an upper trough shifts east into the Rockies, with some rising upper heights and weak upper ridging over our region. A front appears will remain stalled to our north, which may possibly back door down the eastern seaboard. PW values progged to remain below normal through at least Friday. Gradual air mass modification to result in temps trending upward. Current indications are that an approaching weather system and increasing moisture could affect our region just beyond the current forecast period, for next Sat nt/Sun.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Behind this front, some Canadian air will bring in cooler temps, with temps falling below normal. Generally VFR conditions anticipated through around 22z, then conditions deteriorate quickly to IFR/LIFR by around 00z.

Stationary front northwest of the terminals. Front expected to remain stationary overnight. VFR conditions at 18z with mid level ceilings, although expect widespread strato-cumulus to develop. Low-level moisture flux expected to increase along with some lift late this afternoon into the overnight. The focus for showers appears to be across the southeastern Midlands and CSRA...AGS to OGB overnight, with lighter precipitation north to near CAE. With the increase in low-level moisture, expect ceilings to fall rather quickly around 00z to IFR conditions.
Guidance is indicating visibility restrictions mainly focused in the MVFR range, possibly lower in any showers. After 12z Sunday, ceilings will be slow to improve. A cold front will be approaching from the west and scattered showers are expected as the front approaches toward 18z Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Prevailing VFR conditions develop late Sunday or Sunday Night behind the front lasting through Thursday. Breezy conditions possible Monday and Wednesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Sat -- 01:31 AM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sat -- 02:14 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:35 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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